PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK87.00) - Headwinds set to ease

Q4 earnings were strong, with Hexvix/Cysview sales slightly above our estimate and operating expenses below, driving the strong earnings beat (EBITDA 106% above our estimate, 84% above consensus). The company still faces some headwinds from the loss of flex in the US, but this should be most visible in Q1, with the headwinds easing over the coming quarters. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK87 (95).

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - On course to reach 2023 guidance

We expect the company to reach its 2023 guidance of product sales growth (including FX) of 17–20% YOY and that absolute EBITDA will marginally exceed the upper end of the guided NOK45m–50m excluding business development (B/D) costs. Ahead of the Q4 results (due at 08:00 CET on 21 February), we reiterate our BUY and NOK95 target price.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - Overall solid report

Q3 sales were c3% below our estimate, but earnings were stronger, mainly driven by lower than expected operating expenses. The decline in US flex system sales continued as expected, but we believe rigid sales in the US held up well. The company is planning to bring a proprietary flex system to market globally and we expect it to provide more details on this with the Q4 report. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK95 (100) on forecast adjustments.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK100.00) - US flex sales set to trough in Q4

We expect a stronger headwind to US sales in Q3 from dwindling flexible BLC systems, and the trough in Q4, after which comparables start to ease (the Q3 results are due at 08:00 CET on 8 November). There was good news in Q3 for Cevira as well as for Hexvix in China (both out-licensed to Asieris); we believe both products could be approved in China in 2025. We reiterate our BUY and NOK100 target price.

Photocure ASA: 1 director

A director at Photocure ASA bought 150,000 shares at 43.133NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

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PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK100.00) - Q2 underlying sales growth in line

Q2 underlying sales growth and adj. EBITDA (adjusted for a milestone payment and business development costs) were just above our estimates and consensus. We see this as positive given declining sales of flexible BLCs in the US (after Karls Storz announced it would no longer sell flexible BLCs and would stop servicing systems already installed). We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to NOK100 (110) to reflect our estimate changes.

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PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK110.00) - Keeping an eye on US Flex decline

We expect Q2 to show healthy underlying trends (results due at 08:00 CET on 9 August), but will keep an eye on Flex systems in the US given Karl Storz will stop servicing and supporting these later this year, meaning their numbers are set to decline over time, and therefore also Cysview for those systems. However, as they make up a minority of group sales, we reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to NOK110 (115).

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK115.00) - Stable start to 2023

PhotoCure (PHO NO, Buy) - Stable start to 2023 (14 pages)

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PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK115.00) - The proof is in the pudding

In Q4, Photocure said the quarter was an anomaly and that Q1 should be better, showing it is moving in the right direction. Now it is time for the company to live up to its comments (Q1 results due at 08:00 CET on 10 May). We expect Q1 to be a stronger quarter than Q4 and thus help to restore investor confidence. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK115 (120) on minor forecast revisions.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Guidance softer than expected

The Q4 report was softer than we expected, with lower sales and higher operating expenses than we forecast. In addition, the 2023 guidance was for sales growth of above 20% and a positive EBITDA (excluding business development costs), weaker than we expected. This has led us to make large estimate cuts, and we believe consensus will do the same. We reiterate our BUY but have reduced our target price to NOK120 (140).

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - BLC placements likely to be strong

We expect PhotoCure’s Q4 results to show strong placements of BLC systems and offer a preview of 2023. Earnings should be decent even though we believe most new BLCs (not part of the OPP) were placed at quarter-end. We forecast placement of 20 new BLCs (15 rigid and 5 flexible) in the US in addition to the remaining OPP systems. We reiterate our BUY and NOK140 target price.

Sector Fast Comment - Hospital data update

Better hospital margins in September Weaker procedure volume momentum into Q4 Small positive for capex exposure

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PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - US BLC launch off to a good start

Q3 earnings were slightly better than we expected. Revenues were in line, but the gross margin was slightly higher and operating expenses slightly lower than we estimated. Most importantly for the short term, the US launch of Karl Storz’s new BLC seems to be off to a good start, in our view. We continue to expect a solid ramp-up of BLC installations in the coming quarters. We reiterate our BUY and NOK140 target price.

Photocure - Weak earnings, solid rate of tower placements

EBITDA 10% below and sales 1% below cons High rate of scope placement warrants unchanged est. We expect share to trade down low single-digits

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PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - New BLC in the US still in focus

Karl Storz finally launched its new BLC in the US; our impression from the system demonstrations is that it will be in high demand. Hence, we expect the placement rate of new BLCs in the US to accelerate from Q4. We have adjusted our 2022–2024 forecasts slightly and as a result lowered our target price to NOK140 (150). We reiterate our BUY.