Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Trump Tweets, Portfolio Bleeds Our Alpha Picks portfolio declined 8.6% mom in Mar 26, lagging the STI amid a risk-off environment and heightened policy uncertainty. Weakness was led by property and cyclical names, while OCBC and China Aviation Oil provided limited support. We add NTTDCR and First Resources and take profit on ASL and CSE, while remaining focused on high-conviction picks with clear catalysts. Market Spotlight • US stocks were higher on Wed...
Our Alpha Picks portfolio declined 8.6% mom in Mar 26, lagging the STI amid a risk-off environment and heightened policy uncertainty. Weakness was led by property and cyclical names, while OCBC and China Aviation Oil provided limited support. We add NTTDCR and First Resources and take profit on ASL and CSE, while remaining focused on high-conviction picks with clear catalysts.
Top Stories Sector Update | Banking Bond yields have risen as conflicts in the Middle East create uncertainties over the outlook for inflation. We now expect the Fed to pause rate cuts and keep the Fed Funds Rate stable at 3.5% in 2026. The OECD forecasts headline inflation in the US spiking temporarily to 4.2% in 2026, before falling to 1.6% in 2027. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top pick is DBS (BUY/Target: S$67.55) for its attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We also like OCBC (BUY/Target: S$...
Top Stories Strategy | Singapore Stock Picks In A Turbulent Market With war clouds, an oil shock, and market volatility, we focus on Singapore’s defensive sectors and quality blue-chip names. Deployment of funds from MAS’ Equity Market Development Programme could provide some respite in March and April. Key stock picks are CLAR, CLI, CIT, DBS, DFI, KEP, SE, ST, YZJSGD, ASL, CAREIT, CSE, DELFI, FEH, IFAST, UGAI and VALUE. Market Spotlight US stocks were higher on Monday, with all indexes risi...
Top Stories Strategy | Monthly Market Radar Singapore equities extended gains in February, with the STI rising 1.8% to near the 5,000 level after reaching a record high above 5,040. Market sentiment was supported by steady manufacturing expansion and selective corporate strength, including Yangzijiang Shipbuilding’s strong earnings. Global markets remained cautious amid AI-related concerns, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised risks of higher oil prices. Market Spotlight • US s...
Greater China Economics | China China set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, in line with expectations, while maintaining a 4% fiscal deficit ratio. Fiscal policy remains the main growth driver, supported by Rmb4.4t in local government special bonds and Rmb1.3t in ultra-long treasury bonds, while monetary policy stays accommodative. Policy priorities focus on AI+, New Quality Productive Forces, industrial upgrading, and targeted consumption support, alongside welfare improvements and ...
Singapore equities extended gains in February, with the STI rising 1.8% to near the 5,000 level after reaching a record high above 5,040. Market sentiment was supported by steady manufacturing expansion and selective corporate strength, including Yangzijiang Shipbuilding’s strong earnings. Global markets remained cautious amid AI-related concerns, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised risks of higher oil prices.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in February, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 2.8% mom and 5.6% mom, respectively. March is expected to be volatile, as there are signs that the Middle East conflict could last for a while. We focus on names which have greater domestic exposure, adding Anta, China Duty Free, FII, Futu, Kuaishou and Tencent to our BUY list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: Rotating To Commodities Amid M...
Our Alpha Picks built on January’s momentum, outperforming the STI on price- and equal-weighted bases. For Mar 26, we add HUAGL, KEP and ST, and remove CSSC, DFI, LREIT and RGL, rotating into higher-conviction names with clearer earnings visibility and valuation support amid higher volatility. The portfolio remains positioned to capture potential EQDPdriven inflows into small- and mid-cap stocks.
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Seazen’s C-REIT application signals improving financing channels. Sector fundamentals remain weak, with 2M26 developers’ contract sales and major cities’ new-home data still under pressure, despite relatively resilient secondary transactions. Second-hand property prices modestly recovered mom in four Tier 1 cities. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT but see potential policy after the March NPC. Our top pick is CR Land, trading at 0.65x 26PB, 0.6SD below mean...
Banks’ 4Q25 results were characterised by stability in NIM and sustainable growth in wealth management. In terms of asset quality, OCBC was more resilient, while DBS and UOB saw weaknesses from exposures to commercial real estate. Banks will consider returning capital to shareholders through special dividends if they cannot complete their share buyback programmes. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Our top pick is DBS for its attractive 2026 dividend yield of 5.6%. We also like OCBC for its strategic shift to...
Top Stories Company Results | Delfi (DELFI SP/BUY/S$0.945/Target: S$1.12) Delfi’s 2025 revenue of US$500m (-0.5% yoy) missed expectations, while core profit fell 20% yoy, despite beating our forecast on lower selling costs. A softer 4Q25 reflects Indonesia sales weakness (-12% yoy), although own brands’ remained resilient (+5% yoy). Gross margin compressed to 26.5% but easing cocoa prices support recovery. Upgrade to BUY with a raised target price of S$1.12. Company Results | Food Empire H...
Greater China Strategy | Hong Kong Budget 2026-27 The 2026-27 Budget marks a shift from deficit spending to structural consolidation, projecting a HK$22.1b surplus (0.6% of GDP) from last year’s HK$67.0b deficit (2% of GDP), which will lift fiscal reserves from 8 months to 10 months of government expenditure. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.5-3.5% yoy, with CPI at 1.7% yoy. Policy prioritises Northern Metropolis and AI investment, while property measures have turned more prudent, raising luxur...
NIM expanded 2bp qoq to 1.86% in 4Q25, reflecting stabilisation. Contribution from wealth management increased 26% yoy, driven by AUM expansion of 15% yoy and net new money of S$6b. OCBC has embarked on a strategic shift to capture growth at its twin wealth hubs of Singapore and Hong Kong and deepen its domestic presence within ASEAN in Malaysia and Indonesia. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$24.85.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Singapore equities delivered a strong January performance, with the STI rising 5.6% to fresh record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions that drove flight-to-safety flows. Manufacturing activity remained in mild expansion, led by electronics and AI-related demand. Market/corporate catalysts during the month include REIT earnings, IPO interest in Catalist and continued strength in gold-linked counters.
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
Our Alpha Picks outperformed the STI on a price-weighted and market cap-weighted basis but underperformed on an equalweighted basis. For Feb 26, we add CAO, RGL, HLA, and PROP and remove CLAR, KEP, MPM, and RSTON. The portfolio continues to be well-positioned ahead of expected EQDP-driven flows into small- and mid-cap stocks.
The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair has strengthened the Fed’s credibility in fighting inflation, leading to an abrupt unwind for safe haven assets. Liquidity exiting safe haven assets, such as the Singapore dollar, could lead to firmer domestic interest rates in 2026. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. The Fed regaining its credibility is supportive of our thesis that banks benefit from the Goldilocks economy. BUY DBS (Target: S$68.95) and OCBC (Target: S$23.65). DBS provides an attractive 20...
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