Jm Ab (Buy, TP: SEK170.00) - BUY on the dip

JM’s share price has been volatile over the past three years, trading in waves on recovery expectations. As the Swedish residential market has yet to recover, expectations have recently fallen further, and the stock has reached old lows. However, we expect a market recovery in late-2025 and 2026, and we believe this has created an attractive entry point. KPIs (unit sales and unit starts) are our Q1 focus point, as profits are still affected by cycle lows and a trailing profit recognition. We hav...

JM AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at JM AB bought 2,267 shares at between 159.388SEK and 168.400SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last tw...

Recovery delayed again

Jm Ab (Hold, TP: SEK170.00) - Set to be a slow recovery

The Q4 results were a mixed bag, with revenues beating expectations, boosted by project starts, impairments resulting in an EBIT miss, and mixed KPIs. However, we believe the Q4 spike in unsold inventory (new all-time high) likely poses JM’s biggest challenge entering 2025, as it could hold back new starts by tying up capital. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK170 target price; we still expect a profit recovery to take longer than is reflected in the share price and see a better risk/reward elsewhere...

Share down on inventory and CF

Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations

Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.

Sentiment to improve in 2025e

Jm Ab (Hold, TP: SEK170.00) - The long way back begins

While newbuild sales should continue to recover in 2025 on lower interest rates (SEK), lead times are long, and EPS is unlikely to reach pre-2022 levels in our forecast period. However, we expect Q4 housing sales and starts (KPIs) and EPS to be above consensus. Moreover, as we believe newbuild sales have passed the trough and the share price has fallen the last 6 months, we have upgraded to HOLD (SELL) and raised our target price to SEK170 (155).

Amortisation proposal not appreciated enough

Nordic shorts: Embracer and Nibe highlighted

Shorts update

2025e: Strong cash flow & earnings growth

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Normalisation likely to take time

Q3 EPS was 62% below consensus and our forecast. Units sold were slightly more than we expected, but we believe discounts were used. JM stated it had issued redundancy notices to 150 workers, on rising costs on started projects, and lower EBIT margins than its long-term target. It also said it would take time for the market to normalise, despite falling interest rates. The inventory of unsold homes climbed to an all-time high, a trend that appears to have continued in Q4. We believe consensus re...

Will start to accelerate in 2025e

Nordic shorts: ahead of the reporting season

Shorts update

KPIs and profits reflect cycle-lows

While the sector has rallied on expectations of a recovery in Nordic CRE and residential starts, there are no signs of an actual recovery yet. With our base case still for a gradual sales recovery in 2026, our longer-term estimates remain below consensus, reflecting slow profit-recognition under IFRS – the latter also underlies our expectation of declining revenues and EBIT YOY in Q3 for several names we cover. Our sector top picks are still Skanska, NCC and Veidekke, while we see downside risk ...

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Near-term in line, long-term below

Ahead of JM’s Q3 results (due at c08:00 CET on 22 October), we are broadly in line with Infront consensus on EBIT (slightly above on units started and sold). However, we find consensus too bullish on the speed and strength of a P&L recovery longer-term (2026e), and reiterate our SELL and SEK155 target price.

Nordic shorts: H&M and highlighted ideas

Avg. short interest (top 100) of 5.4% vs. 5.3% one month ago. Highlight: H&M

Nordic shorts: NIBE, ISS and highlighted ideas

Avg. short interest (top 100) 5.3% vs 5.6% 1m ago. Our short covering ideas have performed strongly. Highlights: Nibe and ISS.

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Q2 EPS well below expectations

Q2 EPS of SEK1.16 was 41% below consensus. While unit sales, a key KPI, were better than expected, this was driven by a sale of rental apartments, below historical EBIT margins as seen in recent deals. Also, the CEO said the road to recovery will be long given the high inventory of homes for sale and weaker consumer affordability ratios, and that rising costs are pressuring EBIT margins. We reiterate our SELL and SEK155 target price.

Bodes well for H2'24 and into 2025