We forecast Q1 EBITDA of NOK732m, 13% below Bloomberg consensus, on lower-than-normal wind speeds. Following the sale of UWL and potentially more flavour on the company’s capital allocation strategy that could include new business areas, we expect focus to be on capital allocation. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK315 (310). The stock looks attractively valued, in our opinion, at a P/NAV of 0.67x.
With the Q4 earnings miss due to lower power production than expected on downtime and curtailments largely outside the company’s control, we believe the main takeaways were solid underlying developments, with: 1) Fred. Olsen Windcarrier (FOWIC) firming up a contract at accretive economics increasing its backlog by 56% QOQ; 2) another onshore wind farm reaching an FID; and 3) a sharpened capital allocation strategy. We reiterate our BUY and NOK310 target price, with the stock looking attractively...
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