GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: China’s 60-day payment rule reshapes autos. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Desay SV and Tuopu. Home Appliance: Expect suspension of government subsidies to be temporary but may lead to postponement of consumer purchases. Results JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$2.59/Target: HK$3.11): FY25: Record-high dividends; positive FY26 outlook. INDONESIA Update Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ/HOLD/Rp1,265/Target: Rp1,300): Expect a moderate SSSG of 3% yoy...
MAPI could book a moderate SSSG (3% yoy) in 2025 considering our view of cautious consumer spending and weakness in its F&B segment. The active lifestyle segment could remain as the main growth driver, though SSSG slowed to 3% in 1Q25. The iPhone 16 launch in April could support 2Q25 performance (and likely its gross margin). We observed its revamped “The Foodhall Gourmet” store and the F&B section inside the supermarket. Maintain HOLD at a target price of Rp1,300.
MAPI recorded 3Q24 NPAT of Rp392b, down 7.9% yoy and 24.9% qoq. 9M24 core NPAT came in at Rp1,320b, declining 8.2% yoy. The reported 9M24 core NPAT is in line with our forecast but below consensus’. The key story in 3Q24 is the gross margin decline which could be caused by discounts or lower margin product mix. Boycotts continue to impact Starbucks’ operations and MAPB continues to record losses. Maintain HOLD with a target price of Rp1,300 (17.7% downside).
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Broad-based improvement in PMI. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.11/Target: HK$14.60): 3Q24: Premiumisation slows down in China; in-home channel to be a focus. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$33.50/Target: HK$40.90): 3Q24: Solid set of results; 4Q24/2025 growth may accelerate further. Maintain BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.91/Target: HK$6.50): 3Q24: In line; 3Q24 wind power generation up 6.2% yoy. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/HOLD/HK$11.54/Tar...
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp4,800/Target: Rp5,600): 3Q24: Higher NIM and strong recovery income. Upgrade to BUY. Bank Syariah Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp3,030/Target: Rp3,400): 9M24: Net profit grew 21.6% yoy from lower CoC. Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp2,500/Target: Rp3,100): 3Q24: Net profit up 30% yoy; maintain BUY. Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ/HOLD/Rp1,580/Target: Rp1,300): 3Q24: Gross margin compression caused 7.9% NPAT decline. TRADERS’ CORNER Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ): Technical ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...
GREATER CHINA Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$16.46/Target: HK$19.50) 1H24: Below expectations; exploring opportunities in overseas markets. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target: HK$33.70) 1H24: Results in line with surprise from special dividend. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$12.34/Target: HK$19.60) 1H24: Core net profit up 13% yoy. Accelerated store opening pace in 2H24; dividend payout expected to remain at reasonable leve...
Consumer companies’ 2Q24 core NPAT rose 19.8% yoy. Indofood Group performed well, with core NPAT of ICBP and INDF rising 31.5% and 41.2% yoy. Consumer companies’ margins expanded thanks to a decline in wheat and skim milk powder prices. Retailers’ margins were stable, with 2Q24 NPAT declining 17.2% yoy. Boycotts on multinational companies are likely to continue. The 2H24 outlook should be similar to that of 1H24, with a bleak 2025 outlook. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Our picks: ACES and CMRY.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Cross Currents We expect the MSCI China index to range trade for the rest of 2024; we prefer TMT, tech hardware and defensives like banks, communication services and utilities. Results Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK/BUY/HK$4.46/Target: HK$5.30) 1H24: In line; shifting focus to offshore WTG and overseas markets. Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$2.49/Target: HK$3.50) 1H24: Result...
In the 2025 State Budget, the government plans to enact an excise tax on sweetened package drinks. This could impact consumer products such as juices, 3-in-1 coffee, sweetened tea, soda, energy drinks and sweetened condensed milk. Implementation in other countries led to long-term sales volume dropping 17-32%. The plastic tax will not be implemented in 2025; four other countries in Asean have enacted this tax. Downgrade the sector to MARKET WEIGHT. Our picks: ACES and CMRY.
GREATER CHINA Results China Resources Beer (291 HK/BUY/HK$24.00/Target: HK$41.30): 1H24: Premiumisation lags; trim sales volume and profit targets. China Resources Building Materials Tech (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.57/Target: HK$1.83): 1H24: Below expectations; hopeful on pent-up demand in 2H24. CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical Co (300765 CH/BUY/Rmb23.39/Target: Rmb33.00): 1H24: Results satisfactory; R&D and CSPC Baike acquisition well on track. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb20.25/Target: Rmb23.30): 2Q24: ...
We have a target price of Rp1,300 and maintain HOLD on MAPI on the back of: a) the boycott of Starbucks continuing to cause losses for its restaurant business, b) the high store opening costs that will impact its performance in the next few quarters, and c) uncertainty at the profit level of MAPI’s department stores. Upside will come from the other divisions such as books. We forecast a 6.4% decline in 2024 NPAT followed by a 10.6% increase in 2025 NPAT.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Jul 24: Our picks are BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising The M&A And Monetisation Bets: Our Alpha Picks marginally beat the KLCI. Jul 24 picks: Ekovest, Gamu...
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Channel checks and observations of Shanghai and Shenzhen home markets. Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$71.35/Target: HK$109.60): 2Q24 sales performance in-line despite Fila’s lower growth; full-year targets maintained with confidence in achieving OPM guidance. Weichai Power (2338 HK/HOLD/HK$11.98/Target: HK$12.50): Sales dragged by market decline. Downgrade from BUY to HOLD. Cut target price from HK$20.00 to HK$12.50. INDONESIA Update Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ/...
MAPI’s NPAT growth could slow down in the next few quarters due to a slower ramp-up of its new regional stores. MAPI’s operations in the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand are EBIT positive but those in Cambodia, Singapore and Malaysia are not. Interest cost from inventory financing could slow profit growth. The weakness at MAPB was caused by the boycott related to the Gaza war. 2024 sales growth could top 15%, while 2024 core NPAT growth could slow to 11.7% yoy. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: ...
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