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Pan Asia Footwear Plc: 1 director
A director at Pan Asia Footwear Plc sold 400,000 shares at 1.880THB and the significance rating of the trade was 66/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
Update: Firing on four cylinders
Pan African’s interim figurers were better than Edison’s expectations, despite a 9.8% year-on-year decline in the average price of gold. Compared to the prior year period (ie H115) gold produced and sold increased 17.4% (or 15,122oz), while cash costs of production fell by 25.7%, to US$740/oz, aided by, among other things, a 23.9% decline in the rand exchange rate. In generaltherefore, not only were costs lower than our expectations, but depreciation, royalties and net finance costs were als...
Update: Better than expected
Pan African’s (PAF) half-year results to 31 December 2015 were ahead of our expectations, with strong performances at both of its tailings retreatment operations complementing a solid recovery in the underground head grade at Evander, which effectively portends its exit from the low-grade mining cycle. We have adjusted our FY16 PBT and EPS forecasts (which nevertheless remain under further review) slightly to reflect flat (rather than declining) unit costs in H216, although PAF will clearly be...
Update: Four cylinders firing at once
On 8 February, Pan African (PAF) updated its earnings guidance for H115, which had been in existence since 26 November. Ostensibly to reflect the material changes in forex rates since early December (eg ZAR/GBP -7.8%, ZAR/USD -13.2% & GBP/USD -4.8%), the update nevertheless also provided production guidance for PAF’s major operating units, indicating production 5.5% ahead of our expectations and thus resulting in an earnings upgrade for both H116 and FY16.
Update: Evander trending higher
As is now virtually a semi-annual event, Pan African (PAF) has released a trading statement under paragraph 3.4 (b) of the JSE listing requirements stating that its H116 results will differ by at least 20% from H115. In this case, PAF has indicated that headline EPS (HEPS) will be at least 65% higher than the 0.31p per share reported in H115 in sterling terms – ie at least 0.51p/share including an estimated 0.12p in exceptional hedging profits. The announcement broadly confirms our estimates f...
Update: Uitkomst coal acquisition
As is now virtually a semi-annual event, Pan African (PAF) has released a trading statement under paragraph 3.4 (b) of the JSE listing requirements stating that its FY15 results will differ by at least 20% from FY14. In this case, PAF has indicated that EPS will be 43-63% lower than its 1.47pp in FY14 – ie in the range 0.54-0.84pp cf a prior analysts’ consensus of 0.8-1.4pp (source: Bloomberg). PAF has also announced the acquisition of the 400ktpa Uitkomst colliery in KwaZulu Natal for ZAR20...
Update: Site visit confirms establishment of 25 Level
Having indicated to the market that H115 EPS would be between 0.16p and 0.35p, Pan African duly announced profits that were towards the top of the potential range and 13.5% better than our expectations for the period, helped by a decline in the depreciation charge and royalty costs and the reversal of other expenses into other income. From 5.5g/t in H215, the underground head grade at Evander is expected to increase to in excess of 7.0g/t in FY16 and beyond driving a doubling in EPS compared to ...
Update: A year of two halves
In compliance with paragraph 3.4(b) of the listings requirements of the JSE, Pan African has announced that its EPS and headline EPS (HEPS) for H114 (denominated in sterling) will be 63-83% lower than the 0.95p reported in the prior period (H113), at 0.16-0.35p per share. In part this is a function of the continuation of the low-grade mining cycle at Evander and the weak gold price. However, it also includes a number of days of lost production as a result of Section 54 notices issued at Barberto...
Update: Cleaning up
Pan African has announced that it has completed the disposal of its interest in Manica. Under the terms of the deed of settlement, Auroch (the purchaser) has paid Pan African an amount totalling A$850,000 (c US$742,000) in full and final settlement of the consideration and in satisfaction of all of its outstanding obligations.
Update: Evander grade nadir portends future growth
Already down from FY13’s 7.8g/t to 6.2g/t in H114, we estimate a further decline in underground grades at Evander to 4.2g/t in H214. However, face grades are already reported to be improving and mined grades should improve markedly once mining crews are moved from existing operations to the new 25 Level workings from February 2015. In the near term, we forecast an underground grade of 4.75g/t in H115 and 5.75g/t in H215. However, thereafter we estimate that it will rise to in excess of 7.5g/t ...
Update: Group reserves up 0.9Moz despite mining 0.3Moz
In its reserve and resource update of 3 September, PAF announced a 4.5% (1.6Moz) decrease in group gold resources. Of more significance however, the decline in the premium measured and indicated categories was limited to 0.35Moz, despite being calculated at a lower gold price and PAF having mined ore containing an estimated 0.27Moz of gold in FY14. Reserves (calculated using a gold price of ZAR400,000/kg, or US$1,165/oz at current exchange rates) increased 9.8% (or 0.9Moz) to 10.1Moz.
Update: EGM low-grade cycle persists, but end in sight…
In its trading statement released last week, Pan African Resources (PAF) indicated that EPS for the year ended 30 June 2014 (scheduled for release on 16 September) will be 42-47% lower than in FY13, when it was 2.63p/share; ie they should be in the range 1.39-1.52p/share. When adjusted for exceptional items, headline earnings per share (HEPS) will be 30-35% lower than in FY13; ie they should be in the range 1.41-1.52p/share. Before PAF’s trading statement, we were predicting FY14 EPS and HEPS ...
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