reports
- Håkon Astrup
Rogaland Sparebank (Hold, TP: NOK137.00) - Stronger capital tailwind o...
Boosted by the distribution of customer dividends, an uptick in NII, even with two fewer interest days QOQ, and moderate loan losses, the Q1 ROE was 13.2%, despite somewhat softer fee income. The bank adjusted its guided positive impact from the implementation of Basel IV to 3.0%-points (previously 2.6%-points). We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by ~6%, on higher NII, and our target price to NOK137 (130). At a 2026e P/E of ~12.0x, we continue to find a better risk/reward elsewhere in the sector,...
- Håkon Astrup
Outlook for continued high rates
Although we continue to expect some margin headwind, the outlook for postponed rate cuts – leaving interest rates at continued high levels – should bode well for sector earnings, further supported by a strong profitability focus and modest loan losses. With the sector trading at an average 2026e P/E of c11.0x, and solid dividend potential, we find the valuation undemanding. We reiterate our positive sector view but highlight a larger share of HOLD recommendations than 12 months ago.
- Håkon Astrup
Rogaland Sparebank (Hold, TP: NOK127.00) - Awaiting capital tailwinds
Supported by solid lending growth, underlying YOY cost savings and loan-loss reversals, ROGS reported a Q4 ROE of 8.4%, despite some margin pressure. The board proposed a NOK9.5 DPS for 2024 (~78% payout ratio and 7.2% yield). While the CET1 ratio fell ~130bp, driven by the proposed DPS and consolidation of Brage Finans, the bank continues to guide for a ~2.6%-point benefit from the pending implementation of Basel IV. While we have edged up our target price to NOK127 (125), we still see a more a...
- Håkon Astrup
On course for ample distributions
While we forecast some margin moderation from current highs, we believe still-high interest rates, robust asset quality and a firm profitability focus bode well for continued strong earnings. With the sector trading at an average dividend-adjusted 2025e P/E of ~9.3x and several banks having additional excess capital, we still find the valuation undemanding. Noting some HOLD recommendations, we keep our positive sector view.
- Håkon Astrup
Rogaland Sparebank (Hold, TP: NOK125.00) - Raised ROE target and divid...
Boosted by core revenue tailwinds and merger-related effects, ROGS reported a strong Q3 ROE of 14.7% in its first quarter including Hjelmeland Sparebank (from 1 August). With the report, it presented its new strategy for 2025–2028, including a raised ROE target (from >10% to >11%) and dividend policy (from 50–75% to 50–100%). We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~2–4%, and our target price to NOK125 (114). However, following the recent share price gains, we see a more attractive risk/reward else...
- Håkon Astrup
Still-encouraging profitability outlook
Despite expecting some margin headwinds, we believe still-high interest rates, robust asset quality and a firm profitability focus bode well for sector earnings remaining strong. Adding generous dividend prospects, we continue to find the valuation undemanding, with a coverage average 2025e P/E of ~9.1x. While noting a slightly more nuanced perspective with some HOLD recommendations, we maintain our positive sector view.
- Håkon Astrup
2024 Norwegian bank survey - Sector trends remain promising
While the respondents unsurprisingly forecast margins to decline from current highs, our 11th annual survey of the 50 largest banks in Norway presents an upbeat outlook, in our view. In addition to robust asset quality, the banks expect a slight uptick in lending growth. Supported by a market-disciplining profitability focus and solid dividend potential, we still find the sector valuation undemanding at an average 2025e P/E of ~9.3x. Noting a slightly more nuanced perspective with some HOLD reco...
- Håkon Astrup
Rogaland Sparebank (Buy, TP: NOK109.00) - Closing in on capital relief...
Fuelled by the tax advantage of customer dividends, dividends from Eika Gruppen and solid core revenues, ROGS reported a strong Q2 ROE of 15.0%, despite an uptick in loan losses. We have edged up our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1%, driven by higher revenues, and raised our target price to NOK109 (107). With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.4x and prospects for generous excess capital distributions, we continue to find the valuation undemanding and reiterate our BUY.
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