More than just a dollar play

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - Tailwinds ahead

We expect Norwegian Air Shuttle to report a weak Q1, hit by high capacity growth and Easter timing effects. However, we find the outlook for the summer season increasingly encouraging, with healthy demand, low supply growth and a positive cost impact from a weaker USD. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK15 (13) on positive revisions.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - February traffic statistic...

We consider this a neutral report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including a yield in line with expectations on a marginally lower load and positive booking comments. We expect only minor changes to consensus 2025e adj. EBITDA and believe a neutral share price reaction is warranted.

Feb below, good booking momentum

Traffic stats for Feb: Group sales 2bn, -3.9% vs us / cons on lower yield in NAS. Outlook: Sees good booking momentum

Buying used aircraft: Pos EPS effect

Buying 10 Boeing aircraft - should lift clean '25 EPS by ~10%

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - February traffic statistic...

February’s traffic statistics are due at 08:00 CET on 6 March. We expect a continued soft yield trend on high ASK growth and a significant increase in the average sector distance. Nevertheless, we reiterate our BUY and NOK13 target price as we still find the valuation attractive, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of 7x.

Summer decides - game on

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Time to tighten up

While Q4 adj. EBITDAR was above expectations, we see a slightly soft outlook for 2025, with stable bookings and a guidance of a single-digit CASK increase. We reiterate our BUY as we continue to find the stock attractively valued, but have lowered our target price to NOK13 (14) on negative estimate revisions.

Q4 as expected

Clean EBIT in-lien with cons.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - January traffic statistics

We consider this a neutral report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including figures for Norwegian Air in line with expectations and Widerøe marginally below. We expect only minor changes to consensus 2025e adj. EBITDA and believe a neutral share price reaction is warranted.

Revenue for Jan as expeced

Group sales 1.98bn. 0% vs us (load 1pp below, yield 2% better)

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - January traffic statistics...

Norwegian Air Shuttle is due to report January traffic statistics at 08:00 CET on 6 February. We expect a soft yield trend on high ASK growth and a significant increase in average flight distance. However, we believe this is largely expected and we see a brighter future than is discounted in the share price, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of c5.5x. We reiterate our BUY and NOK14 target price.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - Q4 profit warning

Norwegian Air Shuttle has announced a Q4 profit warning, expecting 2024 EBIT of NOK1,850m compared to its previous guidance of NOK2.1bn–2.4bn. The shortfall is explained by a weak NOK against the USD, which has led to NOK200m in non-recurring losses related to balance sheet adjustments. However, adjusting for the non-recurring losses, we calculate adj. EBIT 3% above our forecast with 2024 CASK ex-fuel in line with our forecast, while we see a 3% shortfall relative to consensus. We expect a sligh...

PW due to FX - '24 EBIT -12% vs. cons

PW - new guidance -12% vs. cons and -10% vs. ABG. Revision driven by FX, NOK -200m in one-off (weak NOK vs. USD)

Irregularity hitting Q4

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates to reflect the December traffic statistics. We have raised our 2024–2025e adj. EBIT by 1%. We forecast Q4 adj. EBITDA of NOK1,280m, 7% below consensus (the results are due at 07:00 CET on 13 February). We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK14 target price.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - December traffic statistic...

We consider this a slightly positive report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, as a higher-than-expected yield offset a weaker-than-expected load. We expect c0.5% positive changes to consensus 2024e EBITDA and believe a neutral to slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Revenue for Dec 1.7% below

Group sales 2.3bn. 1.7% below cons (NAS explaing the small miss)

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - Look beyond soft Q4e to 20...

We are lukewarm ahead of the Q4 report, expecting the results to be below consensus and down YOY on higher costs. 2025e underlying cost inflation remains a challenge, but we expect this to be more than offset by higher yields reflecting limited capacity growth and an improved consumer backdrop. We reiterate our BUY and NOK14 target price, as we still find the stock attractively valued at a 2025e PE of c6x.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - November traffic statistic...

We consider this a positive report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, including figures slightly above expectations for both Norwegian Air and Widerøe and positive outlook comments on bookings. We expect 1% positive revisions to consensus 2024e adj. EBITDA and believe a slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.