Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR75.00) - Focus on orders and outlook

Konecranes (KCR FH, Buy) - Focus on orders and outlook (19 pages)

Earnings quality kick continues

Finnish Industrials (, ) - Earnings quality kick continues (32 pages)

Who stands to benefit?

A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR75.00) - Quality at a discount

We have raised our 2025–2026e clean EPS by 2%, and reiterate our BUY and EUR75 target price. We continue to see Konecranes as attractively valued, with strong and improving earnings quality and financials.

Quality rise warrants multiples uplift

Our analysis shows that Finnish industrials have improved their earnings quality over the past 10 years, supported by expanding Service profitability and shares of total sales and earnings. We believe this together with improved stability, visibility and financials should be better rewarded in the valuations. We have a positive sector stance and highlight Konecranes, Metso and Valmet on potential multiples expansion.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR75.00) - Much of the same into 2025e

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c1% on average and reiterate our BUY and EUR75 target price. Our Q4e orders are a bit above consensus, but 2025e orders and clean EBITA are close.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR75.00) - Solid Q3 despite Service miss

We reiterate our BUY and EUR75 target price on minor estimate changes. The Q3 results were solid, with the negatives within Service offset by the positives in Port Solutions (PS), which included one unannounced large order, and Industrial Equipment (IE). We continue to view the earnings direction and valuation as attractive.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR75.00) - Sales guidance raised

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c2% on average following the recently (12 September) revised 2024 guidance that sales should increase YOY (previously “flat to increase”). We expect solid Q3 orders and clean EBITA. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to EUR75 (70).

Cargotec Oyj - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis

Summary Cargotec Oyj - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights Cargotec Oyj (Cargotec) is an industrial goods and machinery company. Its services include on-road load handling solutions, marine cargo flow solutions and offshore solutions, and heavy industrial material...

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR70.00) - Strong quality lift continues

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c9% on average and our target price to EUR70 (60). In our view, the impressive earnings and financials quality lift – with further potential – is attractively valued at a 2025e EV/EBIT of c9.4x. We reiterate our BUY.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR60.00) - Recent increase in 2024 guidance

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c8% on average following the recent (17 June) increase in 2024 guidance for improvement in the clean EBITA margin YOY (earlier ‘flat to improve’). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to EUR60 (55). We expect to focus on orders, clean EBITA, and the outlook (which we expect to be maintained) with the Q2 results. Consensus is not yet available following the updated guidance.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR55.00) - No drama

We have made limited changes to our 2024–2026 forecasts following an overall neutral Q1 (minor order miss but small profit beat versus our expectations), and an unchanged market outlook and 2024 guidance. We reiterate our BUY and EUR55 target price.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR55.00) - Slightly cautious ahead of Q1 report

For the Q1 results, our focus is on orders, profitability and the market outlook, as we are slightly cautious due to tough comparables, a more optimistic consensus and the recently strong share price. However, we continue to like the overall case, and have increased our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c3% on average. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to EUR55 (50).

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR50.00) - On the right track

The solid Q4 orders and earnings and 2024 outlook and guidance support our view that Konecranes continues to move in the right direction. We have raised our 2024–2025e clean EPS by c5% on average and our target price to EUR50 (45), and reiterate our BUY.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR45.00) - 2024 set to be similar to 2023

We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to EUR45 (40) after increasing our 2024–2025e clean EPS by 4% on average. In the Q4 report, we will focus on orders and the 2024 guidance, which we believe may be for flat to slightly growing sales and a flat clean EBITA margin YOY, coming as a positive surprise to consensus (10.8% clean EBITA margin versus 11.5% in 2023e).

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR40.00) - Port orders troughed in Q3

Following mixed Q3 results (earnings beat, orders miss), we have made minor 2023–2025e clean EBITA changes (c1%). We continue to see earnings-quality improvement, and an attractive dividend yield and valuation. We reiterate our BUY and EUR40 target price.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR40.00) - Focus on orders and profitability

In the Q3 results, we plan to focus on orders, the outlook and the clean EBITA margin. We expect orders to decline but margins to expand YOY. We have made minor group 2023–2025e changes but have lowered our target price to EUR40 (43). We reiterate our BUY.

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Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR43.00) - Demand set to slow

We have lowered our 2024–2025e operating EPS by c2% on average, but reiterate our BUY and EUR43 target price. Slowing demand is reflected in our estimates and consensus, and the valuation continues to appear attractive to us.

Northern Lights