reports
- Clement Genelot
Jeronimo Martins: Polish recovery may take a bit longer
Post-FY 2024, we have cut our FY 2025 estimates to reflect a lengthier LfL and profitability recovery in Poland and maintained our EUR21 PT. However, we do not see any fundamental red flag that would put our recent Buy investment case at risk. We continue to foresee a gradual path to renewed LfL gr
- Jerôme Bodin
- Jerôme Bodin
- Juan Ros-Padilla
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PL Banks; SIPCHEM AB; TL Macro; KAP LI; JMT PL; ALR PW; PC...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: first politician to suggest additional military tax for the banks NEGATIVE • Sipchem: preliminary 4Q24 results, net profit down, on maintenance NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: CBRT tightens policy with surprise corridor hike • Kazatomprom: 4Q24 results – well above the market’s estimates POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: key takeaways from the 4Q24 call NEGATIVE • Alior Bank: CEO Żabski’s interview with Puls Biznesu, ahead of strategic update (due on 25 March) • Sipchem: to mothb...
- Christophe-Raphaël Ganet
- Konrad Zomer
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
APAML APERAM SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SW SODEXO SA
SZG SALZGITTER AG
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
WKL WOLTERS KLUWER NV
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
RWE RWE AG
AIR AIRBUS SE
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
ERA ERAMET SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
NDA AURUBIS AG
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
HLAG HAPAG-LLOYD AG
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
CVC CVC CAPITAL PARTNERS PLC
- Juan Ros-Padilla
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BFT PW; JMT PL; OPAP GA; TPE PW; TL Macro; ALE PW; INPST N...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: pumping iron (stays BUY) • Jeronimo Martins: small beat in 4Q24, Biedronka margin erosion slows down; tough market environment continues in 2025 POSITIVE • OPAP: the beat goes on, in 4Q24 POSITIVE • Tauron: preliminary 4Q24 EBITDA 45% above our estimate, on strong Generation and Distribution, and lower loss in Supply POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: assessment of recent political events • Allegro vs. InPost: our take on the companies' two calls • cyber_Folks / Shoper: key ...
- Clement Genelot
Jeronimo Martins: WCR-driven FCF miss; improved outlook
While FY 2024 EBITDA slightly beat expectations, the massive EUR300m miss on WCR and consequently on FCF is raising question about the structural/one-off aspect of this miss. When trying to interpret Jeronimo Martins' usual qualitative outlook, we feel that the wording has shifted from deflation, m
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: starting 2025 on the right foot
EME Equity Market – January 2025 The markets entered 2025 on the right foot. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in January. The Polish WIG20 was the best performer (+12.7% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX and Czech PX indices (+8.9% mom and +6.2% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). There was also a very solid performance from the Greek ASE Index (+5.4% mom in EUR terms), but more muted performances from the Romanian BET and Turkish ISE 30 indices (+1.6%...
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
CEZ CEZ AS
KRKG KRKA D.D.
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
OMV OMV AG
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
GPP KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
KLKIM GRUPA PRACUJ DA
GIG KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
SHO GAMING INNOVATION GROUP
7203 SHOPER SA
ELM CO
- Jeremy Garnier
- Marc Lavaud
- Youssef Besbes
ETL EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS SA
SESGL SES SA FDR (CLASS A)
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
ADS ADIDAS AG
APAML APERAM SA
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
HO THALES SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
IDL ID LOGISTICS GROUP
SZG SALZGITTER AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
MTU MANITOU BF SA
LSS LECTRA SA
CDA COMPAGNIE DES ALPES SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
ALO ALSTOM SA
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
AIR AIRBUS SE
ERA ERAMET SA
DEZ DEUTZ AG
TUB TUBACEX S.A.
NDA AURUBIS AG
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
LDO LEONARDO SPA
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
SMCP SMCP SA
RBO ROCHE BOBOIS INTERNATIONAL SAS
FAST FASTNED
STM STABILUS SE
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
PLNW PLANISWARE
- Jeremy Garnier
- Marc Lavaud
- Youssef Besbes
ETL EUTELSAT COMMUNICATIONS SA
SESGL SES SA FDR (CLASS A)
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
ADS ADIDAS AG
APAML APERAM SA
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
HO THALES SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
IDL ID LOGISTICS GROUP
SZG SALZGITTER AG
KBC KBC GROUP N.V.
MTU MANITOU BF SA
LSS LECTRA SA
CDA COMPAGNIE DES ALPES SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
ALO ALSTOM SA
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
ORSTED ORSTED
AIR AIRBUS SE
ERA ERAMET SA
DEZ DEUTZ AG
TUB TUBACEX S.A.
NDA AURUBIS AG
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
LDO LEONARDO SPA
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
SMCP SMCP SA
RBO ROCHE BOBOIS INTERNATIONAL SAS
FAST FASTNED
STM STABILUS SE
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
PLNW PLANISWARE
- Juan Ros-Padilla
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ELM AB; TEN PW; WPS LN; PZU PW; CCC PW; JMT PL
HEADLINES: • Elm: signs an agreement to acquire Thiqah for SAR 3.4bn POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: Investor Day takeaways NEUTRAL • Eurowag: solid 4Q24 results but slow growth and higher capex in 2025E NEGATIVE • PZU: appoints Andrzej Klesyk to the supervisory board • CCC: 4Q24E prelims preview - we expect 82% yoy EBITDA growth (due on 10 February, TBC) • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q24E results preview – we expect 2% yoy EBITDA erosion (due on 19 March)
- Oliver Metzger
- Stefano Toffano
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
RNO RENAULT SA
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
WTB WHITBREAD PLC
DAI DAIMLER AG
GIVN GIVAUDAN SA
ADEN ADECCO GROUP AG
SDF K+S AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
GEBN GEBERIT AG
HEN3 HENKEL AG & CO. KGAA PREF
REP REPSOL SA
DEZ DEUTZ AG
AIXA AIXTRON SE
KRN KRONES AG
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
BP. BP P.L.C.
AKZA AKZO NOBEL N.V.
8TRA TRATON SE
SHEL SHELL PLC
STM STABILUS SE
TUI TUI AG
SCHOTT PHARMA AG
- Oliver Metzger
- Stefano Toffano
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
RNO RENAULT SA
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
WTB WHITBREAD PLC
DAI DAIMLER AG
GIVN GIVAUDAN SA
ADEN ADECCO GROUP AG
SDF K+S AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
GEBN GEBERIT AG
HEN3 HENKEL AG & CO. KGAA PREF
REP REPSOL SA
DEZ DEUTZ AG
AIXA AIXTRON SE
KRN KRONES AG
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
BP. BP P.L.C.
AKZA AKZO NOBEL N.V.
8TRA TRATON SE
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
STM STABILUS SE
TUI TUI AG
SCHOTT PHARMA AG
- Juan Ros-Padilla
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: JMT PL; BELA GA; HU Macro; RO Macro; PGSUS TI; RICHT HB
HEADLINES: • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q24 trading statement slightly ahead of our expectations; lfl at Biedronka recovers to +1.1% POSITIVE • Jumbo: top-line growth slows to 2% in December, but still up 6.3% yoy in 2024, as expected NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: inflation jumps, MoF reiterates commitment to fiscal prudence • Romania macro: inflation surprises to the upside again • Pegasus Airlines: strong December traffic POSITIVE • Richter: announces positive top-line results for tocilizumab POSITIVE
- Clement Genelot
Jeronimo Martins: LfL already back to growth
With Q4 returning to LfL growth at both the Biedronka and group levels, Jeronimo Martins topped the css and our expectations. In a still unhelpful albeit easing environment, the scenario behind our upgrade to Buy seems to be taking shape, and we continue to foresee a clear rerating path from 16x to
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
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