Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR14.00) - Market bearish and a likely catalyst

Reflecting slightly softer prices for packaging and pulp and a somewhat postponed market recovery across Stora Enso’s industries, we have reduced our 2024–2025e adj. EBIT by 6–20%. Despite this, we still find the valuation discount too high, especially as the company looks set to sell 12% of its Swedish forestland at a premium to book value. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to EUR14 (16).

November: Pulp shipments -4% y-o-y

CO2 allowances - easy come, easy go

September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Stora acquires a Finnish sawmill company

Having its cake and eating it too

Q3 EBIT 11% below

Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR17.00) - All eyes on potential forest sales

We have cut our 2024e EBITDA by c9% on lower price assumptions for pulp, but our 2025–2026e is largely unchanged. Given the economic significance of the decision to divest 12% of the Swedish forestland, the outcome should overshadow the usual businesses. Due to three key reasons, we believe Stora Enso should be able to sell its forestland at book value or at a premium, which would crystallise significant values and be supportive of the stock. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price...

Wood is up and Pulp is down

Q3 preview

August: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

July: Pulp shipments -4.0% y-o-y

June: Pulp shipments -4.5% y-o-y

Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR16.50) - Improvements confirmed

With continuous earnings improvement in Q2 and a firm confirmation that the order backlog for the vital packing materials division is strong, we believe the risk in the company’s earnings outlook has eased after the Q2 report and the investment case has strengthened. We have tweaked our 2024–2027 forecasts and reiterate our BUY and EUR16.5 target price.

Wood and maintenance, again

Q2 clean EBIT +5%, watch out for wood/maintenance in H2e. Costs push prices higher. Mid-cycle value of EUR +18/sh.

Q2 clean EBIT +5%

Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR16.50) - Moving in the right direction

We have made relatively small positive revisions to our 2024–2026e. Based on strong market fundamentals, we believe the Pulp division will remain a strong earnings contributor at the same time as better volumes and prices in the Packing division will continue to drive earnings growth for the group. We also see cost-cutting contributing to earnings growth, while a sale of the Chinese business could reveal hidden value. We reiterate our BUY and EUR16.5 target price.

Liquid packaging board just got a bit more risky

June: Pulp shipments flat y-o-y

Costs push prices higher

A long list of price increases as costs push prices higher. Q2e EBIT likely down q-o-q: higher maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low.