Top Stories Sector Update | Banking DBS and OCBC benefitted from spectacular surges in wealth management fees of 31% and 53% yoy respectively in 3Q25 as high-net-worth clients deployed their funds in investment products. UOB recognised one-off pre-emptive general allowances of S$615m in 3Q25 to strengthen its general provision coverage from 0.8% to 1.0% and loan loss coverage from 88% to 100%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Influx of safe haven liquidity would continue to keep domestic interest rate...
Greater China Economics | Inflation October CPI turned positive at 0.2% yoy (+0.5ppt), as food deflation eased to -2.9% yoy, with fresh vegetables and fruits recovering, though pork stayed weak. Core CPI inflation rose to a year-high 1.2% yoy, with both goods and services inflation picking up. Notable strength was observed in other products & services and transportation & communication. PPI deflation narrowed to -2.1% yoy, driven by improvements in mining, raw materials, and downstream consumer ...
OCBC saw strong growth in non-interest income in 3Q25. Contribution from wealth management surged 53% yoy. Insurance grew 34% yoy. OCBC has adequate provisioning with loan loss coverage at 160%, the highest in town. Its general provision coverage is healthy 1.0%. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$20.22.
DBS and OCBC benefitted from spectacular surges in wealth management fees of 31% and 53% yoy respectively in 3Q25 as high-net-worth clients deployed their funds in investment products. UOB recognised one-off pre-emptive general allowances of S$615m in 3Q25 to strengthen its general provision coverage from 0.8% to 1.0% and loan loss coverage from 88% to 100%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Influx of safe haven liquidity would continue to keep domestic interest rates depressed. BUY OCBC (Target: S$20.22)...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
Our Alpha Picks portfolio gained 8.5% mom in Oct 25, outperforming the STI’s 3.0%. Strength came from MPM, RSTON and CSE. For Nov 25, we add CIT and ASL as BUYs and introduce SIA as a short candidate. The portfolio remains poised for expected EQDP-driven flows into small-/mid-cap names in the next few months.
Top Stories Sector Update | Banking We expect 3Q25 to be characterised by continued NIM compression, the resurgence of wealth management fees and benign asset quality. We expect net profit of S$2,749m for DBS (-9% yoy, -3% qoq) and S$1,808m for OCBC (-8% yoy, flat qoq). We remain concerned about heightened uncertainties emanating from trade conflicts and a prolonged US government shutdown. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. BUY OCBC (Target: S$20.12), HOLD DBS (Target: S$55.25). Market Spotlight • US st...
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity China’s 3Q25 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% yoy, 9M25 growth to 5.1%. Ytd FAI fell 0.5% yoy, dragged by property FAI (-13.9% ytd yoy). September's industrial production rose 6.5% yoy, but retail sales growth eased to 3.0% yoy. With the stronger-than-expected 9M25 growth, we raise the full-year real GDP growth forecast to 5.0% yoy. That said, further policy support is still needed and we expect proposals for the 15th Five-year Plan to provide further clu...
We expect 3Q25 to be characterised by continued NIM compression, the resurgence of wealth management fees and benign asset quality. We expect net profit of S$2,749m for DBS (-9% yoy, -3% qoq) and S$1,808m for OCBC (-8% yoy, flat qoq). We remain concerned about heightened uncertainties emanating from trade conflicts and a prolonged US government shutdown. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. BUY OCBC (Target: S$20.12), HOLD DBS (Target: S$55.25).
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Staying Ahead And Capturing EQDP Opportunities Our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 4.2% mom in Sep 25, outperforming the STI’s 0.7%. Gains were led by YZJ, VALUE, MPM and CSSC. For Oct 25, we add SCI, LREIT and RSTON, and take profit on BRC and YZJ. We remain well-positioned for upside in small-/mid-cap stocks. Market Spotlight • US stocks ended higher on Thursday. Despite mixed sector performances, the DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all advanced. • The FSSTI gained 7...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s EV sales surged 25% wow in the 39th week of 2025 but slowed to 10.5% yoy amid a high base and anti-involution efforts. Geely and XPeng outperformed, while BYD and Li Auto saw yoy sales declines. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector, with top BUYs on CATL and Geely; we downgrade Ganfeng Lithium from BUY to HOLD with an unchanged target price of HK$40.00, as the stock price has hit our target. Indonesia Economics | Indonesia’s Trade Balance Hits Mu...
Our Alpha Picks portfolio rose 4.2% mom in Sep 25, outperforming the STI’s 0.7%. Gains were led by YZJ, VALUE, MPM and CSSC. For Oct 25, we add SCI, LREIT and RSTON, and take profit on BRC and YZJ. We remain well-positioned for upside in small-/mid-cap stocks.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
• The influx of safe haven liquidity could be structural and persistent, thus continuing to exert downward pressure on banks’ NIM. • We expect the Fed to cut the Fed Funds Rate four times totalling 100bp, bringing it to 3.25%. • Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. BUY OCBC (Target: S$20.40). HOLD DBS (Target: S$54.40).
Greater China Initiation Coverage | Metasurface Technologies Holdings (8637 HK/BUY/HK1.48/Target: HK2.90) Metasurface is set to benefit from robust investment in the semi supply chain. As chip fabrication grows in complexity, more time is required to fabricate wafers and more wafer fabrication equipment is needed. Aerospace engineering is set to drive long-term growth as airline capacity continues to face shortages, forcing airlines to rely on their existing fleets and bo...
Attractive yield differentials. With Singapore government bond yields trending lower, the yield differential between fixed income and equities has narrowed in 2025, thus reinforcing the relative appeal of companies offering high, sustainable dividend payouts. Equity yields in the 4-6% range now offer a compelling pickup versus the 10-year Singapore Government Bond yield (1.8579% as at 4 Sep 25), while also providing potential for capital gains. In our view, this widening yield gap should support...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
Our Alpha Picks portfolio delivered another month of strong performance, rising 11.4% mom in Aug 25 to overwhelm the STI’s 2.3% gain. On a market cap-weighted basis, the portfolio gained 3.2% mom, also ahead of the benchmark by 0.9ppt. For Sep 25, we add BRC for its construction exposure and YZJSGD for its new order flow and inexpensive valuations, while locking in gains on CICT, CD and PROP.
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