Greater China Company Results | Yum China Holdings, Inc (9987 HK/NOT RATED/HK$392.40) In 4Q25, YUMC’s total revenue reached US$2,823m, up 9% yoy. Total system sales grew 7% yoy, with a 3% increase in same-store sales. Operating profit rose 25% yoy to US$187m, with operating margin at 6.6% (+80bp). For 1Q26, management targets positive SSS. It aims to maintain flat yoy restaurant margin and operating profit margin on a high base. For 2026, it expects to open more than 1,900 net new stores, wi...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Company Update | PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP TB/BUY/Bt108.50/Target: Bt136.00) We expect PTTEP’s 4Q25 net profit to reach Bt16.6b, up 31% qoq. Core profit is projected to edge up qoq, supported by higher sales volumes and lower unit costs, which should be sufficient to offset the decline in ASP. As a result, we forecast 2025 net profit at Bt59.4b, down 25% yoy. In our view, PTTEP remains an attractive dividend play, with an expected 2H25 dividend of Bt4.40/share. We maintain BUY with...
Top Stories Company Results | Aeon Thana Sinsap (Thailand) (AEONTS TB/HOLD/Bt102.50/Target: Bt110.00) AEONTS posted a 3QFY26 net profit of Bt618m, down 22% yoy and 22% qoq, missing consensus expectations by 14%. The NPL ratio increased from 5.2% to 5.5% in 3QFY26. Provision expenses grew 10% yoy and 4% qoq. Credit costs rose 34bp qoq to 880bp in 3QFY26. We reiterate our cautious view on AEONTS' credit cost outlook, similar to the previous quarter’s view. Downgrade to HOLD with a lower target ...
Greater China Sector Update | Healthcare The sector experienced a fruitful year of innovation in 2025, and we expect globalisation and improving operating efficiency to continue to drive rapid earnings growth for drug innovators and CRO leaders from 2026 onwards. Seeing strong online demand, internet healthcare players are likely to sustain solid revenue and earnings expansion in 2026. We also anticipate that domestic medical device manufacturers will experience a gradual sales growth recove...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
Company Update | PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP TB/BUY/Bt106.00/Target: Bt136.00) PTTEP announced a five-year capex plan for 2026-30 of US$33.3b. PTTEP expects average sales volume growth of 3.5% per year, while in 2026, sales are expected to increase by 9% qoq, partially mitigating the impact from expected lower selling prices in line with oil prices. We maintain a positive view on core earnings in 4Q25, driven by higher sales volume and lower unit costs. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt13...
Top Stories Company Update | PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP TB/BUY/Bt106.00/Target: Bt136.00) PTTEP announced a five-year capex plan for 2026-30 of US$33.3b. PTTEP expects average sales volume growth of 3.5% per year, while in 2026, sales are expected to increase by 9% qoq, partially mitigating the impact from expected lower selling prices in line with oil prices. We maintain a positive view on core earnings in 4Q25, driven by higher sales volume and lower unit costs. Maintain BUY. Targe...
Greater China Small/Mid Cap Highlights | Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK/BUY/HK$5.90/Target: HK$7.60) We held a pre-blackout call with Plover Bay. In 2H25, growth momentum continued across all markets and management saw growing demand from new verticals. Meanwhile, subscription take-up rates continued to improve on enhanced software features and organic growth. Plover Bay has seen strengthened brand awareness for its Peplink routers since its collaboration with Starlink in Jan 24, and will cont...
Greater China Company Results | ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$83.85/Target: HK$104.00) ASMPT’s 3Q25 print missed expectations on a weaker product mix and one-off restructuring costs. Revenue was largely in line with the mid-point of its guidance, but gross margin was below expectations at 35.7% due to changes in product mix and inventory write-off from the restructuring. Nevertheless, ASMPT reported solid progress with TCB in both HBM4 and advanced logic C2W/C2S, while its mainstream tools continued to r...
Company Results | PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP TB/BUY/Bt108.00/Target: Bt136.00) PTTEP reported a net profit of Bt12.7b in 3Q25, down 6% qoq, in line with our expectations but 8% below consensus estimates. Core profit declined 14% qoq, pressured by lower ASP and higher unit costs. Looking ahead, core profit in 4Q25 is expected to rebound qoq, driven by a 6-10% increase in sales volume and reduced unit costs. For 2025, PTTEP is not expected to record any impairment losses from the Mozamb...
Top Stories Company Results | PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP TB/BUY/Bt108.00/Target: Bt136.00) PTTEP reported a net profit of Bt12.7b in 3Q25, down 6% qoq, in line with our expectations but 8% below consensus estimates. Core profit declined 14% qoq, pressured by lower ASP and higher unit costs. Looking ahead, core profit in 4Q25 is expected to rebound qoq, driven by a 6-10% increase in sales volume and reduced unit costs. For 2025, PTTEP is not expected to record any impairment losses f...
Highlights • We expect 3Q25 net profit to flat qoq. • The decrease in unit cost is sufficient to offset the impact of the reduced ASP. • Earrings are expected to recover qoq in 4Q25 due to increased sales volume. • Maintain BUY with a rolled-over target price of Bt136.00/share in 2026.
Top Stories Company Update | PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP TB/BUY/Bt114.00/Target: Bt136.00) We expect 3Q25 net profit to be flat qoq at Bt13.3b due to decreased unit cost offsetting the impact of reduced ASP. However, earnings are projected to recover qoq in 4Q25, supported by an anticipated 8-10% increase in sales volume. We have revised down our 2025–26 earnings forecasts to account for a downward revision in liquid prices, higher unit cost assumptions and extraordinary items recorde...
Indonesia Initiate Coverage | Adaro Andalan Indonesia (AADI IJ/BUY/Rp7,350/Target: Rp13,000) We expect 2026 EBITDA of US$1.25b. AADI’s expansion capex will end in 2025, and we assume annual maintenance capex of US$220m-250m from 2026 onwards. With expansion capex ending, free cash flow should rise and can be used for dividends. Based on ADRO’s historical 40-95% DPR, we forecast AADI’s dividend yield at 12-16%. Coal prices and demand have historically increased in winter, and will thus support AS...
PTTEP's net profit in 2Q25 was 7% higher than our estimate but in line with consensus expectations. The yoy and qoq declines in 2Q25 earnings were mainly due to lower ASP and rising unit costs. PTTEP declared a Bt4.1/share interim dividend (XD set for 8 Aug). 2H25 core earnings are likely to improve hoh, supported by increasing sales volume and a downward trend in unit costs. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt155.00.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China & Hong Kong Property & Property Management Mainland market continues to weaken, while the Hong Kong residential market progresses with destocking; we highlight CR Land and CR Mixc as top picks. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Archi Indonesia (ARCI IJ/BUY/Rp770/Target: Rp1,280) Well-timed turnaround with true potential waiting to be unlocked. Results Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ/BUY/Rp4,750/Target: Rp6,000) 1H25: ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Delta Electronics (DELTA TB/SELL/Bt142.50/Target: Bt65.00) 2Q25: Earnings drop yoy and qoq, missing expectations. PTT Exploration & Production (PTTEP TB/BUY/Bt116.00/Target: Bt155.00) 2Q25: Net profit is better than expected and in line with consensus expectations. Update Plan B Media (PLANB TB/BUY/Bt5.65/Target: Bt7.70) Neutral view on 2Q25 earnings. PTT Oil & Retail Business (OR TB/SELL/Bt13.00/Target: Bt12.80) ...
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