Nordic shorts: Embracer and Nibe highlighted

Shorts update

2025e: Strong cash flow & earnings growth

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Normalisation likely to take time

Q3 EPS was 62% below consensus and our forecast. Units sold were slightly more than we expected, but we believe discounts were used. JM stated it had issued redundancy notices to 150 workers, on rising costs on started projects, and lower EBIT margins than its long-term target. It also said it would take time for the market to normalise, despite falling interest rates. The inventory of unsold homes climbed to an all-time high, a trend that appears to have continued in Q4. We believe consensus re...

Will start to accelerate in 2025e

Nordic shorts: ahead of the reporting season

Shorts update

KPIs and profits reflect cycle-lows

While the sector has rallied on expectations of a recovery in Nordic CRE and residential starts, there are no signs of an actual recovery yet. With our base case still for a gradual sales recovery in 2026, our longer-term estimates remain below consensus, reflecting slow profit-recognition under IFRS – the latter also underlies our expectation of declining revenues and EBIT YOY in Q3 for several names we cover. Our sector top picks are still Skanska, NCC and Veidekke, while we see downside risk ...

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Near-term in line, long-term below

Ahead of JM’s Q3 results (due at c08:00 CET on 22 October), we are broadly in line with Infront consensus on EBIT (slightly above on units started and sold). However, we find consensus too bullish on the speed and strength of a P&L recovery longer-term (2026e), and reiterate our SELL and SEK155 target price.

Nordic shorts: H&M and highlighted ideas

Avg. short interest (top 100) of 5.4% vs. 5.3% one month ago. Highlight: H&M

JM AB: 1 director

A director at JM AB bought 1,600 shares at 205.800SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing...

Nordic shorts: NIBE, ISS and highlighted ideas

Avg. short interest (top 100) 5.3% vs 5.6% 1m ago. Our short covering ideas have performed strongly. Highlights: Nibe and ISS.

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Q2 EPS well below expectations

Q2 EPS of SEK1.16 was 41% below consensus. While unit sales, a key KPI, were better than expected, this was driven by a sale of rental apartments, below historical EBIT margins as seen in recent deals. Also, the CEO said the road to recovery will be long given the high inventory of homes for sale and weaker consumer affordability ratios, and that rising costs are pressuring EBIT margins. We reiterate our SELL and SEK155 target price.

Bodes well for H2'24 and into 2025

Sold units on the rise

Low visibility on near-term margins, but we expect sold units to almost double y-o-y in Q2e. BUY on improving market and upcoming starts.

Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Spicing up a weak stew

We have raised our Q2 and 2024 forecasts, following three announced divestments in Q2: two regulated rental developments and one commercial plot. While our increased unit sales reflect the two divested rentals (278 units in total), our focus will be on underlying consumer sales. Despite our expectation of a market recovery for consumer sales (housing units sold), we expect the road to EPS recovery to be long. We believe the share price reflects a well-functioning housing market, which we find to...

Nordic Shorts: HTRO & MIPS in focus

Avg. short interest (top 100) 5.8%, unchgd. vs. 1m ago. Most shorted basket (created 24 Mar) has now printed a golden cross. Highlights: Hexatronic and MIPS.

Expectations running ahead

We continue to see upside potential for diversified construction (Skanska, NCC and Veidekke), but downside risk for residential developers (YIT, JM, Peab and Selvaag Bolig) that have rallied on improving market expectations while new housing sales remains lacklustre. We await the adaptation of the recently EU-approved Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). We see a mixed picture for EPS ahead of the Q2 reporting season. We keep a neutral sector view, and still recommend a stock-pickin...

Key takeaways from the Nordic Property Tour 2024

Strong demand in logistics rental market during H1 2024. Residential companies more likely to grow through acquisitions than development. Bond financing margins are converging on bank margins across the sector.

NCC AB - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis

Summary NCC AB - Company Profile and SWOT Analysis, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Key Highlights NCC AB (NCC) is a provider of construction and property development services. It carries out the construction and development of residential and commercial properties, roads, industrial facilities, public buildi...

CMD: Rebound in the making

Nordic Shorts: screening with HUSQ & EMBRAC highlighted

Nordic Shorts update:HUSQ & EMBRAC highlighted