reports
- Tomi Railo
- ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
- Åsne Holsen
- Bengt Jonassen
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK140.00) - Q1e slightly below consensus
We have made only limited estimate changes (except for an accounting change for the treatment of write-offs in associates) and are slightly below consensus on Q1e revenues, service revenues, adj. EBITDA, net profit and FCF. With Nordics opex cuts looking set to be back-end loaded this year, we expect Q1 to be a relatively uneventful quarter. We will look for more clarity on lower-quality cash flow tailwinds with regard to Telenor’s ability to cover its dividends with FCF before M&A this year, wh...
- Simen Mortensen
Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations
Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.
- Tomi Railo
Telenor's Subsidiary KNL Signs Framework Agreement with the Finnish an...
Telenor's Subsidiary KNL Signs Framework Agreement with the Finnish and Swedish Defence Forces (Stockholm, 2 April, 2025) Telenor expands into the defence industry: Subsidiary KNL signs a ten-year contract with the Finnish and Swedish Defence Forces through NORDEFCO (Nordic Defence Cooperation) for advanced military communication technology. In a time marked by cyber threats and geopolitical tensions, Telenor has increased its presence in the defence industry. Through its Finnish subsidiary KNL, Telenor now provides critical technology for modern military operations. Pioneering Military C...
Telenors datterselskap KNL signerer rammeavtale med det finske og sven...
Telenors datterselskap KNL signerer rammeavtale med det finske og svenske forsvaret (Stockholm, 2. april 2025) Telenor forsterker sin posisjon i forsvarsindustrien: Datterselskapet KNL sikrer seg en tiårig kontrakt med det finske og svenske forsvaret gjennom NORDEFCO (Nordic Defence Cooperation) innen banebrytende militær kommunikasjonsteknologi I en tid der cybertrusler og geopolitiske spenninger preger verdensbildet, har Telenor utvidet sin tilstedeværelse i forsvarsindustrien. Gjennom det finske teknologiselskapet KNL har Telenor sikret seg en teknologi som kan vise seg å bli avgjørende...
- ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
- Oscar Rönnkvist
- Øystein Elton Lodgaard
- Simon Granath
- ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
- Herman Caspersen
- Oscar Rönnkvist
- Øystein Elton Lodgaard
- Simen Mortensen
Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK160.00) - Seasonal low despite mild winter
Q1 is typically the low season for Veidekke on Nordic winter effects and a seasonal EBIT margin decline in the Infrastructure division (including asphalt). Despite the mild winter in the Nordics in Q1, we expect the positive impact to be limited as weather effects tend to affect Q4 more than Q1. We expect zero EPS for Q1. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK160 target price.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
A-rated TMT credit investments/Better credits at similar spreads
This report updates credit investors on opportunities in the single-A TMT space. We argue that the notes of Relx, Swisscom, and ASML look attractive. The notes of SAP and Telenor look to trade at fair value. We provide a summary of our general findings, followed by company descriptions.
Jottacloud and Telenor Software Lab Merge to Build a Strong Norwegian ...
Jottacloud and Telenor Software Lab Merge to Build a Strong Norwegian Challenger in Cloud Storage Oslo, March 19, 2025 – Growing geopolitical tensions have driven European consumers to seek alternatives to international technology services. Today, Telenor and Jotta announce the merger of their cloud storage businesses, forming an all-Norwegian alternative to global players. “Most of us store our private photos on the cloud, and many are now questioning the security of data stored abroad. By merging the Norwegian cloud storage companies Jotta AS and Telenor Software Lab, we are creating a ...
Jottacloud og Telenors Min Sky slås sammen og skaper en solid utfordre...
Jottacloud og Telenors Min Sky slås sammen og skaper en solid utfordrer innen skylagring Oslo, 19. mars 2025 – Økt geopolitisk spenning har ført til at flere europeiske forbrukere søker alternativer til globale teknologitjenester. Nå slår Telenor og Jotta sammen sine skylagringsselskaper og etablerer et helnorsk alternativ til de internasjonale markedsaktørene. - De fleste av oss lagrer private bilder i skyen, og mange begynner nå å stille spørsmål ved sikkerheten til data som lagres i utlandet. Ved å slå sammen de norske skylagringsselskapene Jotta AS og Telenor Software Lab etablerer vi ...
- Tomi Railo
- ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
- Herman Caspersen
- Oscar Rönnkvist
- Øystein Elton Lodgaard
- Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Telenor (Hold, TP: NOK140.00) - Upgrade to HOLD
While Telenor reported decent Q4 results, and the new management issued clear communication on near-term priorities in terms of FCF, we see a risk the guided dividend-covering FCF before M&A for 2025 is somewhat reliant on lower-quality tailwinds related to working capital and taxes. However, we have upgraded to HOLD (SELL) and raised our target price to NOK140 (125), seeing few near-term downside catalysts and being in line with consensus on 2025–2026e FCF before M&A post-estimate revisions.
- Mattias Holmberg
Who stands to benefit?
A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...
UPM UPM-KYMMENE OYJ
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
FLS FLSMIDTH & CO. A/S
KEMIRA KEMIRA OYJ
ROCK B ROCKWOOL INTERNATIONAL A/S CLASS B
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
KCR KONECRANES OYJ
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
KALMAR KALMAR
- Simen Mortensen
Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK160.00) - DPS beat, but valuation getting fair
The reported Q4 EPS was 5% below our forecast, but 3% above when adjusted for a Swedish goodwill write-down. The company proposed a NOK9 DPS for 2024, given its strong net cash position. We have made minor forecast changes, but as we publish 2027 estimates, we have rolled forward our valuation, and raised our target price to NOK160 (155) but downgraded to HOLD (BUY).
- ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
- Åsne Holsen
- Bengt Jonassen
- ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
- Åsne Holsen
- Bengt Jonassen
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