reports
- Håkon Astrup
Outlook for continued high rates
Although we continue to expect some margin headwind, the outlook for postponed rate cuts – leaving interest rates at continued high levels – should bode well for sector earnings, further supported by a strong profitability focus and modest loan losses. With the sector trading at an average 2026e P/E of c11.0x, and solid dividend potential, we find the valuation undemanding. We reiterate our positive sector view but highlight a larger share of HOLD recommendations than 12 months ago.
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK156.00) - Solid revenues and lower...
Helped by solid fee income and lower costs, HELG reported a Q4 ROE of 10.7%, despite some margin pressure. The board proposed a 2024 DPS of NOK8.4, implying a ~52% payout ratio. With the report, the bank updated its CET1 ratio benefit to 0.8% (previously 1.0%) from the upcoming implementation of Basel IV, further boosting its already-strong dividend capacity. We have edged up our 2025–2026e EPS by 0–2%. While we have raised our target price to NOK156 (144), with the stock trading at a dividend-a...
- Håkon Astrup
On course for ample distributions
While we forecast some margin moderation from current highs, we believe still-high interest rates, robust asset quality and a firm profitability focus bode well for continued strong earnings. With the sector trading at an average dividend-adjusted 2025e P/E of ~9.3x and several banks having additional excess capital, we still find the valuation undemanding. Noting some HOLD recommendations, we keep our positive sector view.
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK142.00) - Back to positive NII tre...
Helped by a NOK15m gain from the Fremtind/Eika merger and renewed QOQ NII tailwinds, HELG reported a strong Q3 ROE of 12.9%. Loan losses were 17bp. With the report, the bank guided for a ~1%-point CET1 ratio benefit from the upcoming implementation of Basel IV, adding to its already generous dividend capacity. We have edged up our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1–2% and our target price to NOK142 (139). That said, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~10.0x, we continue to find the valuation fair and re...
Moody's Ratings upgrades SpareBank 1 Helgeland's long-term deposit rat...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today upgraded SpareBank 1 Helgeland's long-term deposit and issuer ratings to A2 from A3. At the same time, we upgraded the Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA to baa1 from baa2, its short-term deposit ratings to P-1 from P-2, and its long-term Counterpar...
- Håkon Astrup
Still-encouraging profitability outlook
Despite expecting some margin headwinds, we believe still-high interest rates, robust asset quality and a firm profitability focus bode well for sector earnings remaining strong. Adding generous dividend prospects, we continue to find the valuation undemanding, with a coverage average 2025e P/E of ~9.1x. While noting a slightly more nuanced perspective with some HOLD recommendations, we maintain our positive sector view.
- Håkon Astrup
2024 Norwegian bank survey - Sector trends remain promising
While the respondents unsurprisingly forecast margins to decline from current highs, our 11th annual survey of the 50 largest banks in Norway presents an upbeat outlook, in our view. In addition to robust asset quality, the banks expect a slight uptick in lending growth. Supported by a market-disciplining profitability focus and solid dividend potential, we still find the sector valuation undemanding at an average 2025e P/E of ~9.3x. Noting a slightly more nuanced perspective with some HOLD reco...
SpareBank 1 Helgeland: 1 director
A director at SpareBank 1 Helgeland sold 80,000 shares at 127.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 76/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Buy, TP: NOK136.00) - Low loan losses, but marg...
Aided by low loan losses, HELG reported a solid Q2 ROE of 11.7% (>11% target) and pre-tax profit of ~6% above our estimate, despite somewhat elevated cost inflation. Meanwhile, with strong lending growth offset by margin pressure, ‘real NII’ fell by 1.5% QOQ. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~4%, driven by lower NII and higher costs, and trimmed our target price to NOK136 (138). That said, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.1x and generous dividend prospects, we continue to find the va...
- Håkon Astrup
Robust profitability outlook
With the key policy-rate trajectory indicating still-high interest rates, we see prospects for NII remaining at solid levels, despite expecting some margin pressure. Helped by additional support from robust asset quality, we expect continued strong sector profitability. Trading at an average 2025e P/E of ~8.9x, we continue to find the valuation undemanding and keep our positive sector view. SRBNK is our top sector pick.
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK134.00) - Turn in NII momentum
Helped by strong trading income, HELG reported a Q1 ROE of ~12% versus its >11% target, despite the pre-announced elevated loan losses. With one less interest day and margin pressure, ‘real NII’ fell 2.2% QOQ. While down QOQ, the CET1 ratio remained solid at 18.1% (>16.5% target). We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~3–5%, driven by lower NII, and lowered our target price to NOK134 (139). Trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.0x, we continue to find a more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector and...
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK139.00) - Set for elevated loan lo...
With cNOK55m (58bp) of pre-announced loan losses, but prospects for solid revenue momentum, we expect a Q1 ROE of 11.0%, in line with its >11% target. With ample ~2.2%-points headroom to its capital requirement (including a 1% management buffer) at end-2023, we see scope for payout ratios of >80% over our forecast horizon. That said, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.7x, we continue to find a more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered o...
- Håkon Astrup
Scope for continued strong earnings
Seeing support from still-high interest rates and sound fundamentals, we expect solid NII and robust asset quality to contribute to continued strong earnings generation for the banks, despite the stable and eventually falling key policy rate trajectory. Trading at an average 2025e P/E of ~8.5x (adjusted for undistributed 2023 dividends), we continue to find the valuation undemanding. We maintain a positive view on the sector and highlight SVEG as our top pick.
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK145.00) - Q4 ROE hit by elevated l...
While the NII momentum continued (+4.2% QOQ), the Q4 ROE was 8.2% versus its >11% target, following negative trading income and elevated loan losses. With an uptick in RWA and the proposed 2023 DPS of NOK10.8 implying a ~77% payout ratio, the CET1 ratio fell ~1.4%-points QOQ. That said, at 18.4%, the bank still has ample buffer to its updated >16.5% target. We have cut our target price to NOK145 (147) on trimmed estimates, and at a dividend-adjusted 2025e P/E of 8.5x, we now find the risk/reward...
Moody's affirms SpareBank 1 Helgeland's long-term deposit ratings at A...
Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has today affirmed the A3 long-term deposit and issuer ratings of SpareBank 1 Helgeland. Furthermore, the rating agency affirmed the Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA at baa2, and the short-term deposit rating at Prime-2. Moody's also affirmed th...
- Håkon Astrup
Scope for further generous distributions
With repricing efforts yet to take full effect and sound fundamentals boding well for manageable loan losses, we see prospects for solid earnings generation ahead, despite likely margin pressure from high levels longer-term. Given the banks’ solid capital positions, a more moderate growth outlook, and an enhanced profitability focus in the sector, we forecast further generous shareholder distributions, with an average dividend/ buyback yield of ~8% for 2023e. At an average 2024e P/E of ~8.4x, we...
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Buy, TP: NOK147.00) - Returned NII momentum
Boosted by increased ‘real NII’ (up by ~8% QOQ) and relatively moderate loan losses, HELG reported a Q3 ROE of ~11.6%, despite negative trading income. With ample headroom to requirements and further upside potential from an updated Pillar 2 assessment, we see scope for generous dividend distributions ahead and forecast a combined 2023–2025 dividend yield of ~30%. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by ~3%, driven by higher NII, and our target price to NOK147 (146). Trading at a 2024e P/E below 8x...
- Håkon Astrup
NII momentum to continue into 2024e
With recent repricing efforts yet to take full effect, we expect continued margin momentum for the rest of 2023 and into 2024. With additional support from relatively resilient asset quality, we see room for still-solid earnings for the sector ahead. Also, we believe enhanced profitability focus, comfortable capital positions and a more moderate growth outlook bode well for sustained generous dividend distributions. Trading at an average 2024e P/E of ~8.5x, we reiterate our positive sector view....
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