Banks delivered resilient earnings in 1Q25 (DBS: +15% qoq, OCBC: +12% qoq) supported by a sequential rebound in non-interest income. Banks have assessed their first-order direct impact from vulnerable sectors to be manageable at 2-3% of total loans. They have also recommitted themselves to their capital management plans announced in Feb 25. BUY OCBC (Target: S$19.30) for its focus on ASEAN. HOLD DBS (Target: S$45.45) for its 2025 yield of 6.9%. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking 1Q25 round-up: First-order direct impact assessed to be manageable. Upgrade to OVERWEIGHT. Results Civmec (CVL SP/HOLD/S$0.815/Target:S$0.80) 3QFY25: Results in line; outlook remains challenging as project delays extend. Marco Polo Marine (MPM SP/BUY/S$0.044/Target:S$0.066) 1HFY25: Earnings in line; poised for growth in...
OCBC delivered a net profit of S$1,883m in 1Q25 (-5% yoy), supported by broad-based growth in non-interest income (fee income: +14% yoy, insurance: +6% yoy and net trading income: +7% yoy). Management is committed to its capital management plan to return S$2.5b to shareholders, comprising: a) special dividends amounting to 10% of net profit for 2024 and 2025 (S$1.5b), and b) share buybacks over two years (S$1.0b). OCBC provides a dividend yield of 6.2% for 2025. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$19....
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls: Add Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit on JBM Healthcare and CR Land. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Apr 25: Remove ICBP, EXCL and MIKA; add BBTN and GOTO. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Capitalising On Sentiment Turnaround: Our Apr 25 Alpha Picks underperformed. May 25 picks: Duopharma, Gamuda, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME dotCom, MYEG, Nationgate, Northeast Group and RHB Bank. SINGAPO...
INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Apr 25 Remove ICBP, EXCL, and MIKA; add BBTN and GOTO. MALAYSIA Sector Property Amid tariff overhang concerns, we favour companies with clear earnings visibility, solid exposure to affordable housing, and clear re-rating catalysts. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Update Axiata (AXIATA MK/BUY/RM2.09/Target: RM2.50) ...
Despite significant market volatility, our Alpha Picks portfolio outperformed in Apr 25, falling slightly by 0.8% mom on an equal-weighted basis and beating the STI by 2.7ppt. Furthermore, on a market cap-weighted basis, our portfolio dropped by 2.1% mom but still beat the STI by a respectable 1.4ppt. For May 25, we add SSG and CENT and remove CSSC, CSE and YZJSGD.
We should start to witness NIM compression at 6bp qoq for DBS and 7bp qoq for OCBC in 1Q25 due to a steep fall in SORA by 51bp to 2.56%. Fee income is expected to grow 10% yoy for DBS and 9% yoy for OCBC, driven by wealth management. We expect net profit of S$2,746m for DBS (-7% yoy, +9% qoq) and S$1,874m for OCBC (-5% yoy, +11% qoq). Asset quality is stable now but could deteriorate in 2H25. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. BUY OCBC (Target: S$16.90). HOLD DBS (Target: S$40.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking 1Q25 results preview: Calm before the storm. Update Singapore Airlines (SIA SP/HOLD/S$6.35/Target: S$6.22) Expect yoy softer 4QFY25 earnings; FY26 to benefit from weak fuel prices. Maintain HOLD. MONTHLY TECHNICAL - INDICES OUTLOOK FTSE Straits Times Index (STI IND): Price remains bullish
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking Flexible adaption in response to disapproval from treasury markets. Upgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Update Centurion Corp (CENT SP/BUY/S$1.12/Target: S$1.48) A safe harbour amid the tragic tariffs. Maintain BUY. TRADERS' CORNER Yangzijiang Financial Holding (YZJFH SP): Trading BUY AEM Holdings (AEM SP): Trading SELL
The Trump Administration made two consecutive concessions: a) a 90-day pause for countries with reciprocal tariffs above the baseline rate of 10%, and b) exemption for electronics products imported from China. Trump has shown himself to be pragmatic enough to accommodate the concerns of businesses and consumers. Upgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. HOLD DBS (Target: S$40.00). Upgrade OCBC to BUY (Target: S$16.90). DBS and OCBC provide attractive 2025 yields of 7.9% and 6.7% respectively.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Add CR Beer, Desay, JBM Healthcare, JD Logistics, Minth, WuXi App Tech and Xiaomi Corp to our BUY list. Take profit on AIA, Hansoh Pharma, JD and Zijin Mining. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25: Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Pockets of Opportunities: Our Mar 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Apr 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Duopharma, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
The selloff driven by the US’ unprecedented and perplexing tariff plans has liberated many investors of profits this year. Given the fluidity of market conditions, we highlight a number of domestic-focused stocks such as CENT, CD, DFI, HLA, PANU, PROP, RFMD, SSG and SIE as well as Singapore-focused REITS such as CDLHT, FEHT, FCT, KREIT, LREIT and PREIT. In addition, the MAS’ equity market review should inject much needed liquidity in 2H25. We lower our STI target to 3,720 (previously 4,115).
GREATER CHINA Results Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH/BUY/Rmb59.82/Target: Rmb71.30) 2024: Net profit misses but core profit in line due to lawsuit provision; focus on off-premise channel expansion in 2025. MALAYSIA Sector Consumer ESG assessment of the top 10 largest F&B companies; Nestle comes out tops. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Update Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK/HOLD/RM4.75/Target: RM4.40) Advise taking profit...
The Trump Administration’s across-the-board reciprocal tariff is unprecedented and would trigger retaliation by the EU and China. Asset quality would be affected by the slowdown in trade, which would create turmoil and job losses in the manufacturing sector. We cut our 2026 net profit forecasts for DBS and OCBC by 13% after factoring in higher credit costs and anaemic loan growth. Downgrade to UNDERWEIGHT. SELL DBS (Target: S$40.00). HOLD OCBC (Target: S$16.85).
Driven by our small-mid cap picks, our Alpha Picks portfolio outperformed in Mar 25, increasing 3.4% mom on an equal-weighted basis and beating the STI by 1.4ppt. For 1Q25, our portfolio did not do as well as it underperformed the STI by 5.1ppt on an equal-weighted basis, due largely to the banking sector which reported strong 2024 results.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: Strong Beat In Mar 25; Adding OTEK, VALUE, DFI And Removing CD, CENT, RSTON, UMS Our Alpha Picks portfolio bettered the STI in Mar 25, increasing 3.4% mom on an equal-weighted basis. Adding OTEK, VALUE, DFI and Removing CD, CENT, RSTON, UMS. TRADERS' CORNER DFI Retail Group Holdings (DFI SP): Trading BUY Sembcorp Industries (SCI SP): Trading BUY
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls: Add Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Desay, JD Logistics, Mengniu, Plover Bay and Tencent. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Feb 25: Our picks are BBNI, BBRI, MIKA, EXCL, KLBF, JSMR and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Unprecedented Combo Of Disappointments: Our Feb 25 Alpha Picks sorely underperformed. Mar 25 picks: 99SpeedMart, Alpha IVF, KPJ Healthcare, MrDIY, MYEG, RHB Ba...
Driven by a strong performance from the banks sector, the STI was up 1.0% mom in Feb 25, beating our Alpha Picks portfolio on an equal-weighted basis which fell 3.9% mom. Our Alpha Picks portfolio performed slightly better on a market cap-weighted basis, falling 3.6% mom, with two stocks in particular weighing on the performance.
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