Vitrolife AB: 1 director

A director at Vitrolife AB bought 19,350 shares at 128.990SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 81/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK525.00) - Q2 report mostly a non-event

Today’s Q2 report was something of a non-event, as Vitrolife had pre-announced the top line and EBITDA with the announcement of the Igenomix acquisition late last week. We believe the most important driver now is the execution and integration of Igenomix (already included in our forecasts). We reiterate our BUY and SEK525 target price.

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK525.00) - Adding Igenomix to the model

Vitrolife announced the proposed acquisition of Igenomix for cSEK12.7bn last week. We believe that this transaction makes sense for Vitrolife and should fundamentally transform it. We have included the deal in our forecasts as of late-2021. In our view, the transaction should be accretive for EBITDA and cash flow, and hence value-enhancing despite the increase in the number of shares. After including the transaction in our model, we have raised our target price to SEK525 (395), and we reiterate ...

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK395.00) - Major acquisition in genomics

After Thursday’s close, Vitrolife announced a deal to acquire Igenomix from EQT for cSEK12.7bn. The deal is expected to be completed by year-end and should show a benefit from 2022. Igenomix is expected to have had a turnover of cEUR98m for the last 12 months and EBITDA of cEUR26m (excluding Covid-19 testing). We view the transaction as a positive and it strengthens Vitrolife’s market position; it should be accretive from 2022. We have not yet included the deal in our forecasts.

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK395.00) - Strong quarter expected

We expect another strong quarter (results due at 08:00 CET on 15 July), as more and more markets are coming out of lockdown. In addition, the company was among the first hit by the pandemic last year (given its large exposure to China), hence the comparables for this quarter look very easy. We are above consensus on Q2 and 2021. We have increased our longer-term growth forecasts and as a result have raised our target price to SEK395 (350). We reiterate our BUY.

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Another strong quarter

Vitrolife reported a good Q1, beating our sales estimate by 9% and EBITDA by 19%, while the EBITDA margin was 43% versus our 39.6%. The beat was driven by a higher gross margin and a superior performance in the Technology division, where the time-lapse products did particularly well. The company indicated the underlying level of IVF cycles is now back to normal. After adjusting our forecasts, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK350 (295).

Northern Lights

Vitrolife (Hold, TP: SEK275.00) - Another strong quarter

Q4 earnings were strong, driven by a gross margin beat thanks to mix and lower amortisation, although operating costs (excluding COGS) were slightly higher than we expected. Despite a likely YOY Covid-19 hit in Q1, management sounded more positive on future demand. The market looks to be viewing Vitrolife as a strong grower with healthy margins that justify its valuation – we now concur and have upgraded the stock to HOLD (SELL) and raised our target price to SEK275 (165).

Vitrolife (Sell, TP: SEK165.00) - High uncertainty due to Covid-19

We see significant uncertainty ahead of the Q4 results (due at 08:00 CET on 10 February) given the potential negative impact from the second wave of Covid-19. In connection with the Q3 report, Vitrolife said that sales of consumables were higher than the underlying number of treatment cycles, indicating some pipeline fill ahead of Q4. Some markets are more or less back at normal treatment levels (such as China), while we believe the second wave has had a larger negative impact in Europe and the ...

Vitrolife (Sell, TP: SEK165.00) - Strong Q3 – Covid-19 still looming

Vitrolife reported strong Q3 earnings, with sales beating our estimate by c8% and EBITDA beating our estimate by c33%. The gross margin reached c62.2%, 420bp above our 58% estimate. The higher than expected gross margin was a result of increased sales and a better mix (with more consumables versus capital equipment). However, even though the company’s situation seems to have stabilised, we are concerned a second wave of Covid-19 might hurt growth in Q4 and potentially Q1. We reiterate our SELL b...

Northern Lights

Vitrolife (Sell, TP: SEK150.00) - Covid-19 impact to continue

Vitrolife said with its Q2 report that the pandemic would have a negative impact on H2. Since then, the second wave of infections has come and more and more countries are returning to lockdown mode. We saw earlier this year the Chinese market was recovering and this is most likely still the case, but we are concerned the rest of the world will continue to suffer from below-normal levels of IVF procedures. The Q3 results are due at 08:00 CET on 6 November. We reiterate our SELL and SEK150 target ...

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Vitrolife (Sell, TP: SEK150.00) - Weaker than assumed H2e

Vitrolife reported weaker than forecast Q2 earnings, but said the end of the quarter was clearly better than the beginning. However, we believe the recovery will take longer than initially assumed. Management said consumables should recover faster than capital equipment, as investing in capital equipment is not top of clinics’ agendas right now. We reiterate our SELL and SEK150 target price.

Northern Lights

Vitrolife (Sell, TP: SEK150.00) - Q2 should be the trough

The profit warning issued on 3 June guided for a c50–60% decline in sales in Q2 YOY, far steeper than we expected after the Q1 report, plus management now expects the recovery to take the rest of the year, rather than seeing a rapid bounce. As a result, we have lowered our 2020–2022 earnings forecasts. However, Vitrolife’s outlook for the IVF market is unchanged, at c5–10% annual growth. We reiterate our SELL and SEK150 target price. The Q2 results are due at 08:00 CET on 13 July.

Northern Lights

Vitrolife (Sell, TP: SEK150.00) - Q2e the real challenge

Vitrolife reported stronger Q1 earnings than we expected, but we believe Q2e may be a huge challenge as the Covid-19 pandemic continues globally. First indications from early April indicate a sales decline of 60%+ YOY. Thus, despite some of the markets hit early by Covid-19 starting to open up, the overall Q2e trend looks challenging, in our view. We have downgraded to SELL (HOLD) but lifted our target price to SEK150 (135) after our forecast adjustments.

Northern Lights

Vitrolife (Hold, TP: SEK135.00) - Estimate revisions due to Covid-19

As the Covid-19 pandemic spreads around the world, we believe Vitrolife will most likely experience a hit to its operations as more and more markets are affected. Historically, Vitrolife has been a very defensive name in times of financial crisis; however, this crisis is different as it involves a virus pandemic, and severe restrictions have been placed on people in many countries. We have lowered our forecasts to reflect the ongoing pandemic. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price ...