reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semicap in 2026 on a single slide: the growth outlook doesn’t justify ...
Last week, we published our updated view on semicap, assessing the implications for WFE, of AI spending reaching $2-3tn in 2030. For the updated associated view on each semicap name, summarized in a single slide, follow the link below.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Strengthening AI infrastructure outlook: Implications for semicap
The last earnings season provided tangible indications that both 2026 and 2027 will be very strong growth years for AI infrastructure, a view confirmed by TSMC yesterday. Please see the link for the implications and our updated view on semicap vendors.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 3Q25
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 242 pages of detailed analysis on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
TSLA TESLA INC
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 3Q25 – Semicap: Cautious on 2026; not the right AI play.
Today, we are publishing the Semicap Equipment section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Hyperscale & Cloud, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, and Foundry. 3Q25 semicap revenues were flat QoQ, with China up...
Moody's Ratings affirms Lam Research's A2 senior unsecured ratings and...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) affirmed Lam Research Corp.'s (Lam) A2 senior unsecured ratings and P-1 commercial paper rating. The outlook remains stable. The affirmation reflects our expectation that Lam's performance and credit profile will remain strong over the next 12 to 18 months despite some ne...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
How much WFE is required to produce a 1 GW datacenter?
As a follow up to our cheat sheet summarizing the cost structure of a 1GW datacenter, we estimate today on a single slide WFE required to produce semiconductors for a 1 GW datacenter, with our usual important caveat: WFE spending is driven by the growth of production capacity. In other words, one spends once on WFE to build a 1GW datacenter many times over.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semicon West: 2026 outlook? Does AI drive growth? DRAM architectures? ...
Last week we attended the 2025 edition of the Semicon West conference, the key event for investors focused on the semiconductor equipment market. Over two days we hosted more than a dozen meetings with companies across the semiconductor value chain. Here are our key takeaways.
TSFA TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD. SPONSORED ADR
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
AMD ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
AVGO ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
SOH1 ASML
BESI BROADCOM INC.
SOITEC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Does the Semicap rally have legs? Downgrading ASML to Neutral
The outlook for AI spending has strengthened in recent months, driving a rally in Semicap stocks. Our forecast embeds AI capex tripling by 2030, requiring ~$130bn of cumulative WFE spending, but driven by the first-order derivative of AI deployments, i.e. peak acceleration this year and peak spending next year; a trajectory in expectations already and resulting in a weak outlook beyond 2026. With near-term uncertainty, limited upside to 2026 forecasts, and valuations 2–12 turns above historic ...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 2Q25
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 229 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides. Please follow the link below for more details.
TSLA TESLA INC
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
IFX INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
ASML: best positioned for 2026 in the Semicap pack. Upgrade to Buy, €7...
Consensus expects ASML to grow revenues 2% next year, compared to 6-12% for its peers. That is conservative. If anything, we see room for ASML to outperform, driven by high leading-edge exposure. Beyond 2026, we also expect ASML to grow in the upper end of its peer group. Normal order intake in 3Q would allow management to ease concerns around 2026 growth, and with the stock trading on 25x forward earnings we see limited risk of further de-rating. We hence upgrade the stock to Buy, €790 Target...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semi cycle update. Much ado about nothing: Tariff and DeepSeek effects...
We publish today our quarterly and extensive review of where fundamentals, expectations, and valuations stand in semis and give our views on how investors should be positioned for the rest of the year. For details, please follow the link below.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Deep dive into Chinese Semicap: How much of a headwind for Western pla...
Chinese WFE spending quadrupled in five years to $41bn, driven by aggressive local deployments, while domestic vendors rapidly gained traction, capturing 13% of local spending already, mostly in deposition, etch, and CMP. In this deep dive, we assess the competitiveness of key Chinese vendors, including Naura, AMEC, and SiCarrier. We estimate first the pace (and the scope) at (and on) which they could close the gap with their western peers. On that basis we estimate the share they can gain ov...
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