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ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Set for accelerated growth in '25e

Minor estimate revisions. Falling freight rates positive for Humble's gross margin. '25e EV/EBITA ~9x, ~40% below peers.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

A combination of growth and margin expansion

'24e-'25e EBITA down 2-3%. Capacity investments to aid organic growth. '25e lease adj. FCFE yield excl. earn-outs of ~9%.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Freight costs rule gross margins

Rising freight rates dilute the gross margin. '24e-'26e EBITA down 5-1%. '24e-'25e lease adj. FCFE yield excl. earn-outs of ~7%.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Doing all the right things

'24e-'26e EBITA down 7-1% primarily due to changes in capitalisation policy. '24e-'25e lease adj. FCFE yield excl. earn-outs of ~8%.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Gross margin headwinds persist

Gross margin est. down on continually elevated freight rates. '24e-'26e EBITA down 4-2%. '24e-'25e lease adj. FCFE yield excl. earn-outs of 8-10%.

Fredrik Ivarsson ... (+2)
  • Fredrik Ivarsson
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Humble Group - Set for an exciting Q4

‘23e-‘24e EBITA estimates up 5% Working capital build-up sets high Q4 expectations Share trading at EV/EBITA ‘23e-‘24e 9-7x

Fredrik Ivarsson ... (+2)
  • Fredrik Ivarsson
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Humble Group - Q3 beats expectations

Sales of SEK 1,354m, +12% vs ABGSCe EBITA of SEK 108m, +18% vs ABGSCe We expect cons. to make positive estimate revisions

Fredrik Ivarsson ... (+2)
  • Fredrik Ivarsson
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Humble Group - Logistics starting to help out

Q3’22 report due Wednesday, 23 November Transportation costs coming down Share trading at EV/EBITDA ’23e-‘24e of 7.9-6.2x

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