Norwegian banks: Q1'25 outcome vs. expectations

Priced for flat interest rates: down to SELL

Delivers in-line with expectations

Adj. PTP -1% vs. ABGSCe & cons, driven by mgmt loan loss overlay; Trimmed lending guiding and positive capital revisions; Cons. up for 25e (beat), minor for '26e-'27e, stock to hold up

A small step in their broader plan

Fundamentals well reflected in pricing

SpareBank 1 Sør-Norge (Hold, TP: NOK180.00) - Strong core revenues

Helped by strong core revenues and limited loan losses, the Q1 ROE was 13.5%, despite some underlying cost inflation and merger-related costs. Backed by solid earnings generation, the CET1 ratio rose ~30bp QOQ to 18.3%, with an ample buffer to the ~17.6% requirement, boding well for meaningful distributions over our forecast horizon. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by 2–3% on higher NII and fee income, and our target price to NOK180 (170), but continue to find the valuation fair and reiterate ...

Sparebank 1 SMN (Buy, TP: NOK202.00) - Solid core revenue growth

Q1 PTP was NOK1,269m, 6% lower YOY, as stronger ‘real NII’ and fees were offset by soft trading and higher opex. On a QOQ basis, two fewer interest days, and somewhat softer growth, led to a ‘real NII’ decline. With a CET1 ratio of 18.1%, we see continued capital headroom, supportive of solid distributions. We have trimmed our 2026–2027e EPS by ~1% on the NII trend, but reiterate our BUY and NOK202 target price.

Strong numbers, but pricing is fair

Weaker NII and cost to impact revisions

Adj. PTP -3% vs. ABGSCe, -2% vs. cons; Higher cost to impact revisions; Cons. '25e-27e EPS chg. down 2-4%, stock down 2-4% today

Strong adj. PBLL beat +8% vs. cons

Adj. PBLL +3% vs ABGSCe, and +8% vs. cons; Stronger lending growth and unchanged synergies guidance; Expect cons. adj. EPS up by 2-4% and stock to go 2-5% today

Revisions hit by NII and capital synergies

Sparebanken Vest (Buy, TP: NOK157.00) - Strong pre-merger quarter

Continued solid loan growth, high fees, and a strong trading result helped offset merger-related costs and seasonally soft NII, as SVEG reported Q1 PTP of NOK1,415m, 13% higher YOY, and a Q1 ROE of 21.3%. As capital synergies are expected to offset increased IRB risk weights in the 2 May merger, we continue to find the capital situation supportive for further distributions. We have cut our 2026–2027e EPS by ~2%, while reiterating our NOK157 target price and our BUY.

Q1: Small beat standalone, inline proforma

Adj. net profit +2% (standalone) due to asset quality; inline (proforma). Softer NII, while better fees (Borea), weaker costs (Borea). Cons. est. rev. minor negative, stock to perform in line to just soft

Norwegian banks Q1: priced for higher rates

Our favourite among the savings banks

Priced according to higher-for-longer scenario

Attractive yield but fundamentals well priced in

Need further details on bullish ROE guidance

Sparebanken 1 SMN: 3 directors

Three Directors at Sparebanken 1 SMN bought 7,254 shares at between 181.260NOK and 182.310NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ov...

Heder Bank to offer mortgages at 4.99%