PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK84.00) - Set to meet 2024 targets

Q3 revenues were NOK120.2m (up 12% YOY) and EBITDA was NOK5m (Q3 2023 NOK3.3m). We still expect the company to meet its financial targets for 2024, and have largely maintained our 2024–2028e EPS. We have removed future potential Asieris milestone payments from our estimates, now viewing this as upside potential to our base case. Following a change of analyst, we have cut our target price to NOK84 (87), but reiterate our BUY as we continue to find the valuation attractive.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK87.00) - Q2 in line with our estimates

Photocure’s Q2 results were in line with our estimates but stronger than consensus; we have made minor estimate adjustments. The financial contribution to the development of a new global flexible BLC system (together with Richard Wolf) was lower than we expected which should be viewed positively by the market. It will likely still take up to 30 months before the system’s launch, but over time we believe this should be beneficial for Photocure. We reiterate our BUY and NOK87 target price.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK87.00) - Important long-term deal

For the Q2 report (due at 08:00 CET on 7 August), we expect earnings to be in line with our estimates and thus have not changed our forecasts. Focus should be on long-term growth and the deal with Richard Wolf regarding the development of a new flexible blue light cystoscope for the global markets. We believe such a product could be ready for launch in about two years, and the cost to Photocure should be reasonable. We reiterate our BUY and NOK87 target price.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK87.00) - Solid start to the year

A 3% outperformance on Q1 sales versus our estimate and consensus together with lower operating expenses helped EBITDA beat our forecast by 193% (but cNOK5m in absolute terms). Management reiterated its guidance for 6–9% organic product sales growth in 2024 and positive EBITDA (excluding business development costs). We reiterate our BUY and NOK87 target price.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK87.00) - Focusing on underlying business

We have made limited estimate changes ahead of the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 15 May), and believe Photocure is moving forward in areas within its control. YOY comparables are affected by Q1 2023 being the last quarter with flex sales in the US. Its partner, Asieris, has filed for marketing approval of Cevira in China; if accepted for review, we believe Photocure would be in line for another milestone payment in Q2. We reiterate our BUY and NOK87 target price.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK87.00) - Headwinds set to ease

Q4 earnings were strong, with Hexvix/Cysview sales slightly above our estimate and operating expenses below, driving the strong earnings beat (EBITDA 106% above our estimate, 84% above consensus). The company still faces some headwinds from the loss of flex in the US, but this should be most visible in Q1, with the headwinds easing over the coming quarters. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK87 (95).

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - On course to reach 2023 guidance

We expect the company to reach its 2023 guidance of product sales growth (including FX) of 17–20% YOY and that absolute EBITDA will marginally exceed the upper end of the guided NOK45m–50m excluding business development (B/D) costs. Ahead of the Q4 results (due at 08:00 CET on 21 February), we reiterate our BUY and NOK95 target price.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - Overall solid report

Q3 sales were c3% below our estimate, but earnings were stronger, mainly driven by lower than expected operating expenses. The decline in US flex system sales continued as expected, but we believe rigid sales in the US held up well. The company is planning to bring a proprietary flex system to market globally and we expect it to provide more details on this with the Q4 report. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK95 (100) on forecast adjustments.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK100.00) - US flex sales set to trough in Q4

We expect a stronger headwind to US sales in Q3 from dwindling flexible BLC systems, and the trough in Q4, after which comparables start to ease (the Q3 results are due at 08:00 CET on 8 November). There was good news in Q3 for Cevira as well as for Hexvix in China (both out-licensed to Asieris); we believe both products could be approved in China in 2025. We reiterate our BUY and NOK100 target price.

Photocure ASA: 1 director

A director at Photocure ASA bought 150,000 shares at 43.133NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Northern Lights

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK100.00) - Q2 underlying sales growth in line

Q2 underlying sales growth and adj. EBITDA (adjusted for a milestone payment and business development costs) were just above our estimates and consensus. We see this as positive given declining sales of flexible BLCs in the US (after Karls Storz announced it would no longer sell flexible BLCs and would stop servicing systems already installed). We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to NOK100 (110) to reflect our estimate changes.

Northern Lights

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK110.00) - Keeping an eye on US Flex decline

We expect Q2 to show healthy underlying trends (results due at 08:00 CET on 9 August), but will keep an eye on Flex systems in the US given Karl Storz will stop servicing and supporting these later this year, meaning their numbers are set to decline over time, and therefore also Cysview for those systems. However, as they make up a minority of group sales, we reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to NOK110 (115).

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK115.00) - Stable start to 2023

PhotoCure (PHO NO, Buy) - Stable start to 2023 (14 pages)

Northern Lights

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK115.00) - The proof is in the pudding

In Q4, Photocure said the quarter was an anomaly and that Q1 should be better, showing it is moving in the right direction. Now it is time for the company to live up to its comments (Q1 results due at 08:00 CET on 10 May). We expect Q1 to be a stronger quarter than Q4 and thus help to restore investor confidence. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK115 (120) on minor forecast revisions.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Guidance softer than expected

The Q4 report was softer than we expected, with lower sales and higher operating expenses than we forecast. In addition, the 2023 guidance was for sales growth of above 20% and a positive EBITDA (excluding business development costs), weaker than we expected. This has led us to make large estimate cuts, and we believe consensus will do the same. We reiterate our BUY but have reduced our target price to NOK120 (140).

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - BLC placements likely to be strong

We expect PhotoCure’s Q4 results to show strong placements of BLC systems and offer a preview of 2023. Earnings should be decent even though we believe most new BLCs (not part of the OPP) were placed at quarter-end. We forecast placement of 20 new BLCs (15 rigid and 5 flexible) in the US in addition to the remaining OPP systems. We reiterate our BUY and NOK140 target price.

Sector Fast Comment - Hospital data update

Better hospital margins in September Weaker procedure volume momentum into Q4 Small positive for capex exposure