reports
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – SOE Banks: Balancing Growth, Dividends And Leadership Change...
BBRI, BMRI and BBNI raised their 2024 DPRs, with share buybacks planned while maintaining their high-teens capital buffer. SOE banks saw major leadership changes. Overall, PPOP was flat with mixed profit trends, and loan growth was strong at 10.3% yoy in Feb 25. Danantara’s new leadership, comprising experienced professionals, may boost investor confidence. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top picks are: BBCA>BMRI>BBNI> BRIS>BBRI.
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Ejann Hiew
- Gigi Cheuk
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kate Luang
- Philip Wong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, March 27, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) 2024: Results in line; positive outlook for property sales in 2025. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$34.50/Target: HK$38.70) 2024: Results beat with 100% payout ratio; pursuing high-quality growth. Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$1.52/Target: HK$2.14) 2024: 2H24 revenue rebound; 3-5% revenue growth and improving net margin in 2025. Haidilao Internatio...
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
SPRC STAR PETROLEUM REFINING
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MNHB MYNEWS HOLDINGS BHD
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
2269 WUXI BIOLOGICS (CAYMAN) INC.
01209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES (RED CHIP)
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
BRIS BANK BRISYARIAH TBK
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
ITC I-TAIL CORPORATION PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Bank Central Asia Tbk PT: 8 directors
Eight Directors at Bank Central Asia Tbk PT bought 3,471,750 shares at between 8,337.484IDR and 8,975.050IDR. The significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company...
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Marketing Feedback From Taiwan
We mainly discussed macroeconomics, politics and Danantara with Taiwan investors. With government spending and the current political dynamics, we expect maturing SRBI to lift liquidity as its outstanding SRBI size accounts for about 10% of the industry’s deposits. The JCI’s PE valuation seems undemanding, at a 30% discount to its five-year historical average, but a sustained re-rating would require greater clarity on government policy execution and a clearer pro-mass market growth shift in econo...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Willinoy Sitorus
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Ejann Hiew
- Gigi Cheuk
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jieqi Liu
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kate Luang
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Lester Siew
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Philip Wong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, February 28, 2025
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales picked up wow while the wait-and-see sentiment continues. Upgrade Li Auto and XPeng from HOLD to BUY and raise target price to HK$156.00 and HK$110.00 respectively. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Results BeiGene (6160 HK/BUY/HK$161.60/Target: HK$220.00) 2024: Results beat; targets operating profit...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
S63 SINGAPORE TECHNOLOGIES ENGINEERING LTD
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
AMATA AMATA CORP
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
EGH EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AP AP THAILAND
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
MRDIY MR DIY GROUP M BHD
HLA HONG LEONG ASIA LTD
TAPG TRIPUTRA AGRO PERSADA PT
06160 BEIGENE LTD.
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
YZJFH YANGZIJIANG FINANCIAL HOLDING
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
1523 PLOVER BAY TECHNOLOGIES LTD (1523 HK)
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – Potential Upside From High DPR
SOE banks’ shareholder meeting will be held in late-Mar 25. We expect changes in management and high DPR. With BBRI/BMRI/BBNI’s DPR assumptions of 85%/60%/60%, banks offer a 9.3%/7.7%/8.0% dividend yield. With the government targeting a Rp200t dividend from SOEs (2023: Rp82t), we foresee higher-than-expected DPR. The high CET 1 and moderate loan growth target could allow banks to raise DPR. A 10bp increase in our DPR assumption will result in a 30-50bp decline in CET 1 ratio, ceteris paribus.
- Lester Siew
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, February 28, 2025
Banking: Potential upside from high DPR. Triputra Agro Persada (TAPG IJ/BUY/Rp770/Target: Rp940): 4Q24: Results a strong beat, with core net profit surging 172% qoq, led by sharp production recovery on top of higher ASPs. TRADERS’ CORNER Indika Energy (INDY IJ): Technical BUY Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur (ICBP IJ): Technical BUY
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Catching A Falling Knife Or Opportunity To Buy? We Say Buy
We think the current trajectory of the JCI presents a buying opportunity as: a) it is now trading at -2SD PE, similar to the levels seen during the pandemic, although the current situation may not be as severe; b) GDP is still expected to rise above 5%; and c) many programmes are driven by the government. We add defensive names with strong growth and attractive valuations to our recommendations. Our picks are BBCA, BBTN, CMRY, ICBP, KLBF, CTRA, AMRT, PGEO, TLKM and ISAT.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
PGEO PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
ISAT INDOSAT TBK PT
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Strategy: Catching A Falling Knife Or Opportunity To Buy? We Say Buy: Our picks are BBCA, BBTN, CMRY, ICBP, KLBF, CTRA, AMRT, PGEO, TLKM and ISAT. We have a lower end-25 target of 7,500 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ): Technical BUY Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
PGEO PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
ISAT INDOSAT TBK PT
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) - 2024: A 12.7% Net Profit Growth On Solid...
4Q24 net profit was down 3.7% qoq, but was up 12.3% yoy on the back of: a) strong loan growth, b) 10bp NIM expansion, and c) 70bp decline in CoC. Management provides lower than expected loan growth with stable NIM. However, we believe the bank could deliver better than its guidance given its ample liquidity, CASA-dominated funding, strong CAR, and robust coverage. We make no significant changes to our estimates. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price: Rp12,000.
- Hendri Effendi
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Jo Yee Ng
- Jonathan Koh
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Lester Siew
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, January 15, 2025
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Positive signs despite weak credit demand. Sector Baijiu Industry remains under pressure; conservative tone toward 2025; channel healthiness and price stability the key focuses. Downgrade the baijiu sector to UNDERWEIGHT. Metals and Mining ...
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
2899 ZIJIN MINING GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
BTPS BANK TABUNGAN PENSIUNAN NASIONAL SYARIAH
IOI IOI CORP BHD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
SPSB SP SETIA BHD
GENP GENTING PLANTATIONS BHD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
HAPL HAP SENG PLANTATIONS HOLDINGS BHD
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
KMLY KIMLY LTD
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
BBYB BANK NEO COMMERCE
Z29 029 GROUP SE
SDG SD GUTHRIE BHD
1787 SHANDONG GOLD MINING CO LTD
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – BBCA And BRIS To Deliver Double-digit Earnings Growth
Ytd net foreign sell-off has continued for some Indonesian banks which we believe provided attractive entry prices. Amid the headwinds from the uncertainty of rate cuts, tighter liquidity, and government policies, BBCA and BRIS could deliver double-digit earnings growth in 2024/25. Given its low LDR and strong CASA franchise, BBCA has room to manage its NIM. Hajj Wadiah savings accounts, the gold financing business, and bancassurance could be earnings growth drivers for BRIS in 2025.
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Banking – Investor Feedback: Investors Cautious On Rate Cut Uncertaint...
Feedback from investors during our annual strategy conference in Malaysia showed that they remain cautious on Indonesian banks as they are less optimistic about the rate cut outlook and liquidity tightening. We believe that higher government spending, which focuses on boosting consumption, could revitalise the domestic economy. Valuation is attractive as the big four banks are trading close to the mean five-year P/B. We maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector. Top picks: BBCA, BMRI, BBNI, BRIS and BBT...
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Strategy - Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies
Trump 2.0 is unlikely to deter Indonesia’s exports to the US as Indonesia should be able to maintain its cost competitiveness. Interest rates are likely to be reduced by 100bp in 2025 and our economist continues to foresee a stronger rupiah. For 2025, investors should focus on the beneficiaries of domestic policies, such as the automobile, banking, consumer, property and technology sectors. Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
- Hendri Effendi
- Johnny Yum
- Stevanus Juanda
Indonesia Daily - Friday, November 29, 2024
Strategy: Focus On Beneficiaries Of Domestic Policies: Our top picks are BBCA, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, ASII, SMRA, CTRA, GOTO, CMRY, ACES, SIDO and KLBF. We have an end-25 target of 8,200 for the JCI. TRADERS’ CORNER Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ): Technical BUY Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ): Technical BUY
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
SMRA PT SUMMARECON AGUNG TBK
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
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