Wood down and pulp likely up, but not for Q3

Q3 preview

Billerud AB: 1 director

A director at Billerud AB bought 10,000 shares at 89.780SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Swedish forest prices up 3% y-o-y

Leading indicators

June: Pulp shipments +5% y-o-y

Muddling through challenging times

Q2 EBITDA 17% below

May: Pulp shipments -1.7% y-o-y

More value than momentum, except for wood

Q2 preview

Apr: Pulp shipments +2% y-o-y

Large forest deal at EV/EBITDA 36-60x

Mar: Pulp shipments +7% y-o-y

Billerud (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Rosy outlook for cash

Although Q1 earnings were slightly shy of our forecast, we believe the results support our investment case. In our view, Billerud has good pricing power, especially in the US, where the market is highly consolidated and the overall earnings outlook for Q2 remains solid thanks to healthy orderbooks. Our 2025–2026e EBITDA is largely unchanged, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK130 target price.

Higher prices help, but stronger SEK does not

Q1 EBITDA in-line

Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

Billerud (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - In a good place with excess cash

Despite escalating macroeconomic uncertainty, we remain convinced that Billerud has healthy pricing power in Europe and is in a good position to increase its capacity utilisation for its well-performing US business. Our 2025e earnings are largely unchanged, but due to FX (much stronger SEK) and a sharp reduction of free CO2 allowances from 2026, we have cut our 2026–2027e EBITDA by c8%. We continue to see an attractive investment case, as our forecasts translate into appealing multiples, while t...