reports
- Jørgen Lian
Yard response and dry bulk qualms
Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK400.00) - 2024 likely to be back-end loaded
We forecast Q1 organic revenue growth of 4.7% YOY (in line with consensus), driven by Hearing Care (we forecast 4.9%) and Diagnostics (we forecast 8.4%), while Hearing Aids faces a tough YOY comparable (we forecast 3.6%). We expect 2024 to be back-end loaded and driven by Oticon Intent. We expect maintained 2024 guidance of 4–8% organic growth, c1% M&A growth, c-1% FX, and EBIT of DKK4.6bn–5.0bn. We reiterate our BUY and DKK400 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Repricing the tonic for bad weather
We expect above-normal weather-related claims in Q1 as a result of heavy rain and snowfall (and record-low temperatures) in the Nordics at the start of the year. On the positive side, we believe the non-life insurers should see the effects of 2023’s repricing efforts, while their latest CMD presentations leave us confident the sector remains committed to maintaining underwriting discipline. Tryg is our top pick in the Nordic P&C sector, while we also reiterate our BUYs on Sampo and Gjensidige an...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK400.00) - Improved long-term outlook
At its CMD, Demant updated its long-term outlook. It now targets 8–10% LCY growth (7–10%) including 6–8%-points organic growth and c2%-points M&A growth, and still sees incremental EBIT margin expansion. It expects the hearing-aid market to grow 4–6% p.a. in value (2–5%), as ASP is now guided fairly flat. We are positive on the Sirius-based Oticon Intent launch. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to DKK400 (375).
- Jørgen Lian
A brewing challenge for the yards
Our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference was well attended by investors and industry executives showcasing the still-growing interest for the sectors. Limited yard capacity is fuelling high newbuilding prices and raising freight rate expectations for the vast fleet renewal necessary in the coming decade. Long lead times underpin a bullish supply story for much of shipping in the coming years, albeit exposed to geopolitical risks affecting trade patterns. Our overall impression was general op...
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Håkon Astrup
Sampo Oyj (Buy, TP: EUR47.00) - Capital and underwriting discipline
Underwriting improvements and capital generation were again in focus at the CMD. For 2024–2026, Sampo targets a lower group combined ratio of 7% annual growth in operating EPS, which it believes together with further capital optimalisation and a reduced Solvency II target of 150–190% should generate EUR4bn+ in deployable capital by 2026. We have made limited estimate revisions, and reiterate our BUY and EUR47 target price.
- Håkon Astrup
Sampo Oyj (Buy, TP: EUR47.00) - Building a strong P&C foundation
At the CMD due on 6 March, we will look for an update on utilising the renewed P&C focus to drive If P&C improvements and the UK turnaround in Hastings. We expect Sampo to target a combined ratio below 83% by 2026, driven by a combined ratio below 82% in If P&C. Having exited Mandatum and Nordea, we believe the lower capital requirements should allow for further excess capital distributions as the solvency target drops to 150–170%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to EUR47 (...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Konrad Zomer
AC ACCOR SA
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
SREN SWISS RE AG
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
DEMANT DEMANT A/S
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
EVD CTS EVENTIM AG & CO. KGAA
SIK SIKA AG
ADYEN ADYEN NV
- Bruno Cavalier
- Konrad Zomer
AC ACCOR SA
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
SREN SWISS RE AG
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
DEMANT DEMANT A/S
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
EVD CTS EVENTIM AG & CO. KGAA
SIK SIKA AG
ADYEN ADYEN NV
- Oliver Metzger
Demant A/S : Strong performance to continue
>Strong performance to continue - Demant’s Q4 results showed, with an organic growth of 10%, a continuation of the strong performance of previous quarters. On the back of the announced launch of the new hearing aid platform Oticon Intega, we expect that the market share gains in the hearing aid segment will continue also in 2024. Our organic growth forecast for 2024 stands at 7.4% (guidance 4-8%) for the company driven by an expected 8.0% for the hearing aid wholesale...
- Håkon Astrup
Sampo Oyj (Buy, TP: EUR45.00) - Continued strong underwriting
Q4 PTP increased significantly YOY, driven by improved underwriting and a strong investment result. If P&C reported a Q4 combined ratio of 83.1% and a 0.7%-points improvement in the underlying claims ratio. Sampo continues to price ahead of expected claims inflation and is seeing claims frequency in line with its expectations. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by 2% on the back of improved underwriting in If P&C and strong growth in Hastings. We reiterate our BUY and EUR45 target price.
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 02/06/2024
Today we are adding CRH to the ODDO BHF European Large Caps Convictions List. It is exposed to the US economy, which we believe will continue to outperform the European economy, as borne out by the very robust job creation figures released last Friday. CRH generates 75% of its EBITDA in the 10 fastest-growing US states, and also has positive technical catalysts such as its future inclusion in the S&P TMI and Russell 1000 indices. - ...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 06/02/2024
Nous faisons rentrer aujourd’hui CRH dans notre liste de valeurs recommandées Large Caps. Elle est exposée à l’économie américaine qui va continuer ,selon nous, de se montrer plus dynamique que l’économie européenne, comme en ont attesté les très bons chiffres de création d’emploi vendredi dernier. Elle réalise 75% de son EBITDA dans les 10 Etats américains à plus forte croissance et dispose en outre de catalyseurs techniques positifs comme sa future entrée dans les indices S&P TMI et...
- Oliver Metzger
Demant A/S : Strong organic growth continues – 2024 guidance implies s...
>Q4 review - Demant’s Q4 revenues of DKK 5,885m (+10.1% y-o-y, in line with expectations) were driven by strong organic growth of 10% (ODDO BHF/consensus 8%/10%). Hearing healthcare was up 12% organically, driven by an increase of 16% at Hearing aids, while Hearing care and Diagnostics were up 8%, respectively. Communication declined by 25% organically. H2 EBIT of DKK 2,134m (+31.8% y-o-y, margin 18.9%) was -6%/-1% below expectations. EPS of DKK 5.81 was a miss of exp...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK375.00) - Communication follow Implants out
The 2023 guidance was reached but with sales and EBIT at the low end. The guidance for 2024 was strong: organic revenue growth of 4–8% YOY and EBIT of DKK4,600m–5,000m. We view the potential divestment of EPOS and management’s comments on the imminent launch of Oticon Intent as positives for the growth and earnings outlooks. We reiterate our BUY, and have increased our target price to DKK375 (355).
- Jørgen Lian
Dorian LPG (Hold, TP: USD41.80) - Near-term headwinds
The US–Far East arbitrage has been under mounting pressure from a weather-related price spike in the US and a somewhat concerning drop in Far East prices. Accounting for today’s fuel, canal and terminal costs, we believe the arbitrage for shipping is currently closed. Hence, we expect the anticipated rebound in VLGC spot rates to be pushed out in time, while we still forecast the outlook for warmer weather in the US to support the arbitrage going forward. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered ...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK355.00) - 2024 set to be a normalised year
We believe investor focus will be less on the H2 results and more on 2024 guidance. We expect the guidance to be for 3–7% YOY organic revenue growth, c2% M&A revenue growth, a c1% FX headwind, and EBIT of DKK4,400m–4,800m. We believe H2 2023 is set for high market unit growth above the 4–6% structural growth rate on easy comparables, while 2024e looks more normalised at c5% unit growth. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK355 (335).
- Jørgen Lian
Dorian LPG (Hold, TP: USD44.00) - Still-solid earnings
The VLGC freight market has seen a significant decline recently, with solid draws on US propane inventory last week during the cold spell. However, we believe the forecast for warmer weather should keep inventories above the 5-year average and thus aid the US-Far East arbitrage, which currently implies rates of cUSD60k/day, well above spot rates. The latest dividend represents a modest c10% dividend yield, despite an earnings yield of c18% for its Q3 2024–Q2 2025 allowing for more. We have raise...
- Jørgen Lian
US chill set to cool VLGC markets
News of abnormally low temperatures in the days ahead could see US domestic propane demand tailwinds shift to headwinds and potentially threaten LPG exports, as we believe inventory levels could be tested. The US–Far East arbitrage has narrowed from USD380/tonne to USD200/tonne and spot rates are starting to slip as we head into the low season. While the fundamentals still look appealing to us in the medium and long term, we find considerable risk of negative momentum in freight markets based on...
- Håkon Astrup
Underwriting to remain disciplined
We expect heavy rainfall in Denmark and an early winter in the Nordics to lead to somewhat above-normalised claims in Q4, but strong equity markets and marked-to-market gains on bond investments to offset a rise in reported combined ratios. Despite higher interest rates in 2023, we remain confident that insurers will continue to focus on maintaining underwriting discipline. We still find the sector attractive long-term, and highlight Tryg as our top pick in the sector.
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