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Niklas Wetterling
  • Niklas Wetterling

Castellum (Hold, TP: SEK135.00) - Unconvincing Q1 results

We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and trimmed our target price to SEK135 (136) following rather soft Q1 results that showed a risk in vacancy adding concern about the rental market outlook. We consider the stock fully valued, given only an 10% NAV discount (adjusted for Entra at market value) and its soft FFOPS growth outlook.

Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
  • Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo

Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK275.00) - Limited knock-on effects from the weak ...

Bonheur reported Q1 EBITDA well below expectations (25% below our estimate and 33% below consensus), but we see limited knock-on effects for the rest of the year. Hence, we have lowered our 2024e EBITDA by 5% on the weaker-than-expected Q1 results, and raised our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 2–1% on a weaker NOK. We reiterate our BUY and NOK275 target price, and see the stock trading at an attractive 28% discount to our NAV and a 15% discount to our target price.

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Olof Cederholm
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf

Lowering its sights

Taking down its ambitions with new targets although we appreciate the lowered pay-out ratio. Higher probability of a DPS already for 2024.

ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland

Q1 should be decent

We are 10% above FactSet cons on Q1e EBITDA. Small positive estimate changes on better power prices. Attractive valuation levels: P/Core NAV 0.94x, '24e P/E 16.8x.

ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+8)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Olof Cederholm
  • Stian Wibstad

Renewable Weekly – 29 April 2024

This week, we summarise our Q1 previews for the sector.

Martin Arnell
  • Martin Arnell

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - New growth and nations incoming

Kambi showed steps in the right direction in Q1 after expectations were re-based in conjunction with the Q4 report. We have raised our 2024e EBIT by 5% following the earnings beat in Q1, and find the implicit EBIT guidance of EUR~15m fairly conservative in light of e.g. the upcoming onboarding of Svenska Spel in Sweden and LiveScore in the UK. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK190 (180).

Martin Arnell
  • Martin Arnell

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - New growth and nations incoming

Kambi showed steps in the right direction in Q1 after expectations were re-based in conjunction with the Q4 report. We have raised our 2024e EBIT by 5% following the earnings beat in Q1, and find the implicit EBIT guidance of EUR~15m fairly conservative in light of e.g. the upcoming onboarding of Svenska Spel in Sweden and LiveScore in the UK. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK190 (180).

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

ABGSC Online Gaming Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Online Gaming Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Simon Jönsson
ABGSC Online Gaming Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Online Gaming Research
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Simon Jönsson

Volvo AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at Volvo AB sold/bought 3,450 shares at between 275.000SEK and 279.800SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the...

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

EPBD the big story this week

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...

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