Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK390.00) - Balance sheet risk still in focus

Ørsted reported underlying results on the downside and further construction issues in the US. The reversal of cancellation fees and deferred capex helps near-term liquidity, but we still believe significant asset sales are needed to fix its balance sheet. We reiterate our DKK390 target price and have upgraded the stock to HOLD (SELL), as it is valued on a par with existing business and visible growth. However, we see uncertainty in the US and a weak balance sheet to continue to weigh on the stoc...

Renewable Weekly – 11 November 2024

Cloudberry (Buy, TP: NOK13.00) - Backlog progressing as planned

The underlying Q3 results were slightly better than we expected on higher realised power prices and lower opex. Maturing its backlog seems to be progressing well, with a storage project and the Nees Hede solar project looking set for FID over the next quarters. We believe Cloudberry is fully funded for this and that future growth is likely to be partially financed by asset rotation. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and maintain our NOK13 target price.

Scatec (Hold, TP: NOK86.00) - Setting its priorities straight

We like the sharpened investment strategy up to 2027 with keener focus on core technologies and markets, and we welcome the attention on deleveraging, but we believe more than the low end of divestment proceeds is needed to fix the balance sheet. With more EPC scope from core technologies and an outlook for higher margins, we believe the market could start to assign a higher value to D&C. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK86 (80) on increased D&C estimates.

Renewable Weekly – 1 November 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK310.00) - Another solid quarter

The Q3 results surprised on the upside, driven by higher realised power prices in Renewable Energy and a greater contribution from Wind Service. We have raised our 2024e EBITDA by 4% on the strong Q3 results, and 2025e by 12% on the new FOWIC vessel reservation agreement and expected further rebound in the cruise market. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK310 (300), seeing the stock trading attractively at 0.8x P/NAV, below other renewable energy names.

Going higher

Renewable Weekly – 25 October 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Q3 first take: another big beat

Scatec (Hold, TP: NOK80.00) - HOLDing on for divestments

We are 1% below company-compiled consensus on Q3e proportional EBITDA from underlying operations, and expect focus with the report to be on Scatec’s divestment programme, where we believe there is much more to come. We reiterate our NOK80 target price, but have upgraded to HOLD (SELL) as the stock is now trading in line with our SOTP; we believe prices secured for asset sales will be key for the near-term share price performance.

Cloudberry (Hold, TP: NOK13.00) - Near-term headwinds

We expect Q3 to be soft, hampered by muted power production on lower-than-normal wind speeds and a somewhat slower-than-expected ramp-up of production at Odal. Combined with lower GoOs, we have thus cut our 2024–2026e proportionate EBITDA by 12-4%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised out target price to NOK13 (12), reflecting operational assets and near-term growth, and believe further crystallisation of the underlying values in its development organisation and project pipeline through e.g. a...

Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK300.00) - Slightly below consensus for Q3e

We forecast Q3 EBITDA of NOK740m, 5% below Bloomberg consensus on lower contributions from Renewable Energy and Wind Service, with lower wind speeds than normal and some idle vessel capacity towards the end of the quarter. We reiterate our BUY, but have raised our target price to NOK300 (275) after adding two new onshore wind projects to our NAV and increasing the contribution from FOWIC slightly.

Renewable Weekly – 17 October 2024

This week, we summarise our Q3 previews for the sector.

Ørsted (Sell, TP: DKK390.00) - Awaiting divestments

With a stretched balance sheet, Ørsted’s equity story is increasingly about the asset divestments needed to maintain its credit rating without raising equity. Hence, we believe the prospects for near-term disposals will be the key point of focus in the upcoming Q3 report. Although we see low risk to the “under construction” portfolio after several rounds of impairments, there are still wider industry issues, with too-high costs and a stretched value chain. We reiterate our DKK390 target price, b...

Energy Morning - 11 October 2024

Renewable Weekly – 8 Oct 2024

This week, we highlight the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate updated LCOE estimates.

The value case stands

Renewable Weekly – 24 Sept 2024

Renewable Weekly – 13 Sept 2024

On aggregate, the R&C stocks underperformed (equal weight) the MSCI Nordic by ~1% throughout the reporting season (10 July to today).

Renewable Weekly – 4 Sep 2024

A soft week for renewables: of our basket of 38 stocks, returns were positive for 10 and negative for 28 on the week.