Muddling through challenging times

Q2 EBITDA 17% below

May: Pulp shipments -1.7% y-o-y

More value than momentum, except for wood

Q2 preview

Q2 preview

Q2 preview

Apr: Pulp shipments +2% y-o-y

Large forest deal at EV/EBITDA 36-60x

Mar: Pulp shipments +7% y-o-y

Comeback for Board and Paper

Q1 EBIT +15%, new buy-back

Billerud AB: 1 director

A director at Billerud AB bought 3,700 shares at 100.900SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Billerud (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Rosy outlook for cash

Although Q1 earnings were slightly shy of our forecast, we believe the results support our investment case. In our view, Billerud has good pricing power, especially in the US, where the market is highly consolidated and the overall earnings outlook for Q2 remains solid thanks to healthy orderbooks. Our 2025–2026e EBITDA is largely unchanged, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK130 target price.

Higher prices help, but stronger SEK does not

Q1 EBITDA in-line

Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR12.00) - Reassuring Q1

After a series of negative earnings surprises, the Q1 results exceeded our expectations, mainly on progress in the key Consumer Packaging division. In addition, we found it reassuring that management reiterated that the forestry asset sale is ongoing, with completion expected before end-H1. We have made limited forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and EUR12 target price.

All chips on Oulu II

Q1 above on lower ramp-up cost, more in Q2

Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR12.00) - Headwinds versus intrinsic values

Reflecting escalating general macro uncertainty leading to softer prices for most of Stora Enso’s industries and FX headwinds (weaker USD and stronger SEK), we have reduced our 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA by 6% per year. Despite this, we still find the valuation discount too high, especially since we believe Stora Enso’s explicit plan of selling 12% of its Swedish forestland could be a potential positive catalyst. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to EUR12 (13).