The wake-up call of the Munich summit will force European countries to assume full responsibility for their own defence. For the groups in our coverage, this should lead to a 2024-2030e CAGR for the addressable market of 31.5% (baseline scenario) vs 10.5% previously as well as a financial support that should help to improve FCF. We have revised the target prices of defence stocks upward by an average of 42% and think that additional upside of 20% is within reach. Hensoldt upgraded to Outperform ...
Le wake up call de la conférence de Munich va forcer les pays européens à assumer seuls leur défense. Pour notre couverture, cela se traduira par un TMVA 2024-30 du marché adressable de 31.5% (base case) vs 10.5% précédemment ainsi qu’un support financier qui améliorera le FCF. Nous relevons de 42% en moyenne les OC des valeurs exposées Défense et pensons qu’une appréciation des cours de 20% supplémentaire est à portée de main. Hensoldt relevé à Surperformance et BAE Systems abaissé à Sous-perfo...
Figeac benefits from the improvement in the supply chain and €/$ parity to post 2024-28 EBITDA CAGR of 15% and a tripling of FCF out to March 2028. With leverage at 1.7x, the stress of the refinancing of the 2028 maturity is subsiding. Target price lifted to € 9.3 and blue sky scenario at € 13.5 based on transaction multiples.
L’amélioration de la supply chain et la parité €/$ vont permettre à Figeac d’afficher un TMVA 2024-28 de l’EBITDA de 15% et un triplement du FCF d’ici à mars 2028. Avec un levier à 1.7x, le stress du refinancement de la maturité 2028 retombe. OC relevé à 9.3 € et blue sky scenario à 13.5 € sur la base des multiples de transaction.
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