EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: 4Q23 profits largely in line; 2024E guidance assumes continuation of profits, but ROE is likely start to normalise • Alpha Bank: 4Q23 highlights • Eurobank: 4Q23 highlights • Fondul Proprietatea: Court of Appeal admits Fund’s request to annul share capital increase decision at Bucharest Airports POSITIVE • Arcelik: CMA approves Arcelik-Whirlpool Deal POSITIVE • DataWalk: key takeaways from the preliminary 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23E results preview ...
HEADLINES: • Telecom Egypt: 4Q23 results review – EBITDA up 24% yoy, 7% below the consensus NEUTRAL • Arcelik: weak operating performance in 4Q23 results NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (26 February-3 March) • 4iG: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Purcari Wineries: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: February bookings estimate at USD 13m, up 5% mom POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: February total bookings estimate flat mom, but further declines in ...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 2023 traffic; what's next, after a stellar year? • CCC: 4Q prelims short of guidance, due to major sell-down at Modivo; margins back to pre COVID-19 in core business NEGATIVE • Turkey macro: inflation report presents a solid, relatively hawkish, framework for disinflation • Czech Republic macro: CNB steps up the easing cycle • Fondul Proprietatea: Ministry of Finance might oppose sale of stake in Engie and the buyback programme NEGATIVE • Verbund: releases warning...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Orlen: it'll be great when it's finished (stays BUY) • Santander Bank Polska: books solid profitability in 3Q23 • Yapi Kredi: 3Q23 highlights - better than expected, on the back of core revenues • Eurowag: 3Q23 revenues +33% yoy, FY23E margin guidance reconfirmed • Sipchem: 3Q23 results • Hungary macro: MNB cuts by 75bps, as expected • Polish banks: ZBP estimates cost of credit holidays extension at PLN 4.7-6.4bn • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUT...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (16-22 October) • Kalekim: 3Q23 - strong set of results, but failed to meet expectations NEGATIVE • Arcelik: 3Q23 results - in line NEUTRAL • Enea: sees PLN 264m maximum impact from cut in retail tariff NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: ICCJ rejects revision of Volksbank case • TeraPlast: 3Q23E earnings preview (due out tomorrow) • Ford Otosan: 3Q23E earnings preview (due on 25 October) • Tofas: 3Q23E earnings preview (due on 25 October) • Tupra...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: where we stand - Polish elections and the global context • Poland macro: vote counting almost over • Shoper: agreement with home.pl transferring c.3k merchants to Shoper platform (GMV of c.PLN 1bn) POSITIVE • Arcelik: 3Q23E earnings preview (due on 20 October) NEUTRAL • Short News (PL Telecoms)
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
We reinitiate coverage of Arcelik with a BUY rating and a 12M price target (PT) of TRY 207.5. We believe the revenue growth trajectory in its core markets, and the operational efficiencies to be exploited from Whirlpool deal, should remain the key pillars of the Arcelik investment case. We anticipate strong growth in its key financial metrics in 2024E, as Whirlpool’s European and MENA operations are consolidated. We believe that Arcelik is being mispriced by the market: on a 5.3x 2024E EV/EBITDA...
Spreads have been whipsawed by the volatility in core rates recently, but little has changed in the underlying picture for EM credit markets. We would still prefer to be fairly defensively positioned, with expectations for a likely uptick in issuance in September along with some risks on the macro front if expectations shift more definitively towards further rate hikes or significant recession concerns resurface.
HEADLINES: • Isbank: 2Q23 highlights - subsidiary profits boom • Coca-Cola Icecek: 2Q23 - better than expected results POSITIVE • Brisa: 2Q23 EBITDA margin up to 22%, volumes fall 8% yoy on exports • Romania macro: NBR holds the policy rate unchanged • Lamda Development: rundown of key value drivers (highlights from the CMD) POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: 2Q23 preliminary net profit reaches PLN 120m, 3% above the consensus POSITIVE • CEZ: State reportedly seeking to acquire gas network operators N...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
With the key central bank meetings out of the way without any major hiccups, we expect the summer lull to start to set in for EM credit markets. However, with spread levels looking tight, investors will be on the lookout for further signs of intrenched inflation or weakness in the global economy, along with expectations for an uptick in supply from September.
Arcelik's 2Q results display improved profitability, but the bottom line fell short of expectations, and the outlook continues to be challenging. Despite a strong performance in the first half, domestic volumes are expected to face pressure as the higher volumes in that period were boosted by demand pull forward, and consumers' purchasing power is now under strain. In addition, international sales are predicted to remain sluggish. With this note, we revised our TP from TL128 to TL168 per share. ...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: 2Q23 results - in line operationally, but bottom line misses expectations NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (17-23 July) • Kruk: buys another portfolio in Spain POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: acquires naEKRANIE.pl website and 4FUN channels NEUTRAL • TeraPlast: 2Q23E earnings preview (due out tomorrow) • Tofas: 2Q23E earnings preview (due on 26 July) NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: 2Q23E earnings preview (due on 27 July) NEUTRAL • Migros: 2Q23E earnings preview (due on 2 A...
HEADLINES: • Cyfrowy Polsat: 4Q22 review - soft results, in line with preliminaries and the consensus NEUTRAL • Pepco Group: lfl eases to 9% in 2Q23; FY23E EBITDA guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Arcelik: 1Q23 results - a mixed bag NEUTRAL • CCC: PLN 505m raised from new shares issue POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MPC setting things in motion • VIGO Photonics: key takeaways from the 4Q22 earnings call POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: key takeaways from the 4Q22 earnings call NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: sel...
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