reports
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - JCI Down On MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology
Strategy | JCI Down on MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology The JCI fell 1.87% after MSCI proposed changes to free float calculation, triggering selling of large caps, especially conglomerate-theme stocks. The proposal implies higher free float thresholds for most MSCI EM Indonesian stocks, raising exclusion risks for some constituents. The methodology remains under consultation, with outcomes dependent on feedback and MSCI's final review by 31 Dec 25. Re-iterate our preference for big-cap lagg...
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, October 28, 2025
Strategy | JCI Down on MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology The JCI fell 1.87% after MSCI proposed changes to free float calculation, triggering selling of large caps, especially conglomerate-theme stocks. The proposal implies higher free float thresholds for most MSCI EM Indonesian stocks, raising exclusion risks for some constituents. The methodology remains under consultation, with outcomes dependent on feedback and MSCI's final review by 31 Dec 25. Re-iterate our preference for big-cap lagg...
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - 3Q25: Resilient Earnings, Constructive O...
Company Results | Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500) BBCA’s 3Q25 net profit fell 3.3% qoq on higher provisions, while 9M25 earnings rose 5.7% yoy on stable NIM and tight cost control (CIR: 29.2%). Management has turned more constructive on 4Q25-2026, keeping its 6-8% loan growth guidance for 2025. It expects a stronger domestic economy and solid asset quality to improve its 2026 performance. A Rp5t buyback will trim CET1 to 29% with a likely interim dividend in Nov/Dec 25....
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Wednesday, October 22, 2025
Company Results | Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500) BBCA’s 3Q25 net profit fell 3.3% qoq on higher provisions, while 9M25 earnings rose 5.7% yoy on stable NIM and tight cost control (CIR: 29.2%). Management has turned more constructive on 4Q25-2026, keeping its 6-8% loan growth guidance for 2025. It expects a stronger domestic economy and solid asset quality to improve its 2026 performance. A Rp5t buyback will trim CET1 to 29% with a likely interim dividend in Nov/Dec 25....
- Chong Lee Len
- Jonathan Koh
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Malaysia Research Team
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, October 22, 2025
Greater China Company Update | PICC P&C (2328 HK/BUY/HK$19.04/Target: HK$22.20) PICC P&C issued a positive profit alert, expecting its net profit to surge 40-60% in 9M25, attributed to a significant increase in underwriting profit and strong investment gains amid the stock market rally. We forecast continued CoR improvement in 4Q25, supported by the implementation of non-auto commission reforms effective from 1 Nov 25. We lift our 2025 earnings estimates by 8.9% to factor in the 3Q25 positiv...
KTB KRUNG THAI BANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
4197 SIME DARBY BHD.
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
5347 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
5271 PECCA GROUP
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
PECCA MK PECCA GROUP BHD
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Strategy - Tactical Rotation To Big Cap Laggards
There has been a positive US$194m mtd equity inflow, reversing last year’s persistent outflow, although banks remain the largest source of foreign selling as flows rotate toward gold and MSCI-linked names. Domestically, sentiment is turning more constructive for 4Q25-2026, supported by fiscal acceleration, pro-growth policies, monetary easing, and improving banking liquidity. If macro conditions stabilise, we see market leadership shifting from flow-driven to earnings-driven performance. We add ...
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Monday, October 20, 2025
Strategy | Tactical Rotation to Big Cap Laggards There has been a positive US$194m mtd equity inflow, reversing last year’s persistent outflow, although banks remain the largest source of foreign selling as flows rotate toward gold and MSCI-linked names. Domestically, sentiment is turning more constructive for 4Q25-2026, supported by fiscal acceleration, pro-growth policies, monetary easing, and improving banking liquidity. If macro conditions stabilise, we see market leadership shifting from fl...
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, October 20, 2025
Greater China Company Results | Fuyao Glass (3606 HK/BUY/ HK$67.50/Target: HK$105.00) Fuyao Glass’ 3Q25 earnings miss stems from its margins, dragged by the US division and higher effective tax rate. Revenue grew 19% yoy on 11% sales volume growth and 7% ASP hike. Based on the lower margins, we trim our 2025-27 net profit forecasts by 5%/3%/2% to Rmb9.61b/Rmb10.98b/Rmb12.71b respectively, implying 19% CAGR. Earnings prospects remain positive on overseas market share gains, optimisation of pr...
BJC BERLI JUCKER PUBLIC CO. LTD.
KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD PCL
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
COM7 COM7
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
CPALL TB CP ALL
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Lester Siew
- Malaysia Research Team
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, October 13, 2025
Greater China Sector Update | Internet The growing robotaxi ecosystem is drawing in an increasing number of new entrants, including autonomous service providers and ride-hailing platforms. We expect technological maturity, policy support, and better fleet economics to drive a major expansion wave for the robotaxi industry into 2H25/2026, with China’s robotaxi fleet size expected to grow ten-fold during this period. We see material development and monetisation progress of Robotaxi, sparking r...
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
SOP SARAWAK OIL PALMS BERHAD
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
KIML KIM LOONG RESOURCES BHD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
IOI IOI CORP BHD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
GENP GENTING PLANTATIONS BHD
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
CRPU SASSEUR REIT (S CHIP)
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
OXMU PRIME US REIT
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
CLCT CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
09888 BAIDU INC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
MXNU ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT MGNT PTE LTD
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
BBYB BANK NEO COMMERCE
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking - Kopdes Credit Scheme: Policy-Heavy, Earnings-Light
Highlights • Kopdes is policy-driven but earnings-light, with an estimated 1% ROA before tax and credit costs (vs SOE banks’ >2% ROA); impact remains immaterial at Rp16t but will become more meaningful and riskier as disbursement scales up. • Governance risk is high, and while DigiKop and Task Force may enhance transparency and reduce misuse, failure to strengthen oversight could lead to elevated credit risk, profit erosion, and deeper ROA dilutions. • Maintain OVERWEIGHT, with accelerating loan...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Monday, October 13, 2025
Sector Update | Banking The government has launched the Rp16t Kopdes scheme through SOE banks at a fixed 6% lending rate to support cooperatives. While framed as inclusive financing, Kopdes is structurally earnings-light, generating about 1% ROA (vs >2% for SOE banks). The impact is negligible at the current scale, but dilution risk will rise if allocations expand without stronger credit discipline. Oversight via DigiKop and the joint task force is directionally positive, though execution remain...
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Malaysia Research Team
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Greater China Sector Update | Property Property investment has declined since Jul 25 due to weak demand, LGFV financing controls, slow destocking and urban-redevelopment, and limited new loans. Sep 25 data showed a rebound in Tier 1 city home sales, led by Shanghai. Central government capital is needed. However, the existing policy stance points to a low possibility of direct injection by the central government. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with CR Land as our top pick. Indonesia Strategy | T...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
4197 SIME DARBY BHD.
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
KTB KONTOOR BRANDS
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
PECCA MK PECCA GROUP BHD
NTTDCR SP NTT DC REIT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
BNASTRA BINASTRA (BNASTRA MK)
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Takeaways From Indo Marketing And NDR Trip To Taiwan
Highlights • The strategy marketing and non-deal roadshows (NDR) for SSIA and AVIA in Taipei (Taiwan) had a total of 21 meetings. • Indonesia remains an attractive market overall based on general feedback given discounted valuations and lucrative dividends, though investors are mindful of underlying risks and caveats.
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Hendri Effendi
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Strategy | Takeaways From Marketing and NDR Trip to Taiwan The Indonesia strategy marketing and NDRs for SSIA and AVIA in Taipei had 21 meetings. Investors seem to be engaged in the Indonesia market, particularly given the attractive valuations of blue chips and lucrative dividend yields, though investors are mindful of underlying risks and caveats. Technical Analysis Bumi Resources | BUMI IJ Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp120, and a target price of Rp129. Merdeka Copper Gold...
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Strategy - Takeaways From Purbaya’s Hearing With Parliament
Highlights • Purbaya signalled a pro-growth pivot by accelerating fiscal disbursement and aligning with monetary easing to “turn on both engines.” • The MoF injected Rp200t into SOE banks via deposit-on-call at a placement rate of 4%, while urging BI not to sterilise the liquidity. • Local news reported that a possible 2026 budget revision with higher regional transfers aims to further reinforce fiscal channels. Purbaya would like to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP.
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Monday, September 15, 2025
Strategy | Takeaways From Purbaya’s Hearing With Parliament The new Finance Minister signalled a pro-growth stance by channelling Rp200t of idle budget funds into SOE banks via deposit-on-call at 4% and urging BI not to sterilise liquidity. The move aims to revive credit flow, bolster household liquidity, and support consumer recovery. While BBNI and BMRI are most sensitive, BBNI and BBRI are better positioned to reprice costly deposits amid tight liquidity. Risks include fiscal dominance percep...
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Benyamin Mikael
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, September 9, 2025
Strategy: Impact Of Cabinet Reshuffle There are changes in the formation of ministers, with the Minister of Finance being a notable replacement. Share prices for big banks go down while cigarette stocks are up. The 2026 budget outlook and fiscal stance are key catalysts. Company Update | Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp3,610/Target: Rp4,000) ANTM’s 2H25 production is set to slow on supply constraints, with 2025 gold sales guided at about 43.8 tonnes (similar to 2024 level) and nickel ore at arou...
- Benyamin Mikael
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Claire Wang Kelai
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ming San Soong
- Philip Wong
- Sunny Chen
- Tham Mun Hon
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 09, 2025
Greater China Economics | Trade China’s export momentum softened in August as front-loaded US demand has faded, exposing the vulnerability of shipments to the US market. While the trade diversion supported flows to ASEAN and the EU, overall growth moderated. Imports also weakened amid subdued agricultural demand, despite firmer commodity-related inflows. Pro...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
ANTM PT ANEKA TAMBANG TBK
01093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
GGRM PT GUDANG GARAM TBK
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
6WX CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP CORP. LTD. CLASS H
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
00241 ALIBABA HEALTH INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY LTD.
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
2877 CHINA SHINEWAY PHARMACEUTICA
HCM HUTCHISON CHINA MEDITECH LIMITED
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
1833 PING AN HEALTHCARE AND TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED
DBB DUOPHARMA BIOTECH BHD
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
603882 GUANGZHOU KINGMED DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
1093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
603259 WUXI APPTEC CO. LTD. CLASS A
2269 WUXI BIOLOGICS (CAYMAN) INC.
OXMU PRIME US REIT
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
06160 BEIGENE LTD.
09888 BAIDU INC
BBNI WUXI APPTEC CO. LTD. CLASS H
300765 BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
300244 CSPC INNOVATION PHARMACEUTICAL CO L
DIAN DIAGNOSTICS GROUP CO
- Johnny Yum
Strategy - Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August
In Aug 25, our portfolio underperformed the JCI by 4.97%, largely driven by the sharp rally in conglomerate-related stocks following the inclusion of DSSA (Sinarmas Group) and CUAN (Prajogo Pangestu Group) in the MSCI Emerging Market Index. The largest contributors were DSSA, BREN, MLPT and SRAJ. Key events to watch this month are: a) the ongoing domestic demonstrations, and b) the Fed’s September policy decision. Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL.
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