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Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Posmarito Pakpahan

Banking - Contained Banking-Sector Risk From Sumatra Floods

Sector Update | Banking The Sumatra floods have caused severe local disruptions and exacted a tragic humanitarian toll, resulting in a GDP drag of 0.1% in 4Q25. Banking-system exposure is modest at 5% of loans, with near-term pressure concentrated in micro and SME borrowers. Provisioning may rise slightly in 1Q26 but remains manageable given strong sector buffers. Exposure varies across banks, with BRIS and BBRI being the most affected. Despite short-term noise, the event does not alter the sect...

Maskun Ramli ... (+3)
  • Maskun Ramli
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Suryaputra Wijaksana

Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Economics | Directive Approach, Structural Limits: Assessing Indonesia's New Forex Proceed Rules Indonesia's 2026 revision of its export proceeds (DHE) rules mandates that all export earnings be placed exclusively in state-owned banks, while cutting the rupiah conversion limit to 50%. This state-directed strategy aims to mechanically boost forex reserves and stabilise the onshore currency market. However, it risks distorting the banking sector, creating liabilities for state banks and squeezing ...

Willinoy Sitorus
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Strategy - KTA From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur

Strategy | KTA From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur We conducted a marketing trip to Kuala Lumpur and met with more than 20 investors to present our 1H26 strategy. Among our four key themes, the strongest interest centred on the copper-related narrative, with many investors also asking if this is the right time to re-enter the banking and consumer sectors. Highlights • Interest largely centred on the copper-related theme. • Attractive risk-reward in selected large caps, with dividend y...

Maskun Ramli ... (+2)
  • Maskun Ramli
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Strategy | KTA From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur We conducted a marketing trip to Kuala Lumpur and met with more than 20 investors to present our 1H26 strategy. Among our four key themes, the strongest interest centred on the copper-related narrative, with many investors also asking if this is the right time to re-enter the banking and consumer sectors. Technical Analysis Sumber Alfaria Trijaya | AMRT IJ Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp1,920, and take profit at Rp2,0...

Johnny Yum
  • Johnny Yum

Strategy - Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA,TLKM

Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA, TLKM The JCI rebounded strongly in November, supported by improved liquidity, risk-on sentiment, and US$730m foreign inflows. Our portfolio lagged (+0.8% vs JCI’s +4.0%) due to weakness in AADI, JPFA, MDKA, and ADRO. While December historically delivers positive returns, its reliability now hinges more on liquidity and global risk appetite. We turn selective, removing AADI and ADRO due to coal-duty uncertainty, and adding BBCA, T...

Chong Lee Len ... (+8)
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Johnny Yum
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, December 04, 2025

Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut improved sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Jacobson,...

Johnny Yum ... (+2)
  • Johnny Yum
  • Maskun Ramli

Indonesia Daily - Thursday, December 4, 2025

Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA, TLKM The JCI rebounded strongly in November, supported by improved liquidity, risk-on sentiment, and US$730m foreign inflows. Our portfolio lagged (+0.8% vs JCI’s +4.0%) due to weakness in AADI, JPFA, MDKA, and ADRO. While December historically delivers positive returns, its reliability now hinges more on liquidity and global risk appetite. We turn selective, removing AADI and ADRO due to coal-duty uncertainty, and adding BBCA, T...

Johnny Yum ... (+2)
  • Johnny Yum
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Strategy - A Broader Market Narrative

Strategy | A Broader Market Narrative The JCI enters 2026 with improving liquidity, firmer fiscal execution and gradually improving earnings, supporting our 9,200 index target on a 9% EPS growth. Large-cap underperformance in 2025 was driven by positioning, but rotation should broaden as macro conditions stabilise. Our 2026 strategy balances structural growers (ASSA, CMRY, HEAL, JPFA), dollar-earning commodity names (ARCI, BRMS, DEWA, MDKA) and quality defensives such as BBCA and TLKM. Key risks...

Desmond Chong Chee Wai ... (+17)
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Johnny Yum
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kai Jie Tang
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Ming San Soong
  • Philip Wong
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Suryaputra Wijaksana
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, December 03, 2025

Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...

HMPRO HOME PRODUCT CENTER PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BJC BERLI JUCKER PUBLIC CO. LTD.
02313 SHENZHOU INTERNATIONAL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
C09 CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
COM7 COM7
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
5347 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
SATS SP SATS LTD.
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
KPJ KPJ HEALTHCARE BERHAD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
CPALL TB CP ALL
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
RSTON RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LTD
CRC CENTRAL RETAIL CORP
FEH FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LTD
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
HEAL MEDIKALOKA HERMINA
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
09888 BAIDU INC
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
02423 KE HOLDINGS INC.
DOHOME DOHOME PCL
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
0303 ALPHA IVF GROUP
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
CPAXT CP AXTRA PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KOPI MK ORIENTAL KOPI HOLDINGS BHD
BRMS IJ BUMI RESOURCES MINERALS
1698 HK TENCENT MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT GROUP
DEWA IJ DARMA HENWA (DEWA IJ)
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
ASL SP ASL MARINE (ASL SP)
UGAI ULTRAGREEN.AI LIMITED
HERE US HERE GROUP (HERE US)
Johnny Yum ... (+4)
  • Johnny Yum
  • Maskun Ramli
  • Suryaputra Wijaksana
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, December 3, 2025

Economics | Indonesia's Trade Surplus Contracts On Surging Imports Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed to $2.39b in Oct 25 as a surge in imports, driven by strong domestic demand and government spending, outpaced a modest export decline. While underlying cumulative trends remain positive, the surplus is expected to shrink further through 2025 due to a slowing global economy and robust import growth. Looking ahead, the 2026 outlook faces headwinds from protectionist policies targeting key exports ...

Alden Gabriel Lam ... (+7)
  • Alden Gabriel Lam
  • Andrew Agita Buntoro
  • Audrey Celia
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Johnny Yum
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Strategy - A Broader Market Narrative

Highlights • Stock rotations to broaden in 2026 as macroeconomic environment and liquidity improve, easing the flow-driven divergence seen in 2024-25. • Balanced portfolio of defensives, flow proxies, compelling growth and US dollar earners supports our 2026 year-end JCI target of 9,200. Analysis • Non-LQ45 outperformance defines 2025. The LQ45 Index has underperformed the JCI by 16% ytd, extending the lag that began in 2024 (-12% vs JCI) amid muted big bank earnings. The gap has been driven mo...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+16)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Joyce Chu
  • Kate Luang
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Ken Lee
  • Philip Wong
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Greater China Company Results | Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$17.20/Target: HK$42.00 Geely’s 3Q25 results meet expectations with GAAP net profit/core net profit growing 58%/19% yoy and 6%/24% qoq to Rmb3.82b/Rmb3.96b respectively. Earnings growth will be driven by a strong product cycle, optimisation of sales mix, penetration into overseas markets, and consolidation of its brand portfolios. We maintain our 2025-27 earnings estimates. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$42.00 pegged...

Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Posmarito Pakpahan

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Signs Of A Clean-Up Phase; Fundamentals ...

Company Update | Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,575/Target: Rp10,100) BBCA posted steady 10M25 results, with PPOP up 7.6% yoy but net profit rising only 4.4% yoy due to higher provisions. Asset quality remains solid, with declining restructuring and SML and limited migration, which could indicate a late-cycle clean-up. Loan growth stays on track and NIM remains stable, although a mild compression is expected in 2026. We maintain BUY given BBCA’s strong fundamentals, with a lower target price...

Maskun Ramli ... (+2)
  • Maskun Ramli
  • Posmarito Pakpahan

Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Company Update | Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,575/Target: Rp10,100) BBCA posted steady 10M25 results, with PPOP up 7.6% yoy but net profit rising only 4.4% yoy due to higher provisions. Asset quality remains solid, with declining restructuring and SML and limited migration, which could indicate a late-cycle clean-up. Loan growth stays on track and NIM remains stable, although a mild compression is expected in 2026. We maintain BUY given BBCA’s strong fundamentals, with a lower target price...

Willinoy Sitorus
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Strategy - JCI Down On MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology

Strategy | JCI Down on MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology The JCI fell 1.87% after MSCI proposed changes to free float calculation, triggering selling of large caps, especially conglomerate-theme stocks. The proposal implies higher free float thresholds for most MSCI EM Indonesian stocks, raising exclusion risks for some constituents. The methodology remains under consultation, with outcomes dependent on feedback and MSCI's final review by 31 Dec 25. Re-iterate our preference for big-cap lagg...

Maskun Ramli ... (+2)
  • Maskun Ramli
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Strategy | JCI Down on MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology The JCI fell 1.87% after MSCI proposed changes to free float calculation, triggering selling of large caps, especially conglomerate-theme stocks. The proposal implies higher free float thresholds for most MSCI EM Indonesian stocks, raising exclusion risks for some constituents. The methodology remains under consultation, with outcomes dependent on feedback and MSCI's final review by 31 Dec 25. Re-iterate our preference for big-cap lagg...

Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Posmarito Pakpahan

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - 3Q25: Resilient Earnings, Constructive O...

Company Results | Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500) BBCA’s 3Q25 net profit fell 3.3% qoq on higher provisions, while 9M25 earnings rose 5.7% yoy on stable NIM and tight cost control (CIR: 29.2%). Management has turned more constructive on 4Q25-2026, keeping its 6-8% loan growth guidance for 2025. It expects a stronger domestic economy and solid asset quality to improve its 2026 performance. A Rp5t buyback will trim CET1 to 29% with a likely interim dividend in Nov/Dec 25....

Maskun Ramli ... (+2)
  • Maskun Ramli
  • Posmarito Pakpahan

Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Company Results | Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500) BBCA’s 3Q25 net profit fell 3.3% qoq on higher provisions, while 9M25 earnings rose 5.7% yoy on stable NIM and tight cost control (CIR: 29.2%). Management has turned more constructive on 4Q25-2026, keeping its 6-8% loan growth guidance for 2025. It expects a stronger domestic economy and solid asset quality to improve its 2026 performance. A Rp5t buyback will trim CET1 to 29% with a likely interim dividend in Nov/Dec 25....

Chong Lee Len ... (+6)
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Greater China Company Update | PICC P&C (2328 HK/BUY/HK$19.04/Target: HK$22.20) PICC P&C issued a positive profit alert, expecting its net profit to surge 40-60% in 9M25, attributed to a significant increase in underwriting profit and strong investment gains amid the stock market rally. We forecast continued CoR improvement in 4Q25, supported by the implementation of non-auto commission reforms effective from 1 Nov 25. We lift our 2025 earnings estimates by 8.9% to factor in the 3Q25 positiv...

Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Posmarito Pakpahan

Strategy - Tactical Rotation To Big Cap Laggards

There has been a positive US$194m mtd equity inflow, reversing last year’s persistent outflow, although banks remain the largest source of foreign selling as flows rotate toward gold and MSCI-linked names. Domestically, sentiment is turning more constructive for 4Q25-2026, supported by fiscal acceleration, pro-growth policies, monetary easing, and improving banking liquidity. If macro conditions stabilise, we see market leadership shifting from flow-driven to earnings-driven performance. We add ...

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