Scatec (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - Progressing as planned

We consider Scatec’s Q1 report a solid status report, showing that the equity story is evolving as planned with: 1) asset sales reducing net debt on a corporate level; and 2) significant scale on growth through 2027e, with ~NOK16bn in remaining EPC revenues to be recognised from projects under construction and in the company’s backlog. The stock is trading at around our core NAV, suggesting that investors are currently getting unannounced growth at no cost. We reiterate our BUY and have raised o...

Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK315.00) - Below consensus on Q1e EBITDA

We forecast Q1 EBITDA of NOK732m, 13% below Bloomberg consensus, on lower-than-normal wind speeds. Following the sale of UWL and potentially more flavour on the company’s capital allocation strategy that could include new business areas, we expect focus to be on capital allocation. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK315 (310). The stock looks attractively valued, in our opinion, at a P/NAV of 0.67x.

Estimates down on lower power prices

Cloudberry Minor model adjustments

We have updated our Q1 proportionate EBITDA forecast to NOK76m, based on 196GWh quarterly power production. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK13.5 target price. The Q1 report is due at 07:00 CET on 13 May.

Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK310.00) - US regulatory risks still in focus

We forecast Q1 EBITDA excluding new partnerships of DKK8.0bn, largely in line with consensus, with offshore wind speeds below normal. We continue to see headwinds in the US, and expect focus to be on the impact from US tariffs and potential construction halts on the US wind farms under construction, as well as other risks in the country. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK310 target price, and believe uncertainties related to the US operations, farm-down execution, and liquidity need to be resolved fo...

Scatec (Buy, TP: NOK92.00) - Benefiting from scale in growth

We forecast Q1 proportionate EBITDA 17% above consensus, which we believe likely does not fully reflect announced divestment gains. We see the company benefiting from scale in growth in the coming years and have raised our 2025–2026e proportionate EBITDA by 9% on a higher D&C contribution. With Scatec trading at a discount to underlying values, and delivering on growth and its divestment programme, we find it offers a solid investment case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price t...

Energy Morning - 24 March 2025

Energy Morning - 21 March 2025

UWL divestment boosts NAV by ~3-4%

Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK310.00) - Progressing well

With the Q4 earnings miss due to lower power production than expected on downtime and curtailments largely outside the company’s control, we believe the main takeaways were solid underlying developments, with: 1) Fred. Olsen Windcarrier (FOWIC) firming up a contract at accretive economics increasing its backlog by 56% QOQ; 2) another onshore wind farm reaching an FID; and 3) a sharpened capital allocation strategy. We reiterate our BUY and NOK310 target price, with the stock looking attractively...

A bump in the road

Q4: a bit softer than expected

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Cloudberry (Buy, TP: NOK13.50) - Powering forward

Adjusted for NOK113m in gains on intra-company asset sales, Cloudberry reported proportionate Q4 EBITDA of NOK52m, 21% below our estimate and 19% below consensus, largely on lower-than-expected realised power prices. The company’s projects are on track, with construction of the Sundby and Munkhyttan wind parks complete and development of Nees Hede progressing, now as a slightly larger project. We reiterate our BUY and NOK13.5 target price. The stock is trading at an attractive 32% discount to as...

Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK310.00) - Below consensus for Q4e

We expect Q4 to be affected by slightly lower wind speeds than normal and two FOWIC vessels at yard. Our Q4e EBITDA is NOK831m, 8% below Bloomberg consensus (due to a lower contribution from Wind Services). With some idle capacity on the FOWIC vessels in 2026–2027, we expect focus to be on future contracting opportunities. We reiterate our BUY and NOK310 target price, and believe the stock is trading attractively at a P/NAV of 0.7x.

Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK310.00) - Walking a tightrope

Although we welcome the message of disciplined value-focused growth and no equity needed, we do not consider Ørsted to be out of the woods yet, as we still see financial and US-related risks. On our estimates, the lowered capex guidance just about gets the company to the low end of its FFO/NIBD target, leaving limited room for error ahead. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK310 target price, and still struggle to see a meaningful valuation upside despite the stock trading at an 15% discount to our SOT...

Scatec (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Few surprises in Q4

With the Q4 results largely in line with expectations and the mid-point of the 2025 EBITDA guidance 4% below consensus likely due to assumptions about the timing of asset sales and proceeds, we consider Scatec’s Q4 report neutral. We have made limited estimate revisions following the results; we reiterate BUY and have raised our target price to NOK90 (86) based on a higher contribution from ancillary services in the Philippines.

Energy Morning - 30 January 2025

Cloudberry (Buy, TP: NOK13.50) - Power production boost after Skovgaar...

We forecast Q4 proportionate EBITDA of NOK66m, reflecting slightly above-normal precipitation and lower-than-normal wind speeds. We have raised our 2025–2026e proportionate EBITDA by 7–15% on the recently announced Skovgaard acquisition and updated power price estimates. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK13.5 (13) after including Skovgaard. The stock is trading 32% below asset market values, but we still believe further crystallisation of underlying values would be need...

Soft Q4e, but solid value