reports
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Limited change in EP spending
After reviewing oil companies’ most recent spending plans, we estimate offshore spending growth of c7% YOY for 2024, in line with our November update. Growth is concentrated, with Petrobras being the key driver, favouring service companies with Brazil exposure. Looking ahead, further spending growth is likely to be partly limited by total spending already being on a par with operating cash flow. Delayed energy transition spending is seen as positive for oil services, while recent E&P consolidati...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Large-cap commentary supports long-term offshore upcycle
Key takeaways from SLB, Halliburton and Baker Hughes Q4 earning calls include positive commentary on the ongoing offshore upcycle. They see continued growth in global EP spending in 2024 (high-single to low-doble digits), driven by offshore and international markets, while North America onshore outlook are less favourable. Lastly, SLB sees potential for more than USD100bn in global offshore FIDs in 2024 and 2025, while Baker Hughes expects over 300 subsea tree awards annually for the next 2–3 ye...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Solid medium-term, but mixed long-term signals from Petrobras
As the largest global consumer of deepwater oil services, Petrobras’ strategic plans tend to attract investor attention. We consider its new 5-year plan mixed, but with solid support for near- to medium-term offshore activity from increased and high spending in 2024–2026. On the other hand, 2027–2028 spending looks set to trend down c20% sequentially, despite having been revised higher compared to its previous plan. Total spending is seen up 31% compared to the previous plan, driven by downstrea...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
High dayrates in Petrobras PLSV tender
Bids have been opened for the large Petrobras PLSV tender, with the key takeaway the solid dayrates offered, supporting our view that PLSVs likely will be key earnings contributors in the coming years for companies active in Brazil, namely Subsea7, DOF (via its 50% of DOFCON) and Paratus (via its 50% of Seabras). While it is unclear how many vessels Petrobras will award under this tender, we believe the high dayrates and solid industry discipline are key. For high-spec PLSVs that are mostly offe...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
Aker ASA: 1 director
A director at Aker ASA sold 6,000 shares at 689.320NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 74/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showin...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Offshore spending shifts to 2024
After reviewing oil majors’ and Petrobras’s Q3 reports and spending plans, we see a shift in offshore spending from 2023 to 2024. We now estimate offshore spending growth of c7% YOY for 2024 (c5% in our August update), mainly on delayed Petrobras spending. We expect further growth to be partly limited by total spending already being on a par with operating cash flow. Delayed energy transition spending is seen as positive for oil services, while recent E&P consolidation underpins the oil companie...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Total shows capital discipline and boosts shareholder return
Today, Total announced its strategic update. The main takeaways are no changes to its long-term spending versus 2023 and increased focus on shareholder returns as it boosts its payout ratio. From an oil service perspective, we find it surprising that Namibia was not featured more in the strategic update, as Total has had significant exploration success there. From a development perspective, Suriname is highlighted to see FID in 2024 and first oil in 2028, and we believe this region will be impor...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Focus remains on the out years
Longevity of upcycle is key Our 17th annual spending survey suggests an extended upcycle for offshore-focused oil services. High utilisation, long lead times, and growing backlogs indicate oil service capacity could be tested in subsea and offshore drilling segments. Meanwhile, oil companies are less able to boost spending, with cash flow and capital priorities key. We expect investor focus to shift to 2025. Our top picks are Subsea7, Noble, Seadrill, Odfjell Drilling and Borr Drilling.
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
OTL ODFJELL TECHNOLOGY LTD
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Takeaways from Houston
We spent the week in Houston, meeting management from several E&P and service companies (onshore and offshore). We remain firm in our belief that the outlook for offshore looks solid and that nothing has changed with regards to future activity despite the recent oil price weakening. Conversely, we believe the oil price decline has to a greater degree challenged economics for (private) US onshore companies, resulting in lower activity levels. Adding well productivity deterioration to the equation...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Bay du Nord development said to have been postponed
According to local media reports, Equinor has delayed its Bay du Nord development by up to three years. There are limited details available, but according to the news reports it referenced rising costs. The project, which we consider to be a complex development in remote harsh environments, has been delayed before as well. We had expected to see FID in 2024, with most of the work for oil services taking place from 2026 onwards. No meaningful contracts have been awarded to the oil service industr...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Thoughts around project sanctioning at USD70 oil
With Brent oil prices trading close to USD70/bbl, we sense investor focus shifting to the risk of upcoming field developments being delayed or cancelled, potentially resulting in a soft read-across for oil services. On the positive side for project sanctioning, we stress that oil prices are coming down from an elevated level, being well above oil companies’ planning/breakeven prices. Thus, the two prices are now becoming aligned, supporting a limited negative impact on project sanctioning. On th...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
BP cutting oil & gas production at a slower pace
Being among the more vocal companies on the energy transition, BP’s Q4 update today contained several supportive comments for the future of oil & gas, which we consider positive for oil services. Key items relate to a slower reduction of its oil & gas production and more capital allocated to oil & gas investments. It expects to spend c10% more on oil & gas in 2024–2030 than previous plans, which we believe implies flattish oil & gas spending versus the actual 2022 level of USD10bn (it had previo...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
SDNS SHELF DRILLING NORTH SEA
DDRIL DOLPHIN DRILLING
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
FPSOs could become a deepwater bottleneck
Two key greenfield developments have been delayed/ cancelled in recent months, partly due to FPSO-related issues. Given limited yard capacity and value-chain constraints, we could see a scenario in which FPSO construction becomes an industry bottleneck – with a knock-on effect on demand for other services (subsea and deepwater drilling), in turn likely resulting in lower peak demand, although potentially extending the cycle.
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Limited, if any, offshore spending growth planned by US majors
Chevron’s and Exxon’s 2023 budgets indicate headline spending growth of 25% and 9% YOY, respectively. While the spending splits across segments are difficult to assess, our best-effort breakdown suggests flattish offshore spending for both Chevron and Exxon in 2023e. For Chevron, the solid 2023e headline growth in total spending appears to be driven by a combination of lower-than-expected 2022 spending and strong growth in US onshore, while we estimate that its offshore spending is set to be fla...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Encouraging near-term, but mind the Petrobras cliff
In its updated strategic plan published today, Petrobras increased its E&P spending budget for 2023–2027 to USD64bn, up 12% from last year’s plan and bringing spending back to pre-pandemic levels, largely in line with expectations. Exploration is flat, while growth is focused on production spending. The report is particularly encouraging for oil services demand over the next three years with E&P spending revised up 16–20% in 2024–2025 compared to last year’s plan. Beyond the strong headline figu...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Ahead of Petrobras’ 5-year plan
Being the largest consumer of deepwater-related oil services and having c20% of all deepwater rigs on contract, Petrobras’ 5-year spending plans tend to attract decent attention in the capital markets. Local updates suggest the plan is due tomorrow (30 November) and a c15% increase in E&P spending, while overall spending changes (including downstream) are not quantified. The plan is expected to include six new FPSOs, providing the key driver for offshore drilling and subsea. As a change of gover...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Another sanctioning setback
Shell has notified FPSO contractor BW Offshore that it will not take an FID on the Gato do Mato project offshore Brazil within the next 12–24 months. Gato de Mato is one of the key deepwater developments set for an FID in 2023, with planned production in 2026. Shell did not comment on the reason for the delay, but we believe it relates to cost inflation and supply-chain issues. BW Offshore was performing early works on the FPSO with the intention to undertake the full FPSO project upon the FID. ...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Offshore spending
shifted into 2023 After reviewing oil majors’ and independents’ Q3 reports and spending plans, we are seeing a shift in offshore spending from 2022 to 2023. Hence, we now estimate YOY offshore spending growth of c9% in 2023, versus 5% in our last update from August. 2022e growth is revised lower to c17% (c20%). This is mainly explained by Equinor shifting spending to next year, while keeping the total unchanged, boosting the percentage growth in 2023. Also, some majors have increased their 2023...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Wisting impact on oil services
Equinor’s postponement of the Wisting project due to an over-50% cost increase is having negative impacts on oil services in Norway, mainly from 2024/2025 onwards as the project was targeting first oil in 2028. We believe Aker Solutions is most affected by the failed FID as it was in an exclusive position for a NOK8–12bn topside contract and we believe the loss of this contract will result in 10–15% negative consensus EBITDA revisions for 2024–2025 for the Aker Solutions ‘stub’. The company was ...
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
DO DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING INC.
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
CGG CGG
AWDR AWILCO DRILLING
DRLCO DRILLING COMPANY OF 1972
BORR BORR DRILLING
MSEIS MAGSEIS FAIRFIELD
PRS PROSAFE
NODL NORTHERN DRILLING
SHLF SHELF DRILLING LTD.
VAL VALARIS LTD
NE NOBLE CORP NEW
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