HEADLINES: • Coca-Cola Icecek: keeping the faith (stays BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: Romania - growth ok, loose fiscal stance with attractive yields • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the interview with the CEO NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: acquires 95% stake in El-Kajo for PLN 29m and up to PLN 34m earnout POSITIVE • Electrica: distribution tariffs could rise by c.6% next year NEUTRAL • InPost: EUR 2m shares transferred between Supervisory Board Member and CEO NEUTRAL • PCF Group: CEO comments on strateg...
HEADLINES: • Akcansa: a resilient business model that is hard to ignore (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Wirtualna Polska: 3Q23 results review - adjusted EBITDA up 56% yoy, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • Auto Partner: 3Q23 EBITDA 7-9% above expectations on a better gross margin POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 3Q23 adjusted EBITDA marginally above expectations, weak October for Hunting Clash NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: share buyback of up to PLN 115m to be voted on at the EGM POSITIVE • Ten Squa...
HEADLINES: • GTC: 3Q23 - decides not to pursue Ultima deal POSITIVE • Dom Development: 3Q23 in line, management concerns about the sustainability of subsidised mortgages NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 3Q23 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: 9M23 trading update sees continued growth in footfall and average spend per visit POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: 3Q23 - staying the course, covering ground • Romgaz: 3Q23 conference call takeaways • Patria Bank: 3Q23 results - we...
HEADLINES: • ADNOC Distribution: fuelled by non-fuel (stays BUY) • Allegro: 3Q23 results a notch above expectations; guidance for a strong 4Q23E in Poland POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: better-than-expected 3Q23, solid 2023-24E outlook but also higher capex guidance POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: qoq margin expansion in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Krka: 3Q results normalising, in line with our FY23E outlook NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual 3Q23 numbers fully in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • VIGO Photon...
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: 3Q23 on track for best year ever, 3Q beat on better cost control POSITIVE • AmRest: 3% EBITDA beat in 3Q23 on improving margins POSITIVE • Bank of Georgia: 3Q23 highlights, before the call - good quarter • Hidroelectrica: 3Q23 net profit of RON 1.2bn, 30% higher yoy and 6% above our estimate POSITIVE • Purcari Wineries: 3Q23 net profit 27% higher than our estimate, on higher other income • Conpet: 3Q23 net profit rebounds qoq and stands 9% higher yoy POSITIVE • Tr...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 3Q23 - books another strong quarter • PKO BP: solid 3Q23, announces another attempt to pay 2022 DPS, books 25%+ headline ROE • CEZ: 3Q23 a solid beat; adjusted net profit guidance unchanged, at CZK 33-37bn POSITIVE • InPost: 3Q23 beat on stronger international operations; breakeven in UK; strong start to 4Q POSITIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q23 - another strong summer, guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: 3Q23 results review - soft numbers, in line with expectations NEU...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: 3Q23 results solid as a rock, 25%+ ROE remains, high dividend yield possible POSITIVE • BIM: strong set of results in 3Q23 financials, beating expectations POSITIVE • Richter: 3Q23 EBITDA in line; guidance raised on strong Vraylar POSITIVE • Petkim: 3Q23 results • Eurobank: 3Q23 results • National Bank: 3Q23 results • Addiko Bank: 3Q23 results - bottom-line beat POSITIVE • Transgaz: no approval from EC for EUR 500m grants for non-priority projects NEUTRAL • Auto Par...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Alior Bank: strong beat on headline profit as LLPs keep giving low readings POSITIVE • MONETA Money Bank: strong 3Q23 results, but medium-term outlook broadly unchanged NEUTRAL • Tupras: 3Q23 results - EBITDA better than expected • Ford Otosan: strong beat in 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • Tofas: better-than-expected results in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Shoper: 3Q23 adjusted EBITDA up 32% yoy, as expected NEUTRAL • Romgaz: 3Q23 trading update • Electrica: 3Q23 operational indicators NEUTRAL • M...
HEADLINES: • Purcari Wineries: growth uninterrupted (stays BUY) • Otokar: 3Q23 - strong beat, with accelerated deliveries and improved sales mix POSITIVE • Orange Polska: 3Q23 results - EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Kaspi.kz: 3Q23 highlights - strong quarter, with a boost from the marketplace POSITIVE • TeraPlast: 3Q23 results in line, FY23E EBITDA guidance lowered NEUTRAL • Polish banks: current government preparing draft bill on credit holiday extension into 2024E ...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (16-22 October) • Kalekim: 3Q23 - strong set of results, but failed to meet expectations NEGATIVE • Arcelik: 3Q23 results - in line NEUTRAL • Enea: sees PLN 264m maximum impact from cut in retail tariff NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: ICCJ rejects revision of Volksbank case • TeraPlast: 3Q23E earnings preview (due out tomorrow) • Ford Otosan: 3Q23E earnings preview (due on 25 October) • Tofas: 3Q23E earnings preview (due on 25 October) • Tupra...
Raising 12-month TP to TL172/share; downgrade to Hold: We have incorporated an updated macro deck and revised various assumptions regarding Tupras. Accordingly, we have raised our 12-month TP by 37%, to TL172/share. We downgrade our rating to Hold, given the relatively limited upside potential on our numbers. We continue to value Tupras via blended FY23E/FY24E P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples. We believe that Tupras’ near-term operating outlook could offer support to the shares in the S/T given the r...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • Allegro: 2Q23 results above expectations; guidance for EBITDA acceleration in 3Q23E POSITIVE • Lamda Development: 1H23 - existing malls NOI ahead of our estimates, NAV stable at EUR 7.8/share POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB preparing for the first rate cut • PGE: 2Q23 earnings call takeaways • Pepco Group: another profit warning and management reshuffle NEGATIVE • DIGI Communications: in talks with Macquarie and Abrdn to sell stake in its Spanish fibre network NEUTRAL • OMV P...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • PZU: 2Q23 results stronger than expected, dividend yield due next week POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 2Q23 below our forecasts, in line with consensus; CDR satisfied with PL pre-orders NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: 2Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 10% yoy, 5% above the market consensus POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: 2Q23 - gross profit of EUR 16m, on 28% GPM, FY guidance reiterated • Sphera Group: minor miss in 2Q23 due to high base of post COVID-19 recovery NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: 1...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: a transformation story worth paying for (BUY - reinitiation of coverage) • Turkey macro: CBT surprises with a bold move • Asseco Poland: 2Q23 review - net profit down 13% yoy, 2% above the preliminaries POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: weak 2Q23, slightly above expectations; upward revision of games' production budget NEUTRAL • Budimex: 2Q23 in line with the preliminary figures NEUTRAL • Budimex: may win EUR 3.7bn Rail Baltica contract (BDX's stake at 30%) POSITIVE • Electrica:...
HEADLINES: • Hidroelectrica: green yields (BUY - initiation of coverage) • PKO BP: posts solid 2Q23 results • Orlen: 2Q23 results • CA Immo: 2Q23 - FFO picks up pace qoq, EUR 543m of disposals at 38% premium to book closed ytd POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 2Q23 weakness resulted mostly from FX impact, no fundamental changes in the business POSITIVE • GTC: 2Q23 - recurring in line, books 2% write-down on portfolio, driven mostly by Polish assets NEUTRAL • Purcari Wineries: 21% beat vs. our net profi...
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