Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) Post call thoughts: What is needed to hit...

Vodafone’s H1 earnings call recently wrapped up with the stock having sold off during and after the call. We review our thoughts on this and in this note show some further analysis on what would be required to meet the FY EBITDA guidance based on the new comments given in the call.

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +100%) H1 25 - Questions still lingering in Germ...

Vodafone has reported their H1 results, and although headline numbers were in line with expectations and all guidance has been reiterated.

Altice International (Over weight) Digi (Equal weight) NOS (Neutral, T...

Digi launched in Portugal, one week ago – read our take HERE. In this report we look at how the launch has been received in Portugal (including a run-through of tariff changes by the incumbents).

A-rated TMT credit investments/Better credits at similar spreads

In this report we evaluate the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Wolters Kluwer, Relx, Swisscom and ASML look attractive. The notes of SAP and Telenor look to trade at fair value. As spread curves trade rather flat, we prefer notes in the belly of the curves. In this note we provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.

Vodafone UK-3 merger: Detailed review of CMA remedy paper

GERMAN ALTNET UPDATE: What will be the key to success?

Last week, we reviewed the UK altnet market. So this week, we turn our attention to Germany and how the fibre challengers are developing in that market. We have done a lot of work over the past few months on the MDU market in Germany for TeleColumbus and OXG. So now, we specifically focus on Deutsche Glasfaser and the recent UGG/ Infrafibre deal, as these players mount their challenge against DT in the SDU market.

Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF600, +8%) Q3 24: Swiss EBITDA supported by g...

Swisscom has reported a solid set of numbers. Swiss SR trends ex wholesale are unchanged (which is in stark contrast to Sunrise), but better cost cutting has led to a 2% EBITDA beat vs consensus for Switzerland and a 1% beat at the Group level.

UK Telcos Impact from higher employers' taxation in upcoming Budget

Over the weekend, it has been widely reported that the upcoming Budget this Wednesday will include a 2pp rise for employer national insurance tax. In this brief note, we run through the financial implications of this for the UK telecoms companies (BT, VMO2, TalkTalk and Vodafone) and who is most exposed.

Vodafone should be bold: Buy out OXG minority Unlocking synergies fro...

This week we have the DT CMD and therefore the topic of German fibre build will likely be in focus. Over the past few months, we have written a number of thematic notes looking at this topic in more detail:

EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?

When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/SAP and Swisscom

Technology - SAP reportedly under investigation by US officials for potentially collusive behaviour

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Swisscom

Telecom - Swisscom reports that Italian acquisition faces a Phase II competition review

Vodafone (Buy, 140p, +89%) Hidden upside in the non-EU assets

Today, our colleague Chris Hoare has published two thematic notes looking at Sub-Saharan African telecoms companies. These focus on the potential for market structures and revenues to improve, and especially after periods of currency weakness (which has been notable in Egypt and Turkey).

FWA in Europe: Maybe it isn't accelerating Analysis of Hutchison's H1...

Clearly the biggest issue for them is whether the merger with Vodafone UK will be approved or not. As one would also expect they couldn’t be drawn on any new substantive comments on this while the CMA process is ongoing. For our detailed thoughts from May on the CMA Phase 1 findings on that deal, please see our expert call on the topic.

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Swisscom, Telefonica, Wolters Kluwer, Klep...

Telecom: Swisscom 1H24 results point to a though domestic market. Telefonica reports soft 2Q24 results. Technology: Wolters Kluwer reports strong 1H24 results. Real Estate: Klepierre boosts 2024 guidance after strong first half results. Colonial reports mixed first half results. Public storage reports weaker results, cuts FY guidance. WP Carey lowers FY guidance on lagging deal volumes Aedifica reports good numbers and upgrades FY guidance

Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF611, +15%) Q2 24: Mixed numbers, Switzerla...

Swisscom has reported a slightly mixed set of numbers. Swiss SR trends ex wholesale are slightly better, but slightly worse inc wholesale and EBITDA trends have slipped and Swiss EBITDA is light of consensus expectations by -1.6%. Group EBITDA is slightly ahead (+0.3%) thanks to Other/Fastweb.

Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +91%) Q1 25 - Assessing a revised outlook for Ge...

Vodafone’s Q1 results are now boosted by some additional (and supportive) EBITDA disclosure, but the ongoing fly in the ointment is still their German broadband KPI trend which remains unresolved.

EU Towers/ Vodafone Our take on Vantage selldown

This morning Vodafone finally announced that they have sold a further 10% stake in Oak Holdings (the Vantage Towers holding company) to the consortium led by GIP and KKR, for €1.3bn of proceeds. In this brief note, we run through what this implies for Vodafone and other tower valuations.

EU Telecoms: Half-time report 2024 Sector should still be able to out...

European Telecoms has had a reasonable first half of 2024 – up 7% vs. the market up 9% - and is up 15% since January 2022 – bang in line with the EU market. The sector trades in line with the market on P/E for similar earnings growth, but we still see two major structural levers of upside:

A-rated TMT credit has appeal/Market softness creates buying opportuni...

In this report we evaluate the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Wolters Kluwer and Relx look attractive. We prefer to avoid the notes of Proximus until we get further clarity about competitive dynamics in Belgium, following the expected entry of Digi. ASML and SAP, where spreads have widened a little since April 2024, could appeal to some investors. In this note we provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.