HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: WP boosts media margins (stays BUY) • Aselsan: 2Q24 IAS 29 results – strong execution POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 2Q24 EBITDA 10% above our forecast and 5% above the consensus, on higher margin POSITIVE • Inter Cars: August sales growth at 8% yoy, in line with our expectations NEUTRAL • PCF Group: new work-for-hire agreement with Krafton; PLN 7m write-off on Project Red POSITIVE • Santander Bank Polska: strategic investor wants to reduce its stake • Kazatomprom: obtains...
We maintain our BUY rating on Inter Cars (CAR) and our HOLD on Auto Partner (APR). The 2024E outlook now seems more challenging for auto parts distributors than we assumed in our February update. We believe, however, that this has already been priced in by the market. The key differences in the 2024E outlook between APR and CAR were reflected in the 1Q24 yoy SG&A dynamics, with CAR weathering the cost pressure better, in our view. Despite the short-term challenges, we believe the long-term funda...
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
HEADLINES: • DIGI Communications: heavyweight European telco champion (upgraded to BUY) • PZU: posts PLN 1.19bn of net profit in 2Q24; results affected by higher combined ratio in P&C NEUTRAL • Motor Oil Hellas: 2Q24 results POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 2Q24 EBITDA 4-7% above expectations; Polaris to enter production phase “very soon” NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: 2Q24 EBITDA 8% above our forecast, but in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 2Q24 – in line, at first glance NEUTRAL • CA Immo: 2Q24 i...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: 2Q24 results broadly in line, FY24E guidance unchanged, new taxes in Hungary to bite a little NEUTRAL • Bank of Cyprus: 2Q24 highlights POSITIVE • Bucharest Stock Exchange: good volumes drive solid bottom-line delivery in 2Q24 NEUTRAL • MOL: 2Q24 results NEUTRAL • Magyar Telekom: key takeaways from the 2Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • CEZ: takeaways from the 2Q24 earnings call POSITIVE • Inter Cars: July sales growth jumps to 18% yoy, after disappointing May-June POSITIVE • DI...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: how strong are the recession signals? • Richter: well-rounded 2Q24 beat vs. the consensus POSITIVE • Tupras: 2Q24 results and dividend announcement POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 2Q24 – RASK up 1% and CASKX up 8% yoy, driving margins lower from peak levels, as expected NEUTRAL • Arabian Drilling: 2Q24 results below expectations NEGATIVE • Air Astana Group: 2Q24 in line, but 1H24 EBIT and FCFE both down yoy, and VietJet entry into Kazakhstan a risk NEUTRAL • KazMuna...
EME Equity Market – July 2024 Greece the biggest winner, while Poland the clear loser in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.1% in EUR terms and 0.3% in USD terms in July. The Greek ASE Index posted the best performance for the month, advancing by 5.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a broadly similar performance in Hungary, Czechia and Romania (+ 2.9%, 2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Turkish ISE30 Index declined by 1.6% mom in EUR terms, but the clear loser was the Polis...
HEADLINES: • Romania macro: NBR delivers first rate cut • Inter Cars: June sales up by a limited 3% yoy, disappointing second month in a row NEGATIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: teams up, reportedly, with Terna Energy for offshore wind in Greece POSITIVE • Jahez: submits transfer request to the main market POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: completion of Stage 1 of share capital increase and opening of Stage 2 NEUTRAL • Arcelik: potential closure of Yate plant in the UK NEUTRAL • Short News (CPS)
EME Equity Market – June 2024 Another positive month for most of the EME indices, with the Hungarian BUX Index outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 1.0% in EUR terms, but declined -0.2% in USD terms in June. The Hungarian BUX index reported the strongest performance, adding 4.8% in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Polish WIG20 (+3.7% and 2.1%, in EUR terms, respectively), and the Turkish ISE30 (+0.9% in EUR terms). Greece and the Czech Republic were in negative territor...
HEADLINES: • Europe macro: European parliamentary elections – broadly as expected • Greece macro: 1Q GDP flash estimate shows improvement • Inter Cars: May sales up by a mere 2% yoy NEGATIVE • OMV: New Zealand to lift ban on oil exploration, which may benefit the company POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: to acquire PV projects with 130 MW capacity, with partner Renovatio NEUTRAL • Short News (BHW, HUG)
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • VIGO Photonics: 1Q24 – miss on adjusted EBITDA and bottom line NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: 1Q24 EBITDA 5-7% above our and the market's expectations, no major surprises from the earnings call NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA in line with both our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Motor Oil Hellas: 1Q24 results – CCS EBITDA in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Teknosa: higher financing costs weighed on the bottom line in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Kazatomprom: 1Q24 results – lower E...
HEADLINES: • Allegro: 1Q24 strong, as expected, guidance for GMV acceleration in 2Q24E POSITIVE • Turkish Airlines: 1Q24 – revenue up, but EBITDA down yoy, as ex-fuel CASK up in mid-single digits, but RASK down 6% yoy NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola Icecek: strong operating results in 1Q24 POSITIVE • Tupras: 1Q24 results – weak results, on maintenance NEGATIVE • Logo Yazilim: 1Q24 results – on track POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 1Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA +1% yoy, 2% above our estimate POSITIVE • In...
HEADLINES: • Czech banks: special sector levy headlines continue to flow NEGATIVE • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: 1Q24 interim financial results POSITIVE • GEVORKYAN: 1Q24 – strong set of results, with EBITDA up 24% yoy, 17% above our estimate POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (13-19 May) • Inter Cars: 25% yoy 1Q24E EBITDA decline, on top line and FX-related gross margin weakness (due on 22 May) • Short News (DAT, OTE)
HEADLINES: • Budimex: 1Q24 EBIT 13% above our forecast on solid gross margin, but broadly in line with the consensus POSITIVE • European oil and gas monthly: April 2024 – margins retreating • Bank Handlowy: to pay PLN 10/share dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: estimates cost of credit holidays extension at PLN 489m NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: expects a PLN 201-247m impact from the 2024E credit holidays extension for PLN mortgagors NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: April sales recover by 19.5% yoy POSITIVE • MOL: 1Q...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: weak bottom-line performance in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Sipchem: 1Q24 results – weak net income NEGATIVE • Kruk: issues flash 1Q24 net profit of PLN 338m NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 April) • Türkiye macro: MPC takes a pause, but hiking cycle not over yet • OTP Bank: CEO Csanyi speaks at AGM on future acquisitions and Russian exposure POSITIVE • Budimex: BXF Energia acquires 60 MW photovoltaic project NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: dividend policy for 2023-25E and p...
HEADLINES: • Jeronimo Martins: small beat in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 4Q23 net profit in line with prelims, a miss vs. our initial forecasts due to lower gross margin NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: 4Q23 earnings call takeaways – supportive 2024E outlook POSITIVE • Shoper: earnings call takeaways – strong April, optimistic on 2024E outlook POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: MPC takes a pause, but hiking cycle not over yet • Uzbekistan macro: CBU keeps rates on hold • Polish banks: Polish Supreme Court reconfirms th...
HEADLINES: • Sok Marketler: weak performance in the 4Q23 results • Inter Cars: targets 15-17% yoy revenue growth this year • Polish telecoms: telecommunications fee to grow from 0.05% of sales to 0.15% sales • Polish media: CPS audience share at 21.53%, WP TV at 0.61% in March 2024 • OMV Petrom: 1Q24E results preview (due out 30 April)
HEADLINES: • Middle Eastern Oil Services: we’re going with what’s growing (ADNOC Drilling upgraded to BUY, Arabian Drilling downgraded to HOLD) • Public Power Corporation: 4Q23 earnings review NEUTRAL • Kruk: 1Q24 trading update shows strong recoveries POSITIVE • Budimex: 4Q23 figures in line with the preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Budimex: management recommends PLN 35.69 DPS (5% dividend yield), above our expectations POSITIVE • Polish utilities: Industry Ministry plans to link mines to coal-fi...
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