reports
- Tomi Railo
- Mattias Holmberg
Who stands to benefit?
A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...
UPM UPM-KYMMENE OYJ
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
FLS FLSMIDTH & CO. A/S
KEMIRA KEMIRA OYJ
ROCK B ROCKWOOL INTERNATIONAL A/S CLASS B
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
KCR KONECRANES OYJ
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
KALMAR KALMAR
- Tomi Railo
- Tomi Railo
Quality rise warrants multiples uplift
Our analysis shows that Finnish industrials have improved their earnings quality over the past 10 years, supported by expanding Service profitability and shares of total sales and earnings. We believe this together with improved stability, visibility and financials should be better rewarded in the valuations. We have a positive sector stance and highlight Konecranes, Metso and Valmet on potential multiples expansion.
- Tomi Railo
- Tomi Railo
Kalmar (Buy, TP: EUR35.00) - Attractively valued quality case
Following stronger-than-expected Q3 orders and earnings and higher 2024 guidance, we have increased our 2024–2026e clean EBIT by c3% on average and our target price to EUR35 (34). We reiterate our BUY. Kalmar’s solid earnings quality and financials remain attractively valued, in our view.
- Tomi Railo
Kalmar (Buy, TP: EUR34.00) - Orders in focus
We expect focus to be on Q3 orders and clean EBIT. Our orders, sales and clean EBIT forecasts are largely in line with post-Q2 consensus (pre-Q3 not available). We have lowered our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c2% on average and target price to EUR34 (35), but reiterate our BUY.
- Tomi Railo
Kalmar (Buy, TP: EUR35.00) - Soft Q2 orders, but solid earnings
Kalmar’s carve-out Q2 results, the first as a standalone company, showed softer-than-expected orders and sales, but earnings were close to our estimate and consensus. We have cut our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c3%. We reiterate our BUY and EUR35 target price.
- Tomi Railo
Kalmar (Buy, TP: EUR35.00) - Expecting stable demand QOQ
In the Q2 results due on 8 August (no details available yet), we expect focus to be on orders, any demand comments and clean EBIT. Our Q2e orders, sales and clean EBIT are slightly above consensus. We maintain our positive stance, reiterating our BUY and EUR35 target price on our unchanged 2024–2026e clean EPS.
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