Greater China Sector Update | Healthcare The HSHCI rose 11.3%, significantly outperforming the HSI which gained 1.9% from 13 Mar-15 Apr 26. We attribute the healthcare sector’s strong performance primarily to robust 2025 financial results. As a rising pillar industry, biopharmaceuticals have gained strong policy backing to drive future growth and development. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Sector Update | IT Hardware Handset suppliers’ 2H25 results and 2026 guidance are better than feared. Players...
Company Update | Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ/BUY/Rp6,800/Target: Rp7,600) INCO is entering a strong growth phase, driven by new projects at Bahadopi, Pomalaa, and Sorowako that will significantly boost ore volumes. Earnings are expected to surge in 2026 on higher nickel prices, improved payability, and ore sales. Despite near-term cost pressures, limonite monetisation and downstream expansion provide strong long-term upside. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Rp7,600. Highlights • INCO’s ou...
Company Update | Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ/BUY/Rp6,800/Target: Rp7,600) INCO is entering a strong growth phase, driven by new projects at Bahadopi, Pomalaa, and Sorowako that will significantly boost ore volumes. Earnings are expected to surge in 2026 on higher nickel prices, improved payability, and ore sales. Despite near-term cost pressures, limonite monetisation and downstream expansion provide strong long-term upside. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Rp7,600. Technical Analysis Ala...
Greater China Economics | China Investors expect the NPC to set a 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, with policy support led primarily by fiscal measures while monetary easing remains complementary. The official deficit is likely capped at 4%, though augmented fiscal expansion via special bond issuance will provide additional support. The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to prioritise hard-tech self-reliance, advanced manufacturing and curbing industrial involution, with only target...
Sector Update | Mining Indonesia’s proposed quota cut supports nickel prices, though a potential July revision could ease supply in 2H26. Realised output remains the key swing factor. Integrated players offer stronger earnings leverage to nickel prices and are better positioned amid potential quota tightening. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with HRUM as our top pick given its lagging valuation and capacity growth. Highlights • Policy uncertainty creates 2H26 supply ease. The proposed 2026 quota cut to...
Sector Update | Mining Indonesia’s proposed quota cut supports nickel prices, though a potential July revision could ease supply in 2H26. Realised output remains the key swing factor. Integrated players offer stronger earnings leverage to nickel prices and are better positioned amid potential quota tightening. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with HRUM as our top pick given its lagging valuation and capacity growth. Technical Analysis Soechi Lines | SOCI IJ Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at ...
Greater China Sector Update | Healthcare The sector experienced a fruitful year of innovation in 2025, and we expect globalisation and improving operating efficiency to continue to drive rapid earnings growth for drug innovators and CRO leaders from 2026 onwards. Seeing strong online demand, internet healthcare players are likely to sustain solid revenue and earnings expansion in 2026. We also anticipate that domestic medical device manufacturers will experience a gradual sales growth recove...
Sector Update | Mining Nickel prices rebounded above US$18,000/tonne on proposed 2026 RKAB quota cuts and approval delays, though sustainability remains uncertain without consistent supply discipline. Integrated players will benefit the most due to captive smelters and higher earnings sensitivity. Despite the near-term surplus, balances will tighten towards 2029. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; HRUM is our top pick, with ANTM advantaged as an SoE. Highlights • Nickel prices rebounded but sustainability...
Sector Update | Mining Nickel prices rebounded above US$18,000/tonne on proposed 2026 RKAB quota cuts and approval delays, though sustainability remains uncertain without consistent supply discipline. Integrated players will benefit the most due to captive smelters and higher earnings sensitivity. Despite the near-term surplus, balances will tighten towards 2029. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; HRUM is our top pick, with ANTM advantaged as an SoE. Technical Analysis Perusahaan Gas Negara | PGAS IJ Trad...
Greater China Small/Mid Cap Highlights | Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK/BUY/HK$5.90/Target: HK$7.60) We held a pre-blackout call with Plover Bay. In 2H25, growth momentum continued across all markets and management saw growing demand from new verticals. Meanwhile, subscription take-up rates continued to improve on enhanced software features and organic growth. Plover Bay has seen strengthened brand awareness for its Peplink routers since its collaboration with Starlink in Jan 24, and will cont...
Company Update | Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ/BUY/Rp3,890/Target: Rp5,200) INCO is set for strong growth with its Bahodopi, Pomalaa, and Sorowako mines boosting saprolite production to 12.9m wmt and limonite output to 30m wmt by 2027. We forecast 2026 earnings of US$181m on better matte payability, and higher sales volumes. A 12-year exploration plan targets a 2.5x resource expansion. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of Rp5,200. Highlights • INCO’s output will rise as the Bahodopi mine starts...
Economics | Indonesia's Forex Reserves Rise Amid Stabilising Signals And Global Crosscurrents Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves rose to US$150.1b in Nov 25, driven by forex bond issuances and net equity inflows. Bank Indonesia faces a policy dilemma, balancing growth-focused monetary easing against the need to stabilise the rupiah. The outlook depends on conflicting global forces: potential Fed rate cuts could provide relief, while risks from Japan's monetary policy and geopolitical tensions...
GREATER CHINA Results Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (002709 CH/BUY/Rmb17.19/Target: Rmb39.60) 1Q25: Earnings beat on revenue; raise target price from Rmb18.00 to Rmb39.60. Upgrade to BUY. New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$43.38/Target: US$60.00) 3QFY25: Earnings miss; subdued top-line but solid margin outlook in 4QFY25. Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (1833 HK/BUY/HK$7.15/Target:HK$11.00) 1Q25: Results beat; maintains double-digit revenue growth target for...
We believe the domestic royalty hike risk has been largely priced in by the market. While we conservatively project a 2.9% yoy earnings decline in 2025 due to lower nickel prices and higher royalty costs, INCO’s medium-term growth outlook remains intact, underpinned by new mines coming online from late-25 through to 2026. Given the recent sharp share price correction, we upgrade INCO to BUY with a lower target price of Rp3,000, implying 6.9x 2025F EV/EBITDA.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales up 16% yoy last week, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao and Desay. INDONESIA Update Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ/HOLD/Rp3,640/Target: Rp3,800) Unlocking its true potential. MALAYSIA Sector Consumer Sector is trading at -1SD to it...
INCO’s 2025 growth will be driven by initial saprolite ore sales of 1.2m-1.3m wmt from Bahadopi and Pomalaa, alongside slightly higher LME nickel prices of US$17,300 (+1.7% yoy). Earnings are expected to grow 18% yoy to US$73m, supported by higher EBIT but tempered by increased interest costs from US$700m capex. Maintain HOLD with a target price of Rp3,800, based on 7.4x forward 2025 EV/EBITDA, or five-year average EV/EBITDA.
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Surprising beat on exports. Sector Automobile Weekly: Trump’s tariff to reshape China automobile supply chain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. Results Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$36.35/Target: HK$46.00) 3Q24: EBITDA decline due to higher reinvestmen...
We expect the impact on Indo-US export flows to be manageable as a 10-20% tariff is unlikely to compensate for the US’ high labour cost. The risk may come from Indo-China trade as a sizeable amount of exports to China are commodities. We focus on sectors likely to benefit from domestic policies − banks, auto, property, technology and consumer − while reducing positions in commodities. Our BUYS: BBNI, BBRI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, CMRY, ACES, GOTO and ASII. Trim: ADRO, ITMG and INCO.
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