Six Directors at Bank Central Asia Tbk PT bought 2,441,801 shares at 6,982.000IDR. The significance rating of the trade was 62/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last ...
Sector Update | Banking We downgrade the Indonesian banking sector to MARKET WEIGHT as rising sovereign risk premiums and fiscal uncertainty increase macro volatility and cap near-term sector re-rating. While the direct earnings impact from higher bond yields remains limited, second-order risk, rupiah pressure and a shorter BI easing cycle, could weigh on NIM, credit growth, and asset quality. Kopdes loans introduce structural NIM pressure, with BBNI most exposed. Valuations stand at 1.67x P/B, ...
Sector Update | Banking We downgrade the Indonesian banking sector to MARKET WEIGHT as rising sovereign risk premiums and fiscal uncertainty increase macro volatility and cap near-term sector re-rating. While the direct earnings impact from higher bond yields remains limited, second-order risk, rupiah pressure and a shorter BI easing cycle, could weigh on NIM, credit growth, and asset quality. Kopdes loans introduce structural NIM pressure, with BBNI most exposed. Valuations stand at 1.67x P/B, ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in February, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 2.8% mom and 5.6% mom, respectively. March is expected to be volatile, as there are signs that the Middle East conflict could last for a while. We focus on names which have greater domestic exposure, adding Anta, China Duty Free, FII, Futu, Kuaishou and Tencent to our BUY list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: Rotating To Commodities Amid M...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebalancing Our portfolio outperformed the JCI by 10.2%. January volatility hit the JCI after MSCI flagged free float transparency and investability risks, reversing record highs into foreign-led sell-offs and a late-month correction. In response, regulators are shifting from short-term stabilisation toward structural repair, with greater emphasis on transparency and investability. The strategy pivots towards liquid and dividend-paying blu...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Economics | Indonesia Headline Inflation Rises On Low-base Effect, Core Inflation Remains Stable Indonesia's headline inflation rose to 3.55% yoy in Jan 26, primarily driven by temporary base effects from last year's low electricity tariffs and high global gold prices. However, core inflation remained stable at 2.45%, and prices fell mom due to a strong food harvest. This indicates underlying demand pressures are still contained. Consequently, Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain its benchmark...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Highlights • JCI declined by -7.2% over the past three trading days after the freeze on ...
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
Strategy | Positive Sentiment On LQ45 Following MSCI’s freeze on index inclusions and deletions, the government plans to raise equity investment limits for pension funds and insurance companies from 8% to 20%, broadly in line with OECD practices. Investment allocation is expected to focus on LQ45 constituents. For context, the LQ45 index has underperformed the JCI by approximately 16.0% over the past year. Company Results | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp540/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA delivered in-line ...
Company Results | Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp7,025/Target: Rp10,100) BBCA delivered in-line results, reinforcing earnings resilience despite a yield decline and higher write-offs. Performance remains anchored by a dominant funding franchise, with CASA at 84.6% and very high liquidity (LCR: 310.8%), alongside sound asset quality and strong cost discipline. However, near-term share price pressure may persist due to MSCI uncertainty and weaker country sentiment, as foreign ownership remains h...
Sector Update | Banking 11M25 results confirm that FY25 earnings are broadly in line, but the sector’s earnings framework has shifted. All major banks saw declines in NIMs and asset yields and moderating core profitability, reflecting a broader normalisation in earnings drivers. As liquidity conditions improve, the sector moves into 2026 with earnings more dependent on loan growth delivery, funding mix optimisation, and operating execution. Highlights • 11M25 broadly in line; but earnings compo...
Sector Update | Banking 11M25 results confirm that FY25 earnings are broadly in line, but the sector’s earnings framework has shifted. All major banks saw declines in NIMs and asset yields and moderating core profitability, reflecting a broader normalisation in earnings drivers. As liquidity conditions improve, the sector moves into 2026 with earnings more dependent on loan growth delivery, funding mix optimisation, and operating execution. Technical Analysis AKR Corporindo | AKRA IJ Trading Bu...
Sector Update | Banking Indonesia’s banking sector enters 2026 in a normalisation phase, with liquidity improving and funding costs easing, leaving system liquidity more manageable. Achieving BI’s 8-12% loan growth target hinges on a broader corporate and MSME recovery. Meanwhile, with NIM expected to be stable to mildly softer and credit costs near structural floors for some banks, the key differentiator shifts to deployable liquidity and credit-cost resilience across banks. Valuations remain r...
Sector Update | Banking Indonesia’s banking sector enters 2026 in a normalisation phase, with liquidity improving and funding costs easing, leaving system liquidity more manageable. Achieving BI’s 8-12% loan growth target hinges on a broader corporate and MSME recovery. Meanwhile, with NIM expected to be stable to mildly softer and credit costs near structural floors for some banks, the key differentiator shifts to deployable liquidity and credit-cost resilience across banks. Valuations remain r...
Strategy | Liquidity Tailwinds And Flow Momentum Drive JCI Upside Equity markets are supported by renewed foreign inflows, rising commodity prices, and improving liquidity. Net equity inflows turned positive at US$169.6m over the past one month, while key commodities posted strong gains. Narrowing yield spreads (10-year bond yield minus LQ45 dividend yield) and improving money supply growth reinforce a preference for equity over bonds. Greater intervention by Bank Indonesia to support the rupiah...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand remained under pressure in Jan 26, with both new-home sales and secondary-home transactions continuing to post sharp yoy declines. Land market activity weakened notably toward the end of 2025, while capital and demand were further concentrated in a small number of strong Tier 1-2 cities, underscoring persistent divergence across regions amid still-soft market sentiment. We remain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector, and expect high polic...
Strategy | Liquidity Tailwinds And Flow Momentum Drive JCI Upside Equity markets are supported by renewed foreign inflows, rising commodity prices, and improving liquidity. Net equity inflows turned positive at US$169.6m over the past one month, while key commodities posted strong gains. Narrowing yield spreads (10-year bond yield minus LQ45 dividend yield) and improving money supply growth reinforce a preference for equity over bonds. Greater intervention by Bank Indonesia to support the rupiah...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
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