Indutrade (Hold, TP: SEK300.00) - Consistency in action

We forecast 4% organic growth YOY for Q1, partly driven by a strong trend in Life Science. As the new organisational structure implemented in 2024 begins to take effect, we expect growth to gradually improve further (organic and acquired). We have cut our 2025–2026e EBITA by 4–3% and reiterate our HOLD and SEK300 target price.

A Constructive quarter

Indutrade (Hold, TP: SEK300.00) - Laying the groundwork

Sales growth was 7% (versus consensus of 5%), with a 2% beat versus consensus on EBITA and 6% on EPS. The higher EBITA was driven by improvement in Process, Energy & Water (PE&W) and Technology & Systems Solutions (T&SS), as well as a recovery in Infrastructure & Construction (I&C). The group EBITA margin was flat YOY at 14.6%, in line with our estimate. We have raised our 2025–2026e EBITA by 1% and our target price to SEK300 (290), while we reiterate our HOLD.

Solid report with better growth

Heads-up for report 30 January

Serial acquirers: M&A the main excitement

Time to pick up a high-quality laggard

Indutrade (Hold, TP: SEK290.00) - Adapting for future growth

We forecast organic growth of only 1% YOY for Q4 and a gradual improvement in 2025 on the back of falling interest rates and the implementation of the new organisational structure. Following a change of analyst, we have made minor divisional estimate changes and lowered our group 2025–2026e EBITA by 2%. We have downgraded Indutrade to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK290 (350).

Serial acq Q3 recap: Quality shines also in darker times

Life Science the growth engine in softer Q3

3% adj. EBITA miss, but also lower orders and sales

Serial acquirers: Expectations up, slower cycle

Life Science improvement in focus

Q3 report Friday , 25 October. '24e-'26e EBITA down 1/2/1%; 5% CAGR '23-'26e. Keep HOLD, TP SEK 340 (345).

Indutrade (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Continued strong momentum

A strong performance in Q2 included sales 4% above our estimate and a 9% beat on adj. EBITA, with strong outperformances by Life Science and Technology Systems & Solutions (TS&S). The group adj. EBITA margin was flat YOY at 14.8%, 70bp above our estimate. We have raised our 2024–2025e EBITA by 6–5% and our target price to SEK350 (305), and reiterate our BUY.

Back on track

Solid margin rebound behind 9% EBITA beat, '24e-'26e EBITA up 5-3%; 5% CAGR '23-'26e, keep HOLD, TP SEK 345 (310).

9% EBITA beat, strong across the board

Serial acquirers: M&A in the driver's seat

M&A upside, organic rebound H2'24 and margin resilience. '24e-'26e EBITA/EPS roughly unchanged, '24 likely a slower year. Reinvestment & ROIC motivate 23x EBITA, ADDT/LAGR up to BUY.

Cost headwinds to gradually improve

Q2 report due Thursday, 18 July, '24e-'26e EBITA up 1%; 4% CAGR '23-'26e, keep HOLD, TP SEK 310 (255)

The power of M&A compounding

Indutrade - Initiation of coverage - Compounding reinvestments

With a history of reinvesting FCF into EPS growth and high capital returns, we believe Indutrade’s capital allocation stands out among Swedish industrial M&A compounders. Growing focus on organic growth combined with a proven acquisition agenda warrants a premium valuation, in our view, and we initiate coverage with a BUY and SEK305 target price.