Swisscom has reported a good set of numbers vs consensus, with a strong EBITDA beat, but SR trends have deteriorated slightly in Switzerland and guidance has not been lifted for FY25, suggesting a pull forward of cost out, rather than a more material fundamental improvement.
Vodafone’s Q1 results do show some signs of improving revenue growth in Germany with a more disciplined approach to pricing. We think Vodafone still looks very attractively priced at the moment, but we believe a longer-term outlook from management would help to underpin more confidence in the investment case.
The European Telecoms continues to outperform: up 17% YTD vs. the market up 10%. While this is great to see, adding to the 12pp outperformance in 2024 and supporting our investment thesis of improving regulation, it does mean the equity upside story from here is becoming more selective.
We recently held investor calls with senior management at Salt (HERE), Swisscom (HERE) and Sunrise. We provide a summary in this report. We are Neutral on all three names, but if domestic conditions are indeed improving, as was suggested, then we would become more positively inclined. In addition, we can see how all three look attractive on a yield relative basis to the now 0% Swiss central Bank rate, that is seemingly heading to negative territory again.
As part of the Vodafone-Three merger (VOD3UK), the merging companies committed to sell a portfolio of spectrum to VMO2. The details of that spectrum portfolio have now been formally disclosed by Ofcom, which has published a notification listing the frequencies that are due to be transferred (LINK). In this note, we run through the final decisions and implications for potential UK revenue share.
Yesterday, we hosted a call for investors with Swisscom CEO, Christoph Aeschlimann. Topics were wide-ranging, but he talked encouragingly about the outlook for Swiss SR, with new products in B2C (family plans) and B2B (BEEM). Overall, market dynamics appear to be improving in Swiss B2C mobile.
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Enterprise IT and PCs. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, rising 9% YoY. RAN spending is stabilizing, up l...
As we expected, the UK merger completed this morning, so we wanted to take this opportunity to highlight the note we put out on Saturday, in which we published our new model (including the UK merger, and assuming Vodafone buys out the Hutchinson minority in 3 years’ time). The terms of the deal are as initially announced. We believe the value creation is +9p per share, included within our 120p price target. We still see >50% upside from current levels.
We don't usually aim to publish price target updates over the weekend, so please do forgive us, but with today being May 31st and Vodafone's desire to close the UK merger during H1 and at a month-end, we would like to think that the UK deal closing could be very imminent - and maybe even today.
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