reports
- Simen Mortensen
More Q1 results and a proposed delisting
The Q1 reporting season is in full swing, with results from Catena, Entra, Pandox and Wihlborgs in the past week. In addition, Aurora Eiendom announced a proposal to delist from Euronext Growth Oslo. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.00% for 2025e and 5.31% for 2026e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
LOGIB LOGISTEA
- Simen Mortensen
Everything is connected
Geopolitical uncertainty has affected market interest rates and thus the Nordic real estate sector – and we see no near-term fix. The yield gap (risk premium) has remained broadly unchanged in the recent market volatility, meaning interest rates changes explain most of the YTD share price performance – a correlation we expected will continue. The local office rental market remains soft, and we expect the logistics market to follow suit. However, given the deleveraging efforts in recent years and...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
LOGIB LOGISTEA
- Niklas Wetterling
Logistea (Buy, TP: SEK18.00) - First full quarter after recent merger
Q4 profit from property management (PFPM) adjusted for extraordinary refinancing costs was 9% above our forecast. Other report highlights were: 1) ‘earnings capacity’ PFPMps grew by 15% QOQ; 2) management was optimistic on potential additional financing cost savings; and 3) it surprised us by proposing a small DPS of SEK0.1. The key negative, in our view, was a tenant bankruptcy raising the vacancy rate to 3.1% (2.6% in Q3). We reiterate our BUY and SEK18 target price.
- Simen Mortensen
Set for another subdued year
Volatile market interest rates, coupled with rental market weakness, indicate 2025 could be another year of subdued sector performance. The sector is trading at discounts to its historical averages on P/FFO (15.4x NTM) and NAV (26% discount), while the tight implied yield gap looks less appealing. Deleveraging efforts over the past three years have improved EBIT/NIBD metrics and reduced sector risk. We maintain our neutral stance, with one SELL recommendation. Our top sector picks are Balder, Ny...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
SAGAB SAGAX
AURA AURORA EIENDOM
PUBLI PUBLIC PROPERTY INVEST
LOGIB LOGISTEA
- Niklas Wetterling
Logistea (Buy, TP: SEK18.00) - Achieving financial synergies
We maintain our positive view ahead of the Q4 results following strong refinancing activities at the end of the quarter. These should be reflected in Logistea’s ‘earnings capacity’, where we forecast ∼10% growth QOQ – a potential near-term catalyst in our view. Due to rising market interest rates, we have lowered our target price to SEK18 (20), but reiterate our BUY.
- Niklas Wetterling
Logistea (Buy, TP: SEK20.00) - Nearly a full first quarter together
The Q3 results were solid and we have only made minor estimate changes and reiterate our BUY and SEK20 target price. In our M&A scenario, we forecast an attractive 2023–2027e PFPM/share CAGR of 21% and consider the valuation attractive versus peers in the Swedish light-industry property segment.
- Niklas Wetterling
Logistea (Buy, TP: SEK20.00) - Just getting started
Following the merger of Logistea and KMC Properties, and a change of analyst, we have shifted our coverage to Logistea and reinstated a recommendation with a BUY and SEK20 target price. In our M&A scenario, we forecast an attractive 2023–2027e PFPM/share CAGR of 22% and we consider the valuation attractive versus peers in the Swedish light industry property segment.
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