Huge improvements priced in

Gjensidige Forskring ASA: 1 director

A director at Gjensidige Forskring ASA bought 1,000 shares at 236.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

Gjensidige Forsikring (Hold, TP: NOK235.00) - Profitable growth ahead

On the back of repricing measures, mild winter weather, and a solid investment result, Gjensidige reported Q1 PTP of NOK1,719m, up ~60% YOY. Although we expect continued solid growth momentum on further price hikes of upwards of 19.5% in Private, the profitability focus is leading to some churn among Commercial clients. In sum, we have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by 1–2%, and reiterate our HOLD and NOK235 target price.

Financials beat just outweigh UW miss

Adj. PTP -13%/-17% vs IR and ABGSCe (higher large losses). Even more repricing could make consensus estimates unchanged. Stock valuation high, hence stock down 1-4% from the UW miss

A setback for AUM and returns

Heads-up for Q1 report, April 29

Tryg AS: 2 directors

Two Directors at Tryg AS sold 65,000 shares at between 149.720DKK and 149.964DKK. The significance rating of the trade was 81/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...

Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Earnings momentum still solid

Through both favourable weather and narrowing credit spreads, Q1 PTP was 48% higher YOY. Recent repricing efforts continue to take effect, as seen in a 0.3%-points improved underlying claims ratio YOY, although portfolio rebalancing weighed somewhat on growth. Supported by an outlook for abating motor claims pressure, we continue to find the investment case favourable. Having made limited EPS revisions for 2026–2027e, we reiterate our BUY and DKK185 target price.

A safer place to be

PTP beat from financials, UW inline

PTP beat from better financials, UW inline or a tad better. Reiterate '27 guidance and '25 premium growth from private/SMEs. Stock to outperform 1-3%; cons.est.rev. minor; strong read-x to GJF

Heads-up for Q1-report, 11 April

Nordic non-life Q1e: Should manage the turmoil

Efficient and with lower risk

Positive R/R into report

Solid growth momentum into 2025e

Helped by benign weather with few storms, we expect solid underwriting across the Nordic P&C sector for Q1, with underlying performance further supported by earned repricing momentum and abating claims inflation. The sector is trading at an attractive average 2026e P/E of c15.2x and we see solid capital distribution prospects. We reiterate our recommendations on all our covered sector names and highlight Tryg as our top pick.

Non-life: Competition authority consider to look at the competition

The DCCA is out with report describing inefficient comp. Could be a drag for Tryg and ALMB despite the industry objections. ALMB drop looks attractive, but it could drag on for two more years.

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Strong start to the year

Fuelled by strong AUM growth within Savings, and the effects of several rounds of insurance repricing, we forecast a Q1 PTP (before amortisation) of NOK1,166m, ~8% stronger YOY. With the new NOK1.5bn buyback underway, the company is offering an attractive payout yield of 6–7%. We believe the stock is attractively valued at a 2026e P/E of c10x, when adjusting for the excess capital to be distributed. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NOK149 (140).

Realised claims synergies ahead of plan

Realised ~2.1pp (NOK 812m), 2 years ahead of time, 75% in NO. ~50% operational, ~40% fraud & procurement & ~10% RedGo. More synergies will be taken out; consensus could improve '27e CR.

Acquire a 20% COI market stake at 7-9x P/E

Acquire Buysure that has 5-years agreements with real estate agents. A 12.5x P/E payment, but with GJF as risk carrier, more 7-9x. The NOK 430m is 4pp of its solvency; neutral to LT-positive

Norway: Best ideas Q1'25