Sector Update | Banking The Sumatra floods have caused severe local disruptions and exacted a tragic humanitarian toll, resulting in a GDP drag of 0.1% in 4Q25. Banking-system exposure is modest at 5% of loans, with near-term pressure concentrated in micro and SME borrowers. Provisioning may rise slightly in 1Q26 but remains manageable given strong sector buffers. Exposure varies across banks, with BRIS and BBRI being the most affected. Despite short-term noise, the event does not alter the sect...
Economics | Directive Approach, Structural Limits: Assessing Indonesia's New Forex Proceed Rules Indonesia's 2026 revision of its export proceeds (DHE) rules mandates that all export earnings be placed exclusively in state-owned banks, while cutting the rupiah conversion limit to 50%. This state-directed strategy aims to mechanically boost forex reserves and stabilise the onshore currency market. However, it risks distorting the banking sector, creating liabilities for state banks and squeezing ...
Strategy | KTA From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur We conducted a marketing trip to Kuala Lumpur and met with more than 20 investors to present our 1H26 strategy. Among our four key themes, the strongest interest centred on the copper-related narrative, with many investors also asking if this is the right time to re-enter the banking and consumer sectors. Highlights • Interest largely centred on the copper-related theme. • Attractive risk-reward in selected large caps, with dividend y...
Strategy | KTA From 1H26 Strategy Conference In Kuala Lumpur We conducted a marketing trip to Kuala Lumpur and met with more than 20 investors to present our 1H26 strategy. Among our four key themes, the strongest interest centred on the copper-related narrative, with many investors also asking if this is the right time to re-enter the banking and consumer sectors. Technical Analysis Sumber Alfaria Trijaya | AMRT IJ Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp1,920, and take profit at Rp2,0...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA, TLKM The JCI rebounded strongly in November, supported by improved liquidity, risk-on sentiment, and US$730m foreign inflows. Our portfolio lagged (+0.8% vs JCI’s +4.0%) due to weakness in AADI, JPFA, MDKA, and ADRO. While December historically delivers positive returns, its reliability now hinges more on liquidity and global risk appetite. We turn selective, removing AADI and ADRO due to coal-duty uncertainty, and adding BBCA, T...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut improved sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Jacobson,...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Bias Positive, Adding BBCA, DEWA, TLKM The JCI rebounded strongly in November, supported by improved liquidity, risk-on sentiment, and US$730m foreign inflows. Our portfolio lagged (+0.8% vs JCI’s +4.0%) due to weakness in AADI, JPFA, MDKA, and ADRO. While December historically delivers positive returns, its reliability now hinges more on liquidity and global risk appetite. We turn selective, removing AADI and ADRO due to coal-duty uncertainty, and adding BBCA, T...
Strategy | A Broader Market Narrative The JCI enters 2026 with improving liquidity, firmer fiscal execution and gradually improving earnings, supporting our 9,200 index target on a 9% EPS growth. Large-cap underperformance in 2025 was driven by positioning, but rotation should broaden as macro conditions stabilise. Our 2026 strategy balances structural growers (ASSA, CMRY, HEAL, JPFA), dollar-earning commodity names (ARCI, BRMS, DEWA, MDKA) and quality defensives such as BBCA and TLKM. Key risks...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Economics | Indonesia's Trade Surplus Contracts On Surging Imports Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed to $2.39b in Oct 25 as a surge in imports, driven by strong domestic demand and government spending, outpaced a modest export decline. While underlying cumulative trends remain positive, the surplus is expected to shrink further through 2025 due to a slowing global economy and robust import growth. Looking ahead, the 2026 outlook faces headwinds from protectionist policies targeting key exports ...
Highlights • Stock rotations to broaden in 2026 as macroeconomic environment and liquidity improve, easing the flow-driven divergence seen in 2024-25. • Balanced portfolio of defensives, flow proxies, compelling growth and US dollar earners supports our 2026 year-end JCI target of 9,200. Analysis • Non-LQ45 outperformance defines 2025. The LQ45 Index has underperformed the JCI by 16% ytd, extending the lag that began in 2024 (-12% vs JCI) amid muted big bank earnings. The gap has been driven mo...
Greater China Company Results | Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$17.20/Target: HK$42.00 Geely’s 3Q25 results meet expectations with GAAP net profit/core net profit growing 58%/19% yoy and 6%/24% qoq to Rmb3.82b/Rmb3.96b respectively. Earnings growth will be driven by a strong product cycle, optimisation of sales mix, penetration into overseas markets, and consolidation of its brand portfolios. We maintain our 2025-27 earnings estimates. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$42.00 pegged...
Company Update | Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,575/Target: Rp10,100) BBCA posted steady 10M25 results, with PPOP up 7.6% yoy but net profit rising only 4.4% yoy due to higher provisions. Asset quality remains solid, with declining restructuring and SML and limited migration, which could indicate a late-cycle clean-up. Loan growth stays on track and NIM remains stable, although a mild compression is expected in 2026. We maintain BUY given BBCA’s strong fundamentals, with a lower target price...
Company Update | Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,575/Target: Rp10,100) BBCA posted steady 10M25 results, with PPOP up 7.6% yoy but net profit rising only 4.4% yoy due to higher provisions. Asset quality remains solid, with declining restructuring and SML and limited migration, which could indicate a late-cycle clean-up. Loan growth stays on track and NIM remains stable, although a mild compression is expected in 2026. We maintain BUY given BBCA’s strong fundamentals, with a lower target price...
Strategy | JCI Down on MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology The JCI fell 1.87% after MSCI proposed changes to free float calculation, triggering selling of large caps, especially conglomerate-theme stocks. The proposal implies higher free float thresholds for most MSCI EM Indonesian stocks, raising exclusion risks for some constituents. The methodology remains under consultation, with outcomes dependent on feedback and MSCI's final review by 31 Dec 25. Re-iterate our preference for big-cap lagg...
Strategy | JCI Down on MSCI’s Proposed Inclusion Methodology The JCI fell 1.87% after MSCI proposed changes to free float calculation, triggering selling of large caps, especially conglomerate-theme stocks. The proposal implies higher free float thresholds for most MSCI EM Indonesian stocks, raising exclusion risks for some constituents. The methodology remains under consultation, with outcomes dependent on feedback and MSCI's final review by 31 Dec 25. Re-iterate our preference for big-cap lagg...
Company Results | Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500) BBCA’s 3Q25 net profit fell 3.3% qoq on higher provisions, while 9M25 earnings rose 5.7% yoy on stable NIM and tight cost control (CIR: 29.2%). Management has turned more constructive on 4Q25-2026, keeping its 6-8% loan growth guidance for 2025. It expects a stronger domestic economy and solid asset quality to improve its 2026 performance. A Rp5t buyback will trim CET1 to 29% with a likely interim dividend in Nov/Dec 25....
Company Results | Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500) BBCA’s 3Q25 net profit fell 3.3% qoq on higher provisions, while 9M25 earnings rose 5.7% yoy on stable NIM and tight cost control (CIR: 29.2%). Management has turned more constructive on 4Q25-2026, keeping its 6-8% loan growth guidance for 2025. It expects a stronger domestic economy and solid asset quality to improve its 2026 performance. A Rp5t buyback will trim CET1 to 29% with a likely interim dividend in Nov/Dec 25....
Greater China Company Update | PICC P&C (2328 HK/BUY/HK$19.04/Target: HK$22.20) PICC P&C issued a positive profit alert, expecting its net profit to surge 40-60% in 9M25, attributed to a significant increase in underwriting profit and strong investment gains amid the stock market rally. We forecast continued CoR improvement in 4Q25, supported by the implementation of non-auto commission reforms effective from 1 Nov 25. We lift our 2025 earnings estimates by 8.9% to factor in the 3Q25 positiv...
There has been a positive US$194m mtd equity inflow, reversing last year’s persistent outflow, although banks remain the largest source of foreign selling as flows rotate toward gold and MSCI-linked names. Domestically, sentiment is turning more constructive for 4Q25-2026, supported by fiscal acceleration, pro-growth policies, monetary easing, and improving banking liquidity. If macro conditions stabilise, we see market leadership shifting from flow-driven to earnings-driven performance. We add ...
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