Sector Update | Banking The Sumatra floods have caused severe local disruptions and exacted a tragic humanitarian toll, resulting in a GDP drag of 0.1% in 4Q25. Banking-system exposure is modest at 5% of loans, with near-term pressure concentrated in micro and SME borrowers. Provisioning may rise slightly in 1Q26 but remains manageable given strong sector buffers. Exposure varies across banks, with BRIS and BBRI being the most affected. Despite short-term noise, the event does not alter the sect...
Economics | Directive Approach, Structural Limits: Assessing Indonesia's New Forex Proceed Rules Indonesia's 2026 revision of its export proceeds (DHE) rules mandates that all export earnings be placed exclusively in state-owned banks, while cutting the rupiah conversion limit to 50%. This state-directed strategy aims to mechanically boost forex reserves and stabilise the onshore currency market. However, it risks distorting the banking sector, creating liabilities for state banks and squeezing ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
Company Results | Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp4,650/Target: Rp5,150) BMRI’s 3Q25 earnings recovered after the 2Q25 audit adjustment, supported by strong non-interest income and a slight opex decline. NIM is guided to remain at 4.8-5.0%, while loan growth and opex should normalise in 2026. Asset quality is stable, although the low LLR indicates CoC could move toward the upper end of 80-100bp range as loans expand. We maintain BUY with an unchanged Rp5,150 target price and 7.0% dividend yield (DPR...
Sector Update | Consumer Our ground checks suggest improving business sentiment following Purbaya’s appointment, as his pro-growth and consultative stance has begun to restore optimism. Macro indicators point to firmer momentum toward the year-end, supported by typical seasonality and more accommodative fiscal measures that should reinforce consumption-led growth. We re-iterate our tactical allocation to big-cap laggards and consumer names. Top picks: JPFA, CMRY and AMRT. Company Results | Bank...
Greater China Sector Update | Internet The growing robotaxi ecosystem is drawing in an increasing number of new entrants, including autonomous service providers and ride-hailing platforms. We expect technological maturity, policy support, and better fleet economics to drive a major expansion wave for the robotaxi industry into 2H25/2026, with China’s robotaxi fleet size expected to grow ten-fold during this period. We see material development and monetisation progress of Robotaxi, sparking r...
Highlights • Kopdes is policy-driven but earnings-light, with an estimated 1% ROA before tax and credit costs (vs SOE banks’ >2% ROA); impact remains immaterial at Rp16t but will become more meaningful and riskier as disbursement scales up. • Governance risk is high, and while DigiKop and Task Force may enhance transparency and reduce misuse, failure to strengthen oversight could lead to elevated credit risk, profit erosion, and deeper ROA dilutions. • Maintain OVERWEIGHT, with accelerating loan...
Sector Update | Banking The government has launched the Rp16t Kopdes scheme through SOE banks at a fixed 6% lending rate to support cooperatives. While framed as inclusive financing, Kopdes is structurally earnings-light, generating about 1% ROA (vs >2% for SOE banks). The impact is negligible at the current scale, but dilution risk will rise if allocations expand without stronger credit discipline. Oversight via DigiKop and the joint task force is directionally positive, though execution remain...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
Highlights • 2Q25 net profit fell 14.7% qoq (-18.7% yoy), driven by a one-off opex adjustment after the audit, lifting CIR to 44.5% in 1H25 (1H24:40.8%). • Management expects CIR to normalise at 40% in 2026, but CoC should return to ≥1% and delay full ROE recovery, leaving ROE at 17-18% vs our previous forecast of 19-20%. • Maintain BUY with a lower target price of Rp5,150 on lower earnings and ROE assumption; its valuation at 1.3x P/B (-1.4SD) offers an attractive entry into high-teens ROE and ...
Company Results | Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp4,380/Target: Rp5,150) BMRI’s 2Q25 net profit dropped 14.7% qoq due to a one-off adjustment after audit activity, lifting CIR to 44.5%. Management expects CIR to normalise to about 40% in 2026, although ROE will stabilise at 17-18% as CoC rises back to ≥1%. We cut earnings for 2025 by 10% and for 2026 by 5.2%. With BMRI trading at 1.3x P/B with a 7.4% dividend yield, we maintain BUY with a reduced target price of Rp5,150. Technical Analysis Astra In...
Greater China Sector Update | Internet Following the release of 2Q25 results, the market has started to re-value AI-related and ad-tech upgrade themes. The AI theme garnered the most interest, attributable to: a) re-accelerated cloud revenue growth, b) the emergence of AI agents, c) broader AI application, and d) development of self-sufficient chips. Potential beneficiaries of the AI theme poised for continuous re-rating include Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu. Tongcheng could see robust travel ...
Strategy: Impact Of Cabinet Reshuffle There are changes in the formation of ministers, with the Minister of Finance being a notable replacement. Share prices for big banks go down while cigarette stocks are up. The 2026 budget outlook and fiscal stance are key catalysts. Company Update | Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp3,610/Target: Rp4,000) ANTM’s 2H25 production is set to slow on supply constraints, with 2025 gold sales guided at about 43.8 tonnes (similar to 2024 level) and nickel ore at arou...
Greater China Economics | Trade China’s export momentum softened in August as front-loaded US demand has faded, exposing the vulnerability of shipments to the US market. While the trade diversion supported flows to ASEAN and the EU, overall growth moderated. Imports also weakened amid subdued agricultural demand, despite firmer commodity-related inflows. Pro...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb13.83/Target: Rmb16.70) 1H25: Satisfactory results; seeking growth by improving service capability and operating efficiency. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/HOLD/Rmb71.41/Target: Rmb75.30) 2Q25: Net profit down 32% yoy and 66% qoq; fair valuation. Downgrade to HOLD. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$14.47/Target: HK$17.00) 1H25: Revenue in line but net profit misses; generous dividend payout likely to b...
Indonesia’s banking sector shows stabilising liquidity but muted credit appetite, with M2 up 6.5% yoy in Jul 25 on foreign inflows while loan growth slowed to 6.6%. Working capital and SME lending remain weak, and continue to weigh on BBRI’s earnings (SMEheavy exposure). Although its CoC rose mom, BBCA remains resilient with its strong liquidity buffers. With the BI’s 75bp ytd cuts and fiscal disbursements, loan demand should recover in 2026. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with BBNI and BBCA as our top pic...
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