After a series of negative earnings surprises, the Q1 results exceeded our expectations, mainly on progress in the key Consumer Packaging division. In addition, we found it reassuring that management reiterated that the forestry asset sale is ongoing, with completion expected before end-H1. We have made limited forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and EUR12 target price.
Reflecting escalating general macro uncertainty leading to softer prices for most of Stora Enso’s industries and FX headwinds (weaker USD and stronger SEK), we have reduced our 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA by 6% per year. Despite this, we still find the valuation discount too high, especially since we believe Stora Enso’s explicit plan of selling 12% of its Swedish forestland could be a potential positive catalyst. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to EUR12 (13).
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