Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Greater China Initiate Coverage | Pony AI Inc (PONY US/BUY/US$12.18/Target: US$26.10) Pony AI is a global leader in autonomous mobility, leveraging its virtual driver technology to enable the mass production and deployment of autonomous vehicles across diverse regions. We expect revenue to grow at a three-year CAGR of 65% from 2024-27, net loss to narrow, and bottom line to turn around in 2028, driven by large-scale commercialisation. Initiate coverage with BUY and a target price of US$26.10...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The escalating China-US trade tensions have triggered a dual crisis in chips and rare earth, potentially disrupting the global auto supply chain like that seen in 2021-22. China's auto sector sees short-term gains from domestic prioritisation but long-term risks. Chinese auto part companies may see a revenue loss in 4Q25 if the issue is not resolved in a month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Upda...
Company Results | Kasikorn Bank (KBANK TB/BUY/Bt173.00/Target: Bt200.00) KBANK posted a 3Q25 net profit of Bt13b (+9% yoy, +4% qoq). The actual results beat our estimates by 28% and were higher than consensus forecasts by 16%. Management will prioritise quality by selectively lending. KBANK has set aside adequate provisions to cushion against future uncertainties. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Bt200.00. KBANK is our top banking pick.
Top Stories Company Results | Bangkok Bank (BBL TB/HOLD/Bt155.50/Target: Bt170.00) BBL posted a 3Q25 net profit of Bt13.8b, +11% yoy and +17% qoq. The results beat our and consensus expectations by 40% and 27%, respectively. The loan portfolio contracted 3.2% in 9M25. Meanwhile, an investment gain boosted bottom line, beating expectations in 3Q25. We should see the NPL reduction pattern continuing in 4Q25, in line with the guidance. Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of Bt170.00. Compan...
Greater China Company Update | PICC P&C (2328 HK/BUY/HK$19.04/Target: HK$22.20) PICC P&C issued a positive profit alert, expecting its net profit to surge 40-60% in 9M25, attributed to a significant increase in underwriting profit and strong investment gains amid the stock market rally. We forecast continued CoR improvement in 4Q25, supported by the implementation of non-auto commission reforms effective from 1 Nov 25. We lift our 2025 earnings estimates by 8.9% to factor in the 3Q25 positiv...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
Greater China Sector Update | Property Property investment has declined since Jul 25 due to weak demand, LGFV financing controls, slow destocking and urban-redevelopment, and limited new loans. Sep 25 data showed a rebound in Tier 1 city home sales, led by Shanghai. Central government capital is needed. However, the existing policy stance points to a low possibility of direct injection by the central government. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with CR Land as our top pick. Indonesia Strategy | T...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb13.83/Target: Rmb16.70) 1H25: Satisfactory results; seeking growth by improving service capability and operating efficiency. China Tourism Group Duty Free (601888 CH/HOLD/Rmb71.41/Target: Rmb75.30) 2Q25: Net profit down 32% yoy and 66% qoq; fair valuation. Downgrade to HOLD. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$14.47/Target: HK$17.00) 1H25: Revenue in line but net profit misses; generous dividend payout likely to b...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: Add JBM Healthcare and Lenovo to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In July: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, AKRA, ARCI, BBNI, KLBF, MTEL, and MYOR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Some Opportunities Amid A “Summer Lull”: Our July 25 Alpha Picks outperformed. Aug 25 picks: Coraza, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari, RHB and Zetrix. SINGAPORE ...
We came away from KBANK’s 2H25 analyst and fund manager meeting with a positive view. The CEO announced a change in dividend policy from 25% to 50, with a targeted payout of 50-60% in the medium term. Management also provided guidance on future capital management. KBANK is maintaining its 2025 financial targets, and reiterated that asset quality and credit costs remain under control. We maintain BUY with a higher target price of Bt192.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Property Expect earnings to recover in 2Q25, but 2H25 outlook remains uncertain. Update Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/HOLD/Bt176.50/Target: Bt185.00) Cautiously optimistic in 2H25. Kasikorn Bank (KBANK TB/BUY/Bt160.50/Target: Bt192.00 To increase dividend policy from 25% to 50% and guide for potential capital management.
KBANK reported 2Q25 earnings of Bt12.5b (-1% yoy, -9% qoq). The results beat our forecast by 9% but fell in line with market expectations. KBANK expects credit costs to exceed the 2025 target of 140-160bp and land at 160-165bp. In 2Q25, credit costs rose qoq, partly from adding management overlay as a cushion against future uncertainties. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt185.00. KBANK is our top banking pick.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Kasikorn Bank (KBANK TB/BUY/Bt160.00/Target: Bt185.00) 2Q25: Results in line with market forecasts; provision expenses increased qoq. Kiatnakin Phatra Bank (KKP TB/HOLD/Bt48.00/Target: Bt50.00) 2Q25: Results beat expectations; provisions declined yoy and qoq. Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB/HOLD/Bt21.40/Target: Bt24.00) 2Q25: Results beat; investment gains boosted a strong bottom line. SCB X (SCB TB/HOLD/Bt121.00/Target: Bt134.00) 2Q25: Results beat; investment and trading incom...
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Channel check on Guangzhou’s and Shenzhen’s primary residential markets; 1H25 earnings preview for Longfor. INDONESIA Sector Banking: 1H25 results preview: Diverging earnings growth. MALAYSIA Sector Renewable Energy: PETRA announced the approval of 180.8MW of FIT RE projects and EPCC jobs worth RM1.87b. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: Tenaga, Malakoff and Pekat. Results CapitaLand Malaysia Trust (CLMT MK/BUY/RM0.65/Target: RM0.78): Q25: Results in line. The stock...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls: Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June: Our new Alpha Picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA, AMRT and TLKM. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Positioning For Positive US Trade Deals: Our Jun 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Jul 25 picks: Coraza, Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari and MYEG. SINGAP...
The BOT attended our seminar to provide our clients with Thailand's economic outlook for 2H25. The BOT has revised its 2025 GDP forecast from 2.0% to 2.3% in the meeting. It foresees a softening of exports in 3Q25, due to the front-loading of exports in 1H25. The PM has been suspended, with a caretaker in charge, but there should be no impact on 2026’s budget. We highlight four sectors related to the BOT event. Top picks: KBANK, MTC, CPALL and STECON.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. Sector Online Games Upcoming new game releases to capitalise on the summer holiday season. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June Our new alpha picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA...
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