June: Pulp shipments flat y-o-y

Costs push prices higher

A long list of price increases as costs push prices higher. Q2e EBIT likely down q-o-q: higher maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low.

Q2 preview

Nordic Paper will report its next quarterly results on 19 July. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 60 (62). Q2'24e EBITDA of ~SEK 245m.

Q2 preview

Metsa Board will report its next quarterly results on 1 August. We reiterate HOLD with a TP of EUR 7.8. Q2'24e EBIT at ~EUR 10m.

Q2 preview

Essity will report its next quarterly results on 18 July. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 295 (290). Our model indicates a clean EBITA of ~SEK 4.6bn for Q2'24.

Q2 preview

Huhtamaki will report its next quarterly results on 25 July. We reiterate HOLD with a TP of EUR 42 (40). We arrive at clean EBIT of ~EUR 103m for Q2'24e.

Q2 preview

Elopak will report its quarterly results on 15 August. We reiterate BUY with a TP of NOK 42. Q2e: Adj. EBITDA of ~EUR 45.5m.

Q2 preview

UPM will report its next quarterly results on 23 July. We reiterate BUY with a TP of EUR 37 (36). Q2'24e EBIT of ~EUR 200m.

Q2 preview

SCA will report its next quarterly results on 26 July. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 175. We estimate clean Q2'24e EBIT of ~SEK 1,311m.

Q2 preview

Borregaard will report its next quarterly results on 17 July. We reiterate BUY with a TP of NOK 215 (205). Q2'24e EBITDA of ~NOK 500m.

Q2 preview

Stora will report its next quarterly results on 24 July. We reiterate BUY with a TP of EUR 14.5. Q2'24e operational EBIT of EUR ~150m.

Q2 preview

Holmen will report its next results on 15 August. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 470. Q2e EBIT of SEK ~890m.

Q2 preview

Billerud will report its next quarterly results on 19 July. We reiterate BUY with a TP of SEK 110. Q2e EBIT of SEK -65m.

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK37.00) - Q2 broadly in line with Q1

We estimate Q2 adj. EBITDA to be relatively flat QOQ at EUR46m (~3% above Bloomberg consensus), based on stable volumes and another strong quarter for Americas. We forecast a minor ~50bp reversal of last quarter’s historically high EBITDA margins, and an Americas adj. EBITDA of EUR16m. With Elopak currently trading at 2024–2025e P/Es of ~10.5–11.9x, a ~4% premium to Nordic paper and packaging peers, and an implied dividend yield of 4.5%, we see limited upside potential ahead. We reiterate our HO...

Borregaard (Buy, TP: NOK210.00) - Set for continued earnings growth

We forecast Q2 EBITDA of NOK514m and EPS of NOK2.7 (results due at 07:00 CET on 17 July). We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 3% to reflect BioSolutions improvements and are now ~2% above Bloomberg consensus. With the stock trading at a 2025–2026e EV/EBITDA of 9.4x and 10.4x, we continue to see upside potential. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK210 (200).

InsiderInsights.com Daily Ratings Report: June 20, 2024

InsiderInsights Ratings of Companies with Open-Market Form 4 Purchases; Sales Filed at the SEC on the date above. We separate the real investment intelligence from the noise. Saving you time, and improving your research process

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - New financial targets and buybacks

Essity this morning announced new annual financial targets, including a maintained organic growth target of >3% annually (despite Vinda having been a positive contributor), an adj. EBITA margin of >15%, above consensus, and a SEK3bn share buyback programme. If we apply a 15% margin to the 2025–2026e consensus sales figures, this implies consensus should come up c8–10%. We expect a positive share price reaction on the new targets and share buyback programme.

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Capital and targets in focus

We forecast sequentially higher raw materials costs to be offset by lower energy costs and improved underlying volumes, leaving us largely in line with Q2e consensus. We expect focus to be on its upcoming new financial targets and capital distribution following the Vinda divestment. We reiterate our BUY and SEK330 target price, as we continue to find the stock attractively valued at a 2025e P/E of c13.4x.