Expert speaker call: latent market share gains

XXL ASA: 3 directors

Three Directors at XXL ASA sold 40,572,464 shares at 10.000NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 89/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Telenor ASA: 1 director

A director at Telenor ASA bought 3,247 shares at 154.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

True EBITDA flat q-o-q, but above ABGSC

Weak Q1, but strong momentum towards 2026

Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK150.00) - Q1 was a supportive non-event

Q1 EBIT was NOK-43m, slightly below our forecast, with low seasonal profits due to winter effects in the asphalt operations. This is a seasonally insignificant quarter for the company due to the winter season, and, for context, we expect 2025 EBIT of NOK1.7bn. Order intake and backlog were the Q1 strong points. With the results and commentary supportive of our earnings forecasts, we have made minor estimate changes on the group level and reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NOK15...

Veidekke ASA: 1 director

A director at Veidekke ASA bought 2,200 shares at 147.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK142.00) - Mixed set of results

While Telenor reported decent Q1 headline results adjusted for a one-off VAT provision in Norway, slightly above consensus and our estimates, the FCF beat was seemingly driven by lower-quality transitory tailwinds, leaving us still uncertain about its ability to cover its dividends with underlying FCF before M&A this year and in 2026. Thus, given our view of a stretched company and sector valuation, we reiterate our SELL, while we have raised our target price to NOK142 (140).

PTP below expectations offset by strong order intake

Stretched valuation and likely slowdown ahead

Telenor (Buy, TP: NOK 183, +17%) Q1 25: Strong results support contin...

Telenor has reported a good set of Q1 numbers, with SR c0.5% ahead of consensus and EBITDA in line; 2025 guidance was re-iterated, which is now in line with consensus expectations, but we think this could be raised later in the year if the further OpEx efficiencies management are expecting are realised.

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Telenor, Heimstaden Bostad, Castellum

Telecom - Telenor reports good 1Q25 results

Nordics above, but other segments below

XXL ASA (Hold, TP: NOK11.00) - Encouraging LFL growth

The Q1 results were below expectations, but we find the positive LFL growth encouraging amid challenging winter conditions and years of consecutive negative LFL growth. We have reinstated our recommendation at HOLD (NO REC) and target price at NOK11 (N/A), as the earnings trend remains subdued and near-term multiples and financial risk are high. However, this is partly offset by Frasers' NOK10 per share bid for the company.

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Q1 below, but back to growth

We consider this a slightly negative report for XXL, including figures below expectations despite revenue growth in a quarter with challenging winter conditions. We expect consensus 2025e EBITDA to come down 3–5% and find a slight negative share price reaction warranted.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR75.00) - Holding up nicely

We reiterate our BUY and EUR75 target price after tweaking our estimates following the Q1 results (better orders, and close but mixed earnings divisionally). We continue to like Konecranes’ quality and valuation.

Entering 2025 with a strong portfolio

Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK140.00) - Q1e slightly below consensus

We have made only limited estimate changes (except for an accounting change for the treatment of write-offs in associates) and are slightly below consensus on Q1e revenues, service revenues, adj. EBITDA, net profit and FCF. With Nordics opex cuts looking set to be back-end loaded this year, we expect Q1 to be a relatively uneventful quarter. We will look for more clarity on lower-quality cash flow tailwinds with regard to Telenor’s ability to cover its dividends with FCF before M&A this year, wh...