reports
- Håkon Astrup
Rogaland Sparebank (Hold, TP: NOK125.00) - Raised ROE target and divid...
Boosted by core revenue tailwinds and merger-related effects, ROGS reported a strong Q3 ROE of 14.7% in its first quarter including Hjelmeland Sparebank (from 1 August). With the report, it presented its new strategy for 2025–2028, including a raised ROE target (from >10% to >11%) and dividend policy (from 50–75% to 50–100%). We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~2–4%, and our target price to NOK125 (114). However, following the recent share price gains, we see a more attractive risk/reward else...
- Håkon Astrup
Still-encouraging profitability outlook
Despite expecting some margin headwinds, we believe still-high interest rates, robust asset quality and a firm profitability focus bode well for sector earnings remaining strong. Adding generous dividend prospects, we continue to find the valuation undemanding, with a coverage average 2025e P/E of ~9.1x. While noting a slightly more nuanced perspective with some HOLD recommendations, we maintain our positive sector view.
- Håkon Astrup
2024 Norwegian bank survey - Sector trends remain promising
While the respondents unsurprisingly forecast margins to decline from current highs, our 11th annual survey of the 50 largest banks in Norway presents an upbeat outlook, in our view. In addition to robust asset quality, the banks expect a slight uptick in lending growth. Supported by a market-disciplining profitability focus and solid dividend potential, we still find the sector valuation undemanding at an average 2025e P/E of ~9.3x. Noting a slightly more nuanced perspective with some HOLD reco...
- Håkon Astrup
Rogaland Sparebank (Buy, TP: NOK109.00) - Closing in on capital relief...
Fuelled by the tax advantage of customer dividends, dividends from Eika Gruppen and solid core revenues, ROGS reported a strong Q2 ROE of 15.0%, despite an uptick in loan losses. We have edged up our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1%, driven by higher revenues, and raised our target price to NOK109 (107). With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.4x and prospects for generous excess capital distributions, we continue to find the valuation undemanding and reiterate our BUY.
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