HEADLINES: • PKO BP: solid 4Q25 numbers – small bottom-line beat, but underlying trends in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Allegro: 4Q25 above the consensus; FY26E guidance in line with our expectations POSITIVE • Orlen: submits new non-binding offer for Grupa Azoty Polyolefins NEUTRAL • CEZ: small 4Q25 beat on EBITDA, 2026E guidance below the consensus NEGATIVE • Colt CZ Group: planning dual AEX listing and a capital increase POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: two exploration projects in Bulgaria now NEUT...
February developments have been left in the dust with the opening days of March and the conflict in the Gulf. Oil and gas prices are up; we have already seen refining margins soar; and maybe even petrochemical margins can enjoy a moment in the sunshine.
EME Equity Market – February 2026 Muted performance across the region, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in February. The Turkish ISE was the top performer, adding 5.4% mom in EUR terms; while the Polish WIG and the Romanian BET improved slightly (+0.9% and +0.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Czech PX and the Greek ASE were the worst performers (-4.9%, and -3.0% mom, respectively, in EUR terms), w...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: strong 4Q25 delivery bodes well for 2026E outlook POSITIVE • Orlen: 4Q25 results – strong underlying EBITDA POSITIVE • Kruk: buys material portfolio in Italy – very strong start to 2026E in terms of investments scale POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: signs PLN 7.5m contract NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: 4Q25E preview – EBITDA to decline by 48% qoq (due on 19 March) • GEK Terna: EUR 1.1bn planned Vrochonera HPS project secures ...
HEADLINES: • DO & CO: mixed 3Q FY26 P&L results; strong FCFF generation, double vs. last year NEUTRAL • Orlen: acquires stake in the Afrodite discovery in Norway NEUTRAL • PZU: 4Q25E results preview (due on 26 February) • Text: 3Q25-26E preview – 28% yoy EBITDA decline expected (due on 26 February) • MOL: to explore for oil and gas in Libya with TPAO and Repsol POSITIVE • Hidroelectrica: preliminary 4Q25 total volumes sold 18% above our estimate POSITIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: secures access ...
HEADLINES: • OPAP: only 6.7% of shares elect for cash exit; free float to remain above all-important 20% level POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: TUI renews cooperation with Wakacje.pl POSITIVE • Budimex: signs PLN 481m contract with GAZ-SYSTEM NEUTRAL • Orlen: 4Q25E results preview (due on 19 February) NEUTRAL • InPost: 4Q25E preview – flattish adjusted EBITDA expected (due on 18 March) NEUTRAL • Enea: 4Q25E preview – 11% EBITDA drop on weaker Generation and Mining (prelims due on 23 March; full due ...
Brent crude oil prices have finally stopped falling, bouncing by USD 3.1/bbl in January 2026. In December 2025, a small increase in oil production from OPEC was offset by declines in Russia and Kazakhstan. The WOOD benchmark refining margin rose slightly, but company margins declined. Olefin prices increased, while naphtha prices were stagnant, bringing some respite to petrochemicals.
EME Equity Market – January 2026 All regions in the green in January, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 11.1% mom in EUR terms and 13.2% mom in USD terms in January. The Turkish ISE was the top performer (+20.8% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX (+17.5% mom); the Romanian BET (+11.1% mom); the Greek ASE (+9.2% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+5.9% mom); and the Czech PX (+2.4% mom; all in EUR terms).
We have downgraded Orlen to HOLD (from Buy), with a new price target (PT) of PLN 102.7 (from PLN 73.3), offering upside of -2.2%. For Orlen, 2025 was an annus mirabilis and the share price broke new records, so we see limited upside from here. Gas prices fell in 2025, lowering our expectations for upstream and supply EBITDA. Capex in 2025E was below plan, but we expect negative FCF in 2026-27E. Acquisitions and discoveries keep Orlen’s upstream segment on a growing trajectory, while the first of...
EME Equity Market – December 2025 Czech PX the best performer in December; no market in the red. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.6% mom in USD terms in December. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 7.6% mom; followed by the Romanian BET (+7.1% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+6.4% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Turkish ISE 30 (+0.4% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+0.2% mom; all in EUR terms).
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