Leading indicators

OECD: The indicator points up from a low level. US: The indicator points up (housing starts, monetary policy, interest rates, real FX). EU: The indicator points up from a low level (bond yields, stock market). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy, housing starts).

Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA: 1 director

A director at Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA bought 7,000 shares at 158.480SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

Fresh paper cuts - newsprint benefits

Billerud (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - Keeping profits, avoiding capex

We believe Billerud’s announcement to pursue a more cautious investment strategy in the US could reduce its capex needs by cSEK5bn–7bn. Moreover, we believe the risk in our optimistic scenario has diminished, due to market improvements and recent price rises on key products. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK140 (130) also reflecting the balance sheet turning increasingly overcapitalised, which should raise expectations of excess-cash distribution.

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Scope for a revaluation

With ample evidence of improved demand for paper board and a better price outlook for market pulp, we believe earnings headwind has now turned into a tailwind. We also expect earnings to be driven by incremental volumes after capacity expansions at existing mills. After ambitious investments over the past three years, the company’s paper board capacity is up c25%, while its net long pulp position has increased by close to 30%. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR11 (...

March: Pulp shipments +8% y-o-y

Huhtamaki (Buy, TP: EUR47.00) - Flexing the Flexibles

We continue to believe the market is overlooking the sizeable Flexible Packaging step-up opportunity, with significant shareholder value potential from: 1) market share gains; 2) product simplification; and 3) footprint optimisation. With no estimate changes, we reiterate our BUY and EUR47 target price, and continue to find the NTM EV/EBIT of c12.5x (5-year average: c15.0x) attractive and a good entry point.

The milkman delivers again

Better from both segments — capturing market share. MTM EBITDA EUR 175m — adj. EPS ~NOK 3.4. 30% discount to peers — targets point to NOK 55/sh.

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK37.00) - Higher-than-expected Q1 margins

Elopak reported strong Q1 results, with the EBITDA margin in its European operations beating our and consensus forecast. We see the potential for an increased group EBITDA margin target at the CMD in September. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 7%, and in turn our target price to NOK37 (34). At the same time, we believe margins are at the high end of normalised levels, and struggle to see material upside potential from here. Trading at a 2025e P/E of ~12x, and with limited organic top-line gr...

9% EBITDA beat

EBITDA 9% above, margin 15.8%. Better from both EMEA (and Americas). Outlook reads positive

Huhtamaki Oyj: 1 director

A director at Huhtamaki Oyj maiden bought 1,000 shares at 39.145USD and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...