HEADLINES: • Otokar: weak set of 3Q24 results NEGATIVE • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 3Q24 highlights – decent quarter, with revised guidance POSITIVE • Brisa: profitability should return in 4Q, on October price hikes NEUTRAL • Elm: strong 3Q24 financial results POSITIVE • Jahez: strong 3Q24 results POSITIVE • Alkaloid AD Skopje: strong 3Q24 sales and a qoq margin rebound POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 October-3 November) • Magyar Telekom: reaches agreement with the trade uni...
EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
It has been a busy week for bean counters in the video games industry, with the release of global console sales data for September, US software and hardware markets for September, and weekly software sales for UK, Japan and Steam. These figures seem to paint a similar picture: hardware sales are bad, though not as bad as over the summer, while software sales are okay. Pelham Smithers elaborates.
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 3Q24 results – top-down small beat POSITIVE • Kety: wants to increase its share in the French market NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: EGM announced to ratify a Chinese contract NEUTRAL • Shoper: 24% yoy growth expected in 3Q24E adjusted EBITDA (due on 24 October) • Bank Millennium: 3Q24E preview (due on 29 October) • Bank Handlowy: 3Q24E preview (due on 13 November) • Vercom: 3Q24E results preview – 29% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 13 November) • CD Projekt: 3Q24E EBITDA up 35%...
EME Equity Market - September 2024 EME indices mostly in the red in September; rebound in Greece. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 2.0% in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms in September. The Greek ASE Index was the best performer in our region, advancing 1.4% mom in EUR terms. Muted performances were seen in Czechia and Hungary (+0.3% and +0.2% mom, respectively in EUR terms), with declines in Poland, Romania and Turkey (-3.6%, -2.9% and -1.5% mom, respectively in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: expensive after the rally (downgraded to SELL) • 11 bit studios: interview with CEO – “very satisfied” with Frostpunk 2 pre-orders POSITIVE • MOL: secures new agreements for crude supply via Druzhba POSITIVE • Allegro: 2Q24E results preview – 28% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 19 September) • Short News (CEZ)
We have downgraded CD Projekt (CDR) to SELL (from Hold), on valuation grounds. We have revised up our 12M price target (PT) to PLN 157 (from PLN 120), mostly to reflect our increased price point assumption for AAA games in the mid-term, corresponding with rising games’ development budgets. We also implement slightly more optimistic assumptions for the back-catalogue sales and the Cyberpunk sequel (Orion) sales volumes. At the same time, we note that CDR’s share price has rallied by 50% since our...
HEADLINES: • Duna House: loan ranger, with dividends to boot (BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (2-8 September) • Huuuge Games: 2Q24 earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: August sales growth decelerates to just 7% yoy NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: class action lawsuit in the US regarding technical solutions used by GOG NEUTRAL • PCF Group: termination of credit facilities at Bank Pekao NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: delivers first part of FTTH network in Spain NEUTRAL
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
HEADLINES: • DIGI Communications: heavyweight European telco champion (upgraded to BUY) • PZU: posts PLN 1.19bn of net profit in 2Q24; results affected by higher combined ratio in P&C NEUTRAL • Motor Oil Hellas: 2Q24 results POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 2Q24 EBITDA 4-7% above expectations; Polaris to enter production phase “very soon” NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: 2Q24 EBITDA 8% above our forecast, but in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 2Q24 – in line, at first glance NEUTRAL • CA Immo: 2Q24 i...
HEADLINES: • Polish IT: CVC and Filipiak family plan to announce tender for 34.81% stake in Comarch, at PLN 315.4/share POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: Hungary – budget correction phase not over • Bank Pekao: lowers guidance on cost of credit holidays extension NEUTRAL • Borouge: 2Q24E results preview (due on 31 July) NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: 2Q24E preview (due on 1 August) • Erste Bank: 2Q24E preview (due on 2 August) • CD Projekt: 2Q24E EBITDA up 57% yoy, but down 25% qoq (due on 28 August) • ...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • VIGO Photonics: 1Q24 – miss on adjusted EBITDA and bottom line NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: 1Q24 EBITDA 5-7% above our and the market's expectations, no major surprises from the earnings call NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: 1Q24 adjusted EBITDA in line with both our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Motor Oil Hellas: 1Q24 results – CCS EBITDA in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Teknosa: higher financing costs weighed on the bottom line in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Kazatomprom: 1Q24 results – lower E...
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