reports
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – 1H25 Results Preview: Diverging Earnings Growth
We expect the banking sector’s 1H25 results to be broadly in line with expectations, despite a possible underperformance from BBRI and BRIS. BBCA remains strong while BBNI and BMRI should post muted earnings growth. NIM pressure is likely to persist due to tight liquidity. Loan growth decelerated but is expected to recover in 2H25. NPLs for auto and mortgage are inching up, but overall asset quality remains sound. We maintain OVERWEIGHT, supported by a dovish BI policy, easing SRBI yields and ex...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – Loan Growth Slows, All Eyes On Fiscal Spending Acceleration
Loan growth slowed to 8.1% yoy in May 25 due to tight liquidity and weak credit appetite. Deposit growth remained soft at 3.9% yoy, weighed down by front-loaded government bond issuance, diverting liquidity. We expect BI to continue unwinding SRBI and deliver further rate cuts in 2H25. Fiscal spending showed early signs of acceleration to Rp1,406t in 6M25 (5M25: Rp1,016t). With the deficit revised to 2.78% of GDP, further fiscal spending is anticipated. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, July 03, 2025
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. Sector Online Games Upcoming new game releases to capitalise on the summer holiday season. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June Our new alpha picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA...
AEONTS AEON THANA SINSAP (THAILAND) PCL
CK CH. KARNCHANG PCL
KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD PCL
A0M4P7 HAN'S LASER TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
AIY IFAST
COM7 COM7
558 UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
002472 ZHEJIANG SHUANGHUAN DRIVELINE (A)
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL PCL
MIKA MITRA KELUARGA KARYASEHAT
SAWAD SRISAWAD CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
CPALL TB CP ALL
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
PROP PROPNEX LTD
FEH FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
02618 JD LOGISTICS INC
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
STECON STECON GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
TIDLOR TIDLOR HOLDINGS PCL
3750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY (3750 HK)
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June
Our Jun 25 portfolio outperformed the JCI and LQ45 by +5.1%/+7.1% respectively, mainly driven by DKFT (+16% performance) and outperformances by other stocks such as ANTM, CMRY and AMRT. Several major events to watch out this month include upcoming IPOs (especially the sizeable Chandra Daya Investasi (CDIA) IPO worth about US$143m) and the outcome of the US-Indo reciprocal tariffs discussion on 9 July. Our new Alpha Picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA, AMRT and TLKM.
- Johnny Yum
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Colin Lee
- Ejann Hiew
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Johnny Yum
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, June 23, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Insurance Weighing the risks and returns. Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$65.15/Target: HK$100.00) Takeaways from 2025 Investor Day. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Strategy Challenging Macro Environment Adds To Case For Rate Cut Our top picks are BBCA, BBRI, ANTM, AMRT, ICBP, CMRY and ERAA. MALAYSIA Sector Automobile ...
CK CH. KARNCHANG PCL
OU8 CENTURION
PRU PRUDENTIAL PLC
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
4197 SIME DARBY BHD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
5347 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
2318 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
MLK MALAKOFF CORP BHD
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
GMB GAS MALAYSIA BHD
BRC BRC ASIA LTD
HLA HONG LEONG ASIA LTD
TWC TIONG WOON CORPORATION HOLDING
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
PAN SP PAN-UNITED CORPORATION (PAN SP)
STECON STECON GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
PECCA MK PECCA GROUP BHD
- Johnny Yum
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Challenging Macro Environment Adds To Case For Rate Cut
The JCI rebounded to about 7,000 after bottoming out at 5,968 on 9 April, following a series of developments including corporate buyback announcements, the creation of Danantara, and market anticipation of a BI rate cut which materialised on 21 May (25bp cut). Catalysts to monitor in 2H25 include: a) further BI rate cut(s), b) a slowdown in SRBI reissuance which would free up banking liquidity, c) further government economic stimulus measures, and d) heavier government spending.
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Johnny Yum
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Challenging Macro Environment, More Reason For A Rate Cut
The JCI rebounded to about 7,000 after bottoming out at 5,968 on 9 April, following a series of developments including corporate buyback announcements, the creation of Danantara, and market anticipation of a BI rate cut which materialised on 21 May (25bp cut). Catalysts to monitor in 2H25 are further rate BI cut(s), a slowdown in SRBI reissuance which would free up banking liquidity, further government economic stimulus measures, and heavier government spending. • In need of a rate cut and an in...
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Takeaways From Our Marketing Trip To Kuala Lumpur
We met with 12 investors in Kuala Lumpur, and the overall tone among Malaysian-based funds can be best described as cautious but engaged. Indonesia remains firmly on their radar, but several overhangs persist, particularly around the evolving political landscape, policy clarity, the free meal programme and weak purchasing power. 2H25 government spending and a further rate cut are catalysts, in our view. Our year-end target for the JCI is 7,500.
- Benyamin Mikael
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Philip Wong
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, June 18, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Takeaways from channel check at The Southside. INDONESIA Strategy Higher Oil Prices Bode Well For Some Participants Beneficiaries of higher oil prices. Takeaways From Our Marketing Trip To Kuala Lumpur Cautious but engaged. MALAYSIA Sector Construction Sector resists tensions from global uncerta...
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
AKRA PT AKR CORPORINDO TBK
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
5226 GABUNGAN AQRS
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
GAM GAMUDA BHD
ROTH BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO BHD
SCGB SUNWAY CONSTRUCTION GROUP BH
IJM IJM CORP BHD
FNH FRASER & NEAVE HOLDINGS BHD
HEIM HEINEKEN MALAYSIA BHD
CAB CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA B
MRC MALAYSIAN RESOURCES CORP BHD
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
KPG KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BHD
NESZ NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD
QLG QL RESOURCES BHD
WCTHG WCT HOLDINGS BHD
MRDIY MR DIY GROUP M BHD
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
FFB FARM FRESH BHD
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
99SMART 99 SPEED MART RETAIL HOLDINGS BHD
KOPI MK ORIENTAL KOPI HOLDINGS BHD
ECOSHOP MK ECO-SHOP MARKETING BHD
- Benyamin Mikael
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, June 18, 2025
Strategy: Higher Oil Prices Bode Well For Some Market Participants: Beneficiaries of higher oil prices. Takeaways From Our Marketing Trip To Kuala Lumpur: Cautious but engaged. TRADERS’ CORNER Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ): Technical BUY Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ): Technical BUY
- Chong Lee Len
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, June 16, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: Credit demand stays weak. Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$413.60/Target: HK$470.00): More listings, enhanced liquidity and high turnover to drive further upside. Reiterate BUY. INDONESIA Update Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp9,025/Target: Rp10,500): Steady growth with a focus on efficiency and risk discipline. MALAYSIA Update TIME dotCom (TDC MK/BUY/RM5.22/Target: RM6.00): TIME to deliver sustainable growth over peers on the back o...
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Steady Growth With Focus On Efficiency A...
Amid the challenging economic environment, BBCA continues to prioritise margin stabilisation and efficiency over aggressive loan growth. Cost leadership is reinforced by automation and a scalable in-house data centre. Asset quality remains sound despite a mild uptick in retail NPLs, with robust LaR coverage of 66.5% in Mar 25. We expect the financial impact from BBCA’s participation in the 3m houses programme to be negligible (0.02% to loans). Maintain BUY with unchanged target price of Rp10,500...
- Hendri Effendi
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking - Banking Liquidity: Measures Underway
Liquidity remains tight with deposit growth slowing and industry LDR rising to 90% in Apr 25. Banks relied on BI repo facilities while the overnight rate has consistently surpassed BI rate in recent weeks. Nevertheless, we expect liquidity to improve in 2H25 due to the recent rate cut, lower PLM, and higher foreign borrowing limits. SRBI issuance has eased though it remains substantial. Expected higher fiscal spending in 2H25 could facilitate greater liquidity. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Surplus Returns, Reform Ahead
Indonesia’s state budget turned into a surplus of Rp4.3t in Apr 25, reversing the deficit trend seen in Jan-Mar 25. Revenue reached Rp810.5t, down 12.4% yoy (27% of target), while spending was Rp806t, down 5.1% yoy (22% of target), mainly on reduced ministry outlays. Although tax revenue declined 8.7% yoy, it improved from previous months while non-tax revenue fell 24.7% due to redirected SOE dividends. Changes in leadership at tax and customs offices were made to accelerate tax reform and boost...
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