Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Underlying soft GLP-1 sales

We forecast a soft Q1, with 17.3% LCY sales growth and 13.8% LCY operating profit growth due to subdued prescriptions. While we estimate Ozempic sales c0.5% below consensus, we are c1.2% above for Wegovy, as we include DKK1bn in sales related to Wegovy US inventories. We see likely relief from potential unchanged 2025 LCY guidance, supported by improved Wegovy supply and fading pressure from compounders. We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Focus on pipeline progression

We expect an uneventful Q1 report, with investor focus on top-line results from the dapiglutide phase Ib obesity trial (due in Q2), which could help provide clarity on the positioning of the molecule in obesity and inflammation. For petrelintide, we have reduced our peak sales forecast to cUSD10.0bn (cUSD10.8bn) on increased competition from GUBamy. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,150).

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Flex LNG (Buy, TP: NOK320.00) - Set to hold course on 14% DPS yield

With ~90% of days fixed for 2025 and 2026, and a cash balance of 11x its ‘regular’ quarterly dividend, Flex LNG’s USD0.75 DPS looks insulated from market storm, offering a compelling 14% yield. Additionally, we expect freight markets to recover from 2026, with current newbuild prices implying a long-term TC contract of cUSD90k/day to justify the investment, in our opinion supporting a firm long-term rate outlook. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK320 (340).

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1

We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).

ABGSC Shipping Daily 31 March

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Deal delivery

We are positive on the partnership with Roche for petrelintide and view the financial terms as favourable for Zealand Pharma. While we had included Roche as the partner for petrelintide in our base case, the deal terms are better than we assumed. Thus, we have updated our valuation for petrelintide to DKK731 NPV/share. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,150 (1,010), based on our SOTP NPV.

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Poised for big news

Q4 revenue was DKK9.1m, driven by the Zegalogue licence and development agreement with Novo Nordisk, and EBIT was DKK-399.3m (we forecast DKK-370.1m, consensus DKK-367.6m). The 2025 opex guidance was for DKK2,000m–2,500m, reflecting pipeline progression investments. We expect strong pipeline news flow in H1, including dapiglutide headline results and potentially a petrelintide partnership. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,010 target price.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Focus on partnership discussion...

We expect an uneventful Q4 report, but with investor focus on the ongoing petrelintide partnership discussions. Our base case derives DKK593/share for petrelintide, assuming a profit-sharing agreement in H1. We believe recruitment for the petrelintide phase II trial will be completed in H1 (headline results in Q1 2026e) and look for 2025 opex guidance of DKK1,750m–1,850m. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,010 target price.

Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold after exercising options/sold 40,000 shares at 620.260DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors...

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Credibility rebuilding

We attended a management roundtable discussion in London today. Highlights included focus on the obesity portfolio with the CagriSema results and launch delay, Amycretin, and early-stage candidates. Management remains confident in its ability to scale beyond 2025, aided by the acquisition of Catalent and the resolution of Wegovy and Ozempic supply issues by 2026. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,040 target price.

Well protected in this market downturn

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Turning point achieved

The company met its full-year guidance, with c26% LCY sales and operating profit growth in Q4. We believe the 2025 guidance for 16–24% LCY sales growth and 19–27% operating profit growth indicates strong operating leverage. At tomorrow’s ‘Meet the Management’ event, we expect GLP-1 supply to be the key focus. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,040 target price.

Flex LNG Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates following the Q4 report. We still believe Flex LNG’s solid contract backlog, leading to limited spot exposure near-term, and ample liquidity (11x its Q4 dividend) leave it well placed to maintain its quarterly USD0.75 DPS for an attractive 12% run-rate dividend yield, despite our expectations for the current historically weak freight market to remain soft for at least 2025. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendati...

A playbook on US tariffs

As a response to recent news flow of potential tariffs and countermeasures, we highlight the main implications for the shipping sectors we cover. While the specifics remain uncertain, the below input might assist in gauging potential impacts of the disruptions.

Q4 in line, FY'25 guidance as expected

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Wegovy sales hinge on supply

Based on realised US prescriptions, we forecast LCY to be below the 2024 guidance midpoint. Our Q4e sales for Wegovy and Ozempic are below consensus, likely due to a lack of script data among contributors, inventory fluctuations, or different rebate assumptions. We expect 2025 LCY guidance for 15–23% sales growth and 16–24% operating profit growth. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,040 target price.

Flex LNG (Buy, TP: NOK340.00) - DPS likely shielded from market lull

With limited spot exposure in 2025–2026e and ample pro forma liquidity of c11x its ‘regular’ USD0.75 quarterly DPS, we see support to maintain a 12% dividend yield. We also see re-rating potential of its contract backlog, and calculate a 16% earnings yield assuming ‘open’ vessels (with no extension options exercised) are contracted at the 2019–2024 average 2-stroke 1-year TC rate of USD110k/day in 2027. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NOK340 (335).

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1040.00) - Disappointing CagriSema data

In REDEFINE-1, CagriSema reached a 22.7% product estimand weight loss, shy of expectations. We expect a launch in 2026, but have lowered our estimate of its sales potential. In our view, the flexible protocol affected efficacy, prompting Novo Nordisk to initiate a new phase III trial in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK1,040 (1,150).