reports
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Plenty Of Room For Growth
BBCA’s assets are more sensitive to interest rate changes than its deposits which could cause NIM compression during rate cuts. Nevertheless, BBCA has sufficient flexibility to manage its NIM on the back of ample liquidity and CASA-dominated funding. Given its ample liquidity, high CAR, robust coverage, and low credit cost, the bank is capable of taking more risk to grow its loans and increase its LDR to 80%. The SME segment could be one of the bank’s loan growth drivers. Maintain BUY with a tar...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Thursday, October 10, 2024
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp10,450/Target: Rp12,000): Plenty of room for growth. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp5,325/Target: Rp6,560): Aspires to book 20% ROE in 2028. TRADERS’ CORNER PP Persero (PTPP IJ): Technical BUY Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ): Technical BUY
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Damon Shen
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, October 10, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Property and Property Management Encouraging property sales during Golden Week; watching policy implementation and improvement in fundamentals in 4Q24. INDONESIA Asian Gems Corporate Highlights Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp10,450/Target: Rp12,000) Plenty of room to grow. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp5,325/Target: Rp6,560) Aspires to book 20% ROE in 2028. MALAYSIA Asian Gems Corporate Hi...
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
02669 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
SPOST SINGAPORE POST LTD
MSGB MAH SING GROUP BHD
06098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
6049 POLY PROPERTY SERVICES CO LTD
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
01209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES (RED CHIP)
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - Strong Loan Growth Continues; Asset Qual...
BBCA posted a 13.5% yoy net profit growth in 8M24 on the back of: a) strong loan growth, b) mild NIM expansion, c) manageable opex, and d) lower provision expenses. Looking at the monthly trend, 3Q24 net profit would likely be higher than 2Q24’s. Although the bank’s assets are more sensitive to interest rate changes than its deposits, we believe BBCA has sufficient flexibility to manage its NIM on the back of ample liquidity during rate cut cycles. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp12,000.
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Malaysia Research Team
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, September 26, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 4.8% yoy, missing estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV, and Geely. Top SELL: GAC. INDONESIA Update Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp10,850/Target: Rp12,000) Strong loan growth continues; asset quality remains solid. MALAYSIA Update SD Guthrie (SDG MK/HOLD/RM4.88/Target: RM4.75) Plantatio...
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
GFPT GFPT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
EGH EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
SASSR SASSEUR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
MUST MANULIFE US REAL ESTATE INV
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
ONEM 1LIFE HEALTHCARE
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
OXMU PRIME US REIT
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – Rate Cuts To Ease Pressure In CoF
A new rate-cut cycle has started with BI cutting the BI rate on 18 Sep 24. We expect the rate cut to ease the pressure on CoF and sustain the strong loan growth. Historically, banks’ earnings tend to grow faster after rate cuts which drive share prices. With BI’s 13% loan growth target and rate cuts to ease the pressure on CoF, we might have underestimated our net profit forecast of 11% in 2025. We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector. We have BUY ratings on BBNI, BBCA and BBTN.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – 7M24: NIM Might Have Bottomed Out
Strong loan growth continued in Jul 24 but BBRI’s loan growth decelerated as it focused on asset quality. Sector NIM might have bottomed out; BBCA posted a 20bp qoq NIM expansion while BMRI and BBNI recorded slight NIM expansion. CoF might drop in 2H24 with a better liquidity environment due to KLM expansion and lower SRBI rate and issuance. BBNI, BMRI and BBCA’s CoC stayed low at
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - 2Q24: Net Profit Up 8.7% yoy; Within Exp...
BBCA’s 2Q24 net profit grew 8.7% qoq and 10.4% yoy on the back of: a) NIM expansion, b) an 8.4% decline in opex, and c) a 20bp decline in CoC. The NIM expansion was due to changes in asset composition and improving LDR. LDR increased to 73% in Jun 24 (Mar 24: 71%). LaR ratio was low at 6.4% with LaR coverage at 71.2%. We make no changes in our earnings estimates. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Rp11,500 as we roll forward our target price to Jun 25.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kate Luang
- Ken Lee
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Philip Wong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Stevanus Juanda
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, July 26, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV insurance registration down 6.5% yoy and up 9% wow; in line. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Desay SV. Top SELL: XPeng. Property: Trim earnings estimates for Chinese developers amid ASP pressure and weakening consumption. Property Management: 1H24 preview: Development largely on track despite pressure on VAS. Results Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK/BUY/HK$4.02/Target: HK$6.05): 1H24: Accelerated brand recognition fuels greater product deplo...
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
AOT AIRPORTS OF THAILAND PUBLIC CO. LTD.
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
IGBREIT IGB REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT T
NESZ NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD
1523 PLOVER BAY TECHNOLOGIES LTD (1523 HK)
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Friday, July 26, 2024
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp10,300/Target: Rp11,500): 2Q24: Net profit up 8.7% qoq, within expectations. Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp4,700/Target: Rp5,400): 2Q24: Net profit drops 13% qoq on lower NIM and higher opex. Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ/BUY/Rp700/Target: Rp870): 2Q24: Raw material decline and strong growth in Malaysia; results above expectations. TRADERS’ CORNER Medikaloka Hermina (HEAL IJ): Technical BUY Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ): Technical BUY
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking - Investor Feedback On Banking Sector
With the expectation of Fed rate cuts in 2H24, we maintain OVERWEIGHT on Indonesian banks. A rate cut cycle has a positive impact on Indonesian banks as their earnings tend to accelerate during and after rate cuts, which will drive share prices. Government policies such as the free lunch programme could support the MSME segment’s recovery. The banks that will benefit from the most to the least in the lower rate environment are: BBRI>BBNI>BMRI>BBCA.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - The Beginning Of The Rate Cut Cycle
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research expects the US Fed to cut interest rates starting in 3Q24, with a 50bp cut in 2H24. BI is expected to hold its rate steady. The gap between the US Fed rate and the BI’s 7-day repo rate should widen and cause funds to flow back to Indonesian bonds, strengthening the rupiah. Higher GDP growth could also cause funds to flow back to Indonesian equities. Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BUKA, CMRY, ACES and JSMR. Our end-24 JCI target is 7,...
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Thursday, June 20, 2024
Strategy: The Beginning Of The Rate Cut Cycle: Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BUKA, CMRY, ACES and JSMR. We have an end-24 target of 7,800 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ): Technical BUY XL Axiata (EXCL IJ): Technical BUY
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - The Beginning Of The Rate Cut Cycle
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research expects the US Fed to cut interest rates starting in 3Q24, with a 50bp reduction in 2H24. BI is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady. This could widen the gap between the US Fed rate and the BI’s 7-day repo rate and cause funds to flow back into Indonesian bonds, strengthening the rupiah. Higher GDP growth could also translate to funds flowing back to Indonesian equities. Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BUKA, CMRY, ACES and JSMR...
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ITMG INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
SMGR SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Rally In 2H24 Likely
From the 10-year monthly return data, JCI delivered a positive return in five out of six months in 2H. The US Fed could start reducing interest rates by 3Q24 with BI holding steady. This could lead to funds flow to Indonesian bonds and Rp appreciation. Bank valuations are starting to look reasonably priced and can lead the 2H24 rally. A sizable of large cap names are currently trading below -1SD PE. Our picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BUKA, CMRY, ACES and JSMR. We have an end-24 ta...
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Monday, June 10, 2024
Strategy: Rally In 2H24 Likely: Our top picks: Banking – BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN; property – BSDE, CTRA; technology – BUKA; consumer – CMRY; retail – ACES; infrastructure – JSMR. TRADERS’ CORNER Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ): Technical BUY Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ): Technical BUY
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BSDE PT BUMI SERPONG DAMAI TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
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