We forecast Q1 EBITDA of NOK732m, 13% below Bloomberg consensus, on lower-than-normal wind speeds. Following the sale of UWL and potentially more flavour on the company’s capital allocation strategy that could include new business areas, we expect focus to be on capital allocation. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK315 (310). The stock looks attractively valued, in our opinion, at a P/NAV of 0.67x.
With the Q4 earnings miss due to lower power production than expected on downtime and curtailments largely outside the company’s control, we believe the main takeaways were solid underlying developments, with: 1) Fred. Olsen Windcarrier (FOWIC) firming up a contract at accretive economics increasing its backlog by 56% QOQ; 2) another onshore wind farm reaching an FID; and 3) a sharpened capital allocation strategy. We reiterate our BUY and NOK310 target price, with the stock looking attractively...
We expect Q4 to be affected by slightly lower wind speeds than normal and two FOWIC vessels at yard. Our Q4e EBITDA is NOK831m, 8% below Bloomberg consensus (due to a lower contribution from Wind Services). With some idle capacity on the FOWIC vessels in 2026–2027, we expect focus to be on future contracting opportunities. We reiterate our BUY and NOK310 target price, and believe the stock is trading attractively at a P/NAV of 0.7x.
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