reports
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Henrik Bartnes
- Martin Melbye
SCA B SVENSKA CELLULOSA AKTIEBOLAGET CLASS B
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
HUH1V HUHTAMAKI OYJ
RROS ROTTNEROS AB
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
ATC ARCTIC PAPER SA
BRG BORREGAARD
HOLM B HOLMEN AB CLASS B
NPAPER NORDIC PAPER HOLDING
ELO ELOPAK ASA
BRG.B-SE BERGS TIMBER
NSKOG NORSKE SKOG ASA
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Henrik Bartnes
- Martin Melbye
- Johannes Grunselius
Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR12.00) - Reassuring Q1
After a series of negative earnings surprises, the Q1 results exceeded our expectations, mainly on progress in the key Consumer Packaging division. In addition, we found it reassuring that management reiterated that the forestry asset sale is ongoing, with completion expected before end-H1. We have made limited forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and EUR12 target price.
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Henrik Bartnes
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- Johannes Grunselius
Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR12.00) - Headwinds versus intrinsic values
Reflecting escalating general macro uncertainty leading to softer prices for most of Stora Enso’s industries and FX headwinds (weaker USD and stronger SEK), we have reduced our 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA by 6% per year. Despite this, we still find the valuation discount too high, especially since we believe Stora Enso’s explicit plan of selling 12% of its Swedish forestland could be a potential positive catalyst. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to EUR12 (13).
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- Mattias Holmberg
Who stands to benefit?
A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...
UPM UPM-KYMMENE OYJ
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
FLS FLSMIDTH & CO. A/S
KEMIRA KEMIRA OYJ
ROCK B ROCKWOOL INTERNATIONAL A/S CLASS B
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
KCR KONECRANES OYJ
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
KALMAR KALMAR
- Johannes Grunselius
Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR13.00) - Value story with a potential catalyst
Due to surprisingly weak Q4 earnings for the packaging materials division and overall muted outlook comments for all of Stora Enso’s industries, we were disappointed by the Q4 results that have prompted us to reduce our 2025–2026e EBIT by 19–6%. Despite this, we still find the valuation discount too high, especially as the company looks set to sell 12% of its Swedish forestland at a premium to book value. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to EUR13 (14).
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- Johannes Grunselius
Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR14.00) - Market bearish and a likely catalyst
Reflecting slightly softer prices for packaging and pulp and a somewhat postponed market recovery across Stora Enso’s industries, we have reduced our 2024–2025e adj. EBIT by 6–20%. Despite this, we still find the valuation discount too high, especially as the company looks set to sell 12% of its Swedish forestland at a premium to book value. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to EUR14 (16).
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
- ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Martin Melbye
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