We discontinue our coverage of the following stocks, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: AD Plastik Arena Hospitality Group Bittnet Ciech Conpet Dogus Otomotiv Ekspress Grupp Fintel Energija Immofinanz Kcell Kernel KGHM Komercijalna Banka NLB Banka Petrol Group S Immo Sava Re Shelly Group (formerly Allterco) STS Group Turk Telekom Turkcell Ulker Zagreb Stock Exchange
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: strong 3Q22, with adjusted EBITDA up 30% yoy, 8% above our estimate POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 3Q22 adjusted EBITDA 4-6% above our and the market's expectations, a mixed October NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 3Q22 - weak quarter on low ADTV • DataWalk: actual 3Q22 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Sava RE: 3Q22 results review - increase in net profit to EUR18m and annualised ROE to 13.9% • Tupras: subsidiary Entek applies for 1 GW of rene...
HEADLINES: • CA Immo: locking in profits after relative outperformance (downgraded to SELL) • Piraeus Bank: 3Q22 - strong quarter, improving capital • Bank Handlowy: 3Q22 brings beat on strong underlying NII POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: another strong beat in 3Q22 • Transgaz: 3Q22 - strong net income beat due to revenues from auction premium • Bittnet Systems: 3Q22 results review - misses on EBITDA and bottom line vs. our forecasts NEGATIVE • Alro: RON 125m net loss in 3Q22 • Transelect...
EME Equity Market – September 2022 Market performance – in a rough month for the markets, Turkey emerges as the top-performing region, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 8.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.7% mom in USD in September; while the ISE index outperformed all the other indices once again, but with a muted performance this time, adding just 1.0% mom in EUR terms and 0.1% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded negative performances, with the Czech PX Index losing 4....
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: unjustified premium to its peers (downgraded to SELL) • Allegro: 2Q22E results in line with the prelims; FY22E guidance upper range trimmed (again) POSITIVE • PKN Orlen: EGM approves the merger with PGNiG • CD Projekt: 20m Cyberpunk copies sold to date NEUTRAL • Petrol Group: Geoplin awaits capital raise or nationalisation • Fondul Proprietatea: Hidroelectrica postpones the decision regarding the acquisition of CEZ Vanzare • Hungary macro: twisting policies helps, b...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
HEADLINES: • Czech banks: picking the stronger one (Komercni Banka stays BUY, MONETA Money Bank stays HOLD) • Bittnet Systems: 2Q22 - solid quarter, with 88% yoy increase in EBITDA, 65% above our estimate POSITIVE • Purcari Wineries: 2Q22 net profit 14% below our expectations on higher costs • Petrol Group: 2Q22 results hit by prices caps in Slovenia • 4iG: 2Q22E preview - 28x yoy growth in EBITDA due to M&A expected (due on 31 August) • Short News (TPE)
HEADLINES: • PKO BP: posts solid 2Q22 results NEUTRAL • Poland macro: GDP slows, but remains well above trend • Cyfrowy Polsat: 2Q22 results - pro-forma EBITDA down 6% yoy to PLN 893m, in line with consensus NEUTRAL • Tauron: 2Q22 results review - strong figures hit by provisions in generation NEUTRAL • KGHM: EBITDA miss, net income beat, negative operating cash flow • Benefit Systems: takeaways from the call, optimistic 2H22E outlook NEUTRAL • Sava RE: 2Q22 results review - annualised ROE de...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 7M22 traffic, strong travel demand driving fares, cheaper fuels leading to a share re • Tekfen: 2Q22 - strong beat, driven by long expected recovery in E&C margins POSITIVE • Aselsan: 2Q22 results - top down beat, but no guidance upgrade POSITIVE • Photon Energy: 2Q22 results review - strong beat, FY guidance hiked POSITIVE • Transelectrica: 2Q22 net profit 44% below our expectations NEUTRAL • Nuclearelectrica: 2Q22 net profit 23% below our expectations • DIGI Comm...
HEADLINES: • Petrol Group: 2022E profit warning issued • OMV Petrom: discussions among political parties to temper the increase in fuel prices • OMV Petrom: Executive Board approves share capital increase NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: CityMesh Mobile JV to build fourth mobile network in Belgium NEUTRAL • Short News (CPS, PEN, SNP)
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • Logo Yazilim: strong tailwinds, solid execution (stays BUY) • Dom Development: 1Q22 - beats vs. both our and the consensus estimates POSITIVE • Petrol Group: 1Q22 review - strong results, driven by growing fuel sales POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: expansion of buyback programme to 6.5m shares, maximum amount of PLN 100m unchanged POSITIVE • Transgaz: transport tariffs to remain unchanged until 30 September 2023 NEGATIVE • Kcell: postpones dividends from 2021 net profit NEGATIVE • Polish ...
HEADLINES: • GTC: 1Q22 - in line, stock cheap, but difficult and uncertain macro may continue to weigh on price • Dom Development: Polish residential - a difficult market environment, but we see value in Dom • Inter Cars: 1Q22 EBITDA 7% below our estimate, on lower EBITDA margin NEGATIVE • Ignitis Group: 1Q22 results review - solid beat, 2022E EBITDA guidance hiked POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 1Q22 preliminary EBITDA 4% above market's expectations NEUTRAL • Bank of Cyprus: 1Q22 - solid qu...
HEADLINES: • Terna Energy: strategically positioned (stays BUY) • Sava Re: slight discount, despite competitive ROE profile (stays HOLD) • mBank: big beat on bottom line, but operating profit simply solid and not as much of a surprise POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: better-than-expected 1Q22 results POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 1Q22 results - small beat, bullish FY22E guidance reiterated POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: stable 1Q22 results, valuation remains attractive NEUTRAL • InPost: 1Q22 beat on stronge...
Sava Re continues to perform well, so we have increased our price target (PT) to EUR 33.5/share. At the same time, however, we maintain our HOLD recommendation, as the potential upside is c.14.3%. We have updated our estimates and brought them into line with the company’s 2022E plan, noting that it is relatively unlikely that Sava Re will be able to repeat the strong performance of 2021. However, we believe the company is likely to continue to report higher ROEs than the peer group, even though ...
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • PCF Group: adjusted EBITDA in line with our forecast; Outriders Worldslayer release at end-June NEUTRAL • Hellenic Bank: FY21 - moving in the right direction • Shoper: management call takeaways - 2022E to focus on growth, rather than margins NEUTRAL • Kernel: 3Q22 trading update NEUTRAL • PGNiG: operating estimates for 1Q22E, no major surprises • Fondul Proprietatea: State could consider offer of new shares in Hidroelectrica after Fondul's offer NEUTRAL • Petrol Group: AGM appro...
EME Equity Market – March 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks mostly in the black, despite the MSCI EM Europe Index losing half of its value. Following its decline in February, the MSCI EM Europe Index lost in March as well, declining by 49.5% in EUR terms and 50.1% in USD terms. Russia’s MOEX Index added 13.2% in EUR terms and 9.4% RUB terms (we note that Russian companies’ GDRs are still suspended for trading). The Turkish ISE30 Index added 8.2% in EUR terms and 13.3% in local curren...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: a different world - taking stock of the consequences • European oil and gas monthly: February 2022 • Benefit Systems: recurrent preliminary 4Q21 slightly above expectations, solid card base recovery POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: 4Q21 preliminary net profit at PLN 105m, 2% below our estimate NEGATIVE • Sava RE: 4Q21 results review - strong performance continued in last quarter, ytd ROE at 15.8% • TCS Group Holding: 4Q21 review • Russian equities: which global com...
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