Renewable Weekly – Q2 reporting wrap

Energy Morning - 9 September 2025

Energy Morning - 2 September 2025

Q2 first take: utilisation not low after all

Lower utilisation

Energy Morning - 26 June 2025

Energy Morning - 12 May 2025

Still confident in Codling

Energy Morning - 9 May 2025

A tad softer, but no major changes

Scatec (Buy, TP: NOK95.00) - Progressing as planned

We consider Scatec’s Q1 report a solid status report, showing that the equity story is evolving as planned with: 1) asset sales reducing net debt on a corporate level; and 2) significant scale on growth through 2027e, with ~NOK16bn in remaining EPC revenues to be recognised from projects under construction and in the company’s backlog. The stock is trading at around our core NAV, suggesting that investors are currently getting unannounced growth at no cost. We reiterate our BUY and have raised o...

Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK315.00) - Below consensus on Q1e EBITDA

We forecast Q1 EBITDA of NOK732m, 13% below Bloomberg consensus, on lower-than-normal wind speeds. Following the sale of UWL and potentially more flavour on the company’s capital allocation strategy that could include new business areas, we expect focus to be on capital allocation. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK315 (310). The stock looks attractively valued, in our opinion, at a P/NAV of 0.67x.

Estimates down on lower power prices

Cloudberry Minor model adjustments

We have updated our Q1 proportionate EBITDA forecast to NOK76m, based on 196GWh quarterly power production. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our NOK13.5 target price. The Q1 report is due at 07:00 CET on 13 May.

Ørsted (Hold, TP: DKK310.00) - US regulatory risks still in focus

We forecast Q1 EBITDA excluding new partnerships of DKK8.0bn, largely in line with consensus, with offshore wind speeds below normal. We continue to see headwinds in the US, and expect focus to be on the impact from US tariffs and potential construction halts on the US wind farms under construction, as well as other risks in the country. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK310 target price, and believe uncertainties related to the US operations, farm-down execution, and liquidity need to be resolved fo...

Scatec (Buy, TP: NOK92.00) - Benefiting from scale in growth

We forecast Q1 proportionate EBITDA 17% above consensus, which we believe likely does not fully reflect announced divestment gains. We see the company benefiting from scale in growth in the coming years and have raised our 2025–2026e proportionate EBITDA by 9% on a higher D&C contribution. With Scatec trading at a discount to underlying values, and delivering on growth and its divestment programme, we find it offers a solid investment case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price t...

Energy Morning - 24 March 2025

Energy Morning - 21 March 2025

UWL divestment boosts NAV by ~3-4%

Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK310.00) - Progressing well

With the Q4 earnings miss due to lower power production than expected on downtime and curtailments largely outside the company’s control, we believe the main takeaways were solid underlying developments, with: 1) Fred. Olsen Windcarrier (FOWIC) firming up a contract at accretive economics increasing its backlog by 56% QOQ; 2) another onshore wind farm reaching an FID; and 3) a sharpened capital allocation strategy. We reiterate our BUY and NOK310 target price, with the stock looking attractively...