Greater China Sector Update | Internet The growing robotaxi ecosystem is drawing in an increasing number of new entrants, including autonomous service providers and ride-hailing platforms. We expect technological maturity, policy support, and better fleet economics to drive a major expansion wave for the robotaxi industry into 2H25/2026, with China’s robotaxi fleet size expected to grow ten-fold during this period. We see material development and monetisation progress of Robotaxi, sparking r...
Highlights • Kopdes is policy-driven but earnings-light, with an estimated 1% ROA before tax and credit costs (vs SOE banks’ >2% ROA); impact remains immaterial at Rp16t but will become more meaningful and riskier as disbursement scales up. • Governance risk is high, and while DigiKop and Task Force may enhance transparency and reduce misuse, failure to strengthen oversight could lead to elevated credit risk, profit erosion, and deeper ROA dilutions. • Maintain OVERWEIGHT, with accelerating loan...
Sector Update | Banking The government has launched the Rp16t Kopdes scheme through SOE banks at a fixed 6% lending rate to support cooperatives. While framed as inclusive financing, Kopdes is structurally earnings-light, generating about 1% ROA (vs >2% for SOE banks). The impact is negligible at the current scale, but dilution risk will rise if allocations expand without stronger credit discipline. Oversight via DigiKop and the joint task force is directionally positive, though execution remain...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
Highlights • 2Q25 net profit fell 14.7% qoq (-18.7% yoy), driven by a one-off opex adjustment after the audit, lifting CIR to 44.5% in 1H25 (1H24:40.8%). • Management expects CIR to normalise at 40% in 2026, but CoC should return to ≥1% and delay full ROE recovery, leaving ROE at 17-18% vs our previous forecast of 19-20%. • Maintain BUY with a lower target price of Rp5,150 on lower earnings and ROE assumption; its valuation at 1.3x P/B (-1.4SD) offers an attractive entry into high-teens ROE and ...
Company Results | Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp4,380/Target: Rp5,150) BMRI’s 2Q25 net profit dropped 14.7% qoq due to a one-off adjustment after audit activity, lifting CIR to 44.5%. Management expects CIR to normalise to about 40% in 2026, although ROE will stabilise at 17-18% as CoC rises back to ≥1%. We cut earnings for 2025 by 10% and for 2026 by 5.2%. With BMRI trading at 1.3x P/B with a 7.4% dividend yield, we maintain BUY with a reduced target price of Rp5,150. Technical Analysis Astra In...
Greater China Sector Update | Internet Following the release of 2Q25 results, the market has started to re-value AI-related and ad-tech upgrade themes. The AI theme garnered the most interest, attributable to: a) re-accelerated cloud revenue growth, b) the emergence of AI agents, c) broader AI application, and d) development of self-sufficient chips. Potential beneficiaries of the AI theme poised for continuous re-rating include Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu. Tongcheng could see robust travel ...
Strategy: Impact Of Cabinet Reshuffle There are changes in the formation of ministers, with the Minister of Finance being a notable replacement. Share prices for big banks go down while cigarette stocks are up. The 2026 budget outlook and fiscal stance are key catalysts. Company Update | Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp3,610/Target: Rp4,000) ANTM’s 2H25 production is set to slow on supply constraints, with 2025 gold sales guided at about 43.8 tonnes (similar to 2024 level) and nickel ore at arou...
Greater China Economics | Trade China’s export momentum softened in August as front-loaded US demand has faded, exposing the vulnerability of shipments to the US market. While the trade diversion supported flows to ASEAN and the EU, overall growth moderated. Imports also weakened amid subdued agricultural demand, despite firmer commodity-related inflows. Pro...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb13.83/Target: Rmb16.70) 1H25: Satisfactory results; seeking growth by improving service capability and operating efficiency. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/HOLD/Rmb71.41/Target: Rmb75.30) 2Q25: Net profit down 32% yoy and 66% qoq; fair valuation. Downgrade to HOLD. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$14.47/Target: HK$17.00) 1H25: Revenue in line but net profit misses; generous dividend payout likely to b...
Indonesia’s banking sector shows stabilising liquidity but muted credit appetite, with M2 up 6.5% yoy in Jul 25 on foreign inflows while loan growth slowed to 6.6%. Working capital and SME lending remain weak, and continue to weigh on BBRI’s earnings (SMEheavy exposure). Although its CoC rose mom, BBCA remains resilient with its strong liquidity buffers. With the BI’s 75bp ytd cuts and fiscal disbursements, loan demand should recover in 2026. Maintain OVERWEIGHT with BBNI and BBCA as our top pic...
GREATER CHINA Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/BUY/HK$10.51/Target: HK$12.00) 1H25: Results miss; expects hoh sales recovery and two more BD deals in 2H25. Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK/BUY/HK$30.80/Target: HK$40.00) 2Q25: Net loss in line; 3Q25 turnaround on the back of lithium carbonate price recovery. Maintain BUY, target price: HK$40.00. Li Ning (2331 HK/HOLD/HK$19.70/Target: HK$18.90) 1H25: Results beat but challenges remain in 2H25; fa...
Indonesia plans to launch its first gold ETF in 4Q25, led by IDX and OJK, to channel culturally accepted gold investment into a regulated digital investment product. Strong retail appetite, as seen in BRIS and Pegadaian’s gold growth, underpins a potential AUM expansion. As one of the largest gold producers in the world, Indonesia can source bullion locally and integrate domestic miners, Pegadaian, BRIS, refiners (ANTM) and banks into an ecosystem, creating a virtuous circle across the value cha...
Indonesia’s 10-year government bond yield has fallen to 6.3% and could ease further to 6.1% by end-25, narrowing the yield gap with equities. Around 19 JCI stocks offer dividend yields above bond yields, led by SOE banks (>8%) and selected consumers and commodities (filtered by decent liquidity). However, we think HMSP and UNVR are dividend traps, while cyclical resource dividend yields carry risks and rewards that highly depend on the commodity price cycle. Top dividend picks: BBNI and AKRA.
GREATER CHINA Results Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$40.18/Target: HK$45.00) 2Q25: Normalised EBITDA up 7% qoq; expects reinvestment efficiency to optimise. Increased dividend payout to remain sustainable. Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH/BUY/Rmb1,437.04/Target: Rmb1,722.00) 2Q25: On track to achieve full-year target; expect wholesale price pressure to persist into 2H25. Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK/BUY/HK$88.30/Target: HK$105.00) ...
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