reports
- Carole Braudeau
- Carole Braudeau
- Cedric Rossi
- Clement Genelot
- Loic Morvan
- Paul Rouviere
- Philippine Adam
On the shelves now: Consumer weekly #38
In this Consumer Weekly newsletter, we provide a brief overview of the key factors affecting our Consumer coverage, from Luxury & Consumer goods to Retail & E-commerce and Food & Ingredients. This week, we analyse the implications of Chinese tourist flows to Japan. Happy reading!
- Clement Genelot
Carrefour: new franchisor model yet to be made sustainable
Whereas Carrefour has achieved its transition towards a franchisor model in France with our deep dive revealing that franchised stores generated >100% of French EBIT in 2023, we consider the current franchisor model unbalanced and unsustainable. A three-scenario stress test on valuation points t
- Carole Braudeau
- Carole Braudeau
- Clement Genelot
Food Retail: Couche-Tard about to acquire 7-Eleven, what impacts on CA...
With Couche-Tard approaching 7-Eleven, we see a more than 50% chance of the deal creating the largest convenience store operator worldwide with USD146bn in revenues. Completing the deal will require overcoming 7-Eleven's top management reluctancy, Japanese politicians, the US anti-trust body and Co
- Clement Genelot
Casino: no short-term liquidity concerns, all eyes on post-Q3 strategi...
Post-Q2, we understand that FY 2024 will be a year of restructuring with continued sluggish top line and margins still under pressure while cash should be preserved thanks to recent disposals. The strategic plan presentation after Q3 will have to demonstrate New Casino's ability to either recover o
- Jerôme Bodin
FP TOTAL SE
AC ACCOR SA
GET GETLINK SE
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
CA CARREFOUR SA
DB1 DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
RNO RENAULT SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
SK SEB SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
LONN LONZA GROUP AG
CPG COMPASS GROUP PLC
NESN NESTLE S.A.
VIV VIVENDI SE
NRG NRJ GROUP SA
RF EURAZEO SA
KER KERING SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
SAN SANOFI
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
EZJ EASYJET PLC
REP REPSOL SA
SOI SOITEC SA
SIX2 SIXT SE
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
MONC MONCLER SPA
IBE IBERDROLA SA
AZN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
VOD ASTRAZENECA PLC
STM VODAFONE GROUP PLC
BESI STMICROELECTRONICS NV
ULA BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ERF UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
STLA EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
UMG STELLANTIS N.V.
DSY UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
ML DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
GSK COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
P911 GSK PLC
SGSN DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
NOVO B SGS SA
NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Jerôme Bodin
FP TOTAL SE
AC ACCOR SA
GET GETLINK SE
IPN IPSEN SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
CA CARREFOUR SA
DB1 DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
BNP BNP PARIBAS SA CLASS A
RNO RENAULT SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
SK SEB SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
RCO REMY COINTREAU SA
LONN LONZA GROUP AG
CPG COMPASS GROUP PLC
NESN NESTLE S.A.
VIV VIVENDI SE
NRG NRJ GROUP SA
RF EURAZEO SA
KER KERING SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
VER SANOFI
EZJ VERBUND AG CLASS A
REP EASYJET PLC
SOI REPSOL SA
SIX2 SOITEC SA
MOCORP SIXT SE
MONC METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
IBE MONCLER SPA
SAN IBERDROLA SA
AZN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
VOD ASTRAZENECA PLC
STM VODAFONE GROUP PLC
BESI STMICROELECTRONICS NV
ULA BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ERF UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
STLA EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
UMG STELLANTIS N.V.
DSY UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
ML DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
GSK COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
P911 GSK PLC
SGSN DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
NOVO B SGS SA
NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Carole Braudeau
AC ACCOR SA
GET GETLINK SE
CA CARREFOUR SA
RNO RENAULT SA
ORA ORANGE SA
SW SODEXO SA
MERY MERCIALYS SA
DEC JCDECAUX SA
FNAC FNAC DARTY SA
KER KERING SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
NEX NEXANS SA
ELIS ELIS SA
SPIE SPIE SA
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
VRLA VERALLIA SAS
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
AF AIR FRANCE - KLM
- Geoffroy Michalet
Carrefour : H1 raises a lot of questions
>Surprising margins by division, much higher in France and much lower in Europe, but overall results in line with expectations - Carrefour reported H1 results that overall were in line with expectations, but the breakdown shows big gaps vs our estimates.France, the positive surprise: against a backdrop of a 2.0% drop in sales LFL (of which -3.4% for hypermarkets, -1.2% for supermarkets and -0.1% for convenience stores) and market share losses over H1, the group ...
- Carole Braudeau
AC ACCOR SA
GET GETLINK SE
CA CARREFOUR SA
RNO RENAULT SA
ORA ORANGE SA
SW SODEXO SA
MERY MERCIALYS SA
DEC JCDECAUX SA
FNAC FNAC DARTY SA
KER KERING SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
NEX NEXANS SA
ELIS ELIS SA
SPIE SPIE SA
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
ULA UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
VRLA VERALLIA SAS
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
AF AIR FRANCE - KLM
- Geoffroy Michalet
Carrefour : Un S1 qui soulève beaucoup de questions
>Des marges surprenantes par division, très supérieures en France et très inférieures en Europe, en ligne au global avec les attentes - Carrefour publie ses résultats S1, qui, s’ils ressortent en ligne au global, font ressortir des écarts avec les attentes importantes.France, la bonne surprise : sur fond d’un CA en baisse de 2.0% LFL (dont -3.4% pour les hypers, -1.2% pour les supers et -0.1% pour la proxi), et des pertes de parts de marché sur le semestre, le gr...
- Clement Genelot
Carrefour: weak Q2 sales, resilient H1 margins
Q2 proved to be disappointing on the sales front but resilient enough at the EBIT level to meet expectations with France expanding margin despite ongoing successful price investments and Brazil mitigating a very weak RoEurope. Carrefour may have reiterated its FY EBIT and FCF guidance, but with the
- Clement Genelot
French food retail: looking beyond acquisitions-boosted market share d...
Kantar market share data highlight another period of French market decline during which Leclerc, Intermarché and U continued to gain market share (even without acquisitions) while Carrefour and Auchan partly, if not entirely, relied on acquisitions to gain share. Carrefour is back in positive terri
- Baptiste Salaville
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Marc Lavaud
- Oddo Sustainability Team
- Sven Edelfelt
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
CA CARREFOUR SA
HO THALES SA
LISN CHOCOLADEFABRIKEN LINDT & SPRUENGLI AG
FGR EIFFAGE SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
ENI ENI S.P.A.
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
VACN VAT GROUP AG
SAP SAP SE
AKZA AKZO NOBEL N.V.
JDEP JDE PEET'S NV
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Baptiste Salaville
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Marc Lavaud
- Oddo Sustainability Team
- Sven Edelfelt
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
CA CARREFOUR SA
HO THALES SA
LISN CHOCOLADEFABRIKEN LINDT & SPRUENGLI AG
FGR EIFFAGE SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
ENI ENI S.P.A.
RY4C RYANAIR HOLDINGS PLC
VACN VAT GROUP AG
SAP SAP SE
AKZA AKZO NOBEL N.V.
JDEP JDE PEET'S NV
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
- Geoffroy Michalet
Carrefour : H1 preview: difficult-to-read consensus, some indications
>Somewhat divergent estimates depending on the sources - Carrefour yesterday afternoon provided consensus figures, which are some way below that shown on the platforms (Visible Alpha and Bloomberg), and largely short of our own estimate.The consensus provided by Carrefour refers to the six 6 latest previews published by brokers (out of over 15 or so brokers covering the stock, nine with figures on Visible Alpha and four on Bloomberg for H1 2024).What...
- Geoffroy Michalet
Carrefour : Preview S1 : un consensus difficile à lire, quelques préci...
>Des estimations un peu divergentes selon les sources - Carrefour a publié un mail de consensus hier après-midi, assez inférieur à ceux observables sur les plateformes (Visible Alpha et Bloomberg), et assez en dessous de notre propre estimation.Le consensus communiqué par Carrefour fait référence aux 6 derniers previews publiés par des brokers (sur plus d’une quinzaine de brokers couvrant le titre, 9 avec des chiffres sur Visible Alpha et 4 sur Bloomberg au titre...
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