UCN2 is heating up

Gubra (Buy, TP: DKK750.00) - CRO off to a weak start to the year; focu...

Contract research organisation (CRO) posted c-14% YOY organic sales growth (we forecast 7.0%) and a 21.3% adj. EBIT margin (we forecast 28.8%) for Q1. While the company had flagged limiting CRO organic growth (to prioritise R&D), we find c-14% organic growth disappointing. Discovery & partnership (D&P) posted revenue of DKK6.9m (we forecast DKK9.5m) and adj. EBIT of DKK-54.2m (we forecast DKK-41.1m). We expect the stock to underperform the market today.

Gubra (Buy, TP: DKK750.00) - Tough CRO comparable in Q1

We forecast Q1 contract research organisation (CRO) organic revenue growth of 7.0% YOY on a tough comparable, and a 28.8% adj. EBIT margin. We note CRO order inflow is intentionally capped to prioritise discovery & partnership (D&P) resourcing. For D&P, we forecast DKK9.5m in revenue and DKK-41.1m in adj. EBIT, reflecting pipeline investments. We expect unchanged 2025 guidance. We reiterate our BUY and DKK750 target price.

Gubra - Initiation of coverage - Punching above its weight class

Gubra is a contract research organisation (CRO) and biotech company with a focus on obesity and metabolic diseases. We see the lead asset, GUBamy, as a competitive amylin, offering GLP-1-like efficacy, while its 11-day half-life profile promotes sustained weight loss. Based on our market model, we expect its obesity franchise to reach a 2.7% share of the cUSD229bn market by 2044e, driving long-term value. We initiate coverage with a BUY and DKK750 target price.