reports
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
GREEK ENERGY | Greek Power Play Handbook: 2025 Edition
Charging in a new era; Prefer power companies over refineries – The Greek energy market underwent structural shifts in 2024, with disruptions in Eastern Europe driving high intraday volatility in electricity prices, which is likely to persist as long as Greece remains a net electricity importer. Since regulatory interventions were lifted in 2024, power generation units saw a step-up in their spark spreads, capturing 2-digit premia vs baseload prices amidst daily price spikes, while the retail ma...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
GREEK ENERGY | Greek Power Play Handbook: 2025 Edition
Charging in a new era; Prefer power companies over refineries – The Greek energy market underwent structural shifts in 2024, with disruptions in Eastern Europe driving high intraday volatility in electricity prices, which is likely to persist as long as Greece remains a net electricity importer. Since regulatory interventions were lifted in 2024, power generation units saw a step-up in their spark spreads, capturing 2-digit premia vs baseload prices amidst daily price spikes, while the retail ma...
- Sanjeev Bahl
HELLENiQ ENERGY - Margins troughed in Q3, expect Q4 improvement
HELLENiQ ENERGY’s Q324 results were held back by a weak refining environment, as previously guided by the company, but showed an impressive operational performance. The company noted that the Q424 refining margin is likely to be $2/bbl to $3/bbl above the average for Q3. Q3 refining sales volumes of 4.163m tonnes were up 8% y-o-y, adjusted EBITDA of €183m was down 54% y o y and adjusted net income of €49m was down 77% y-o-y. HELLENiQ’s Q324 benchmark refining margin declined to $3.6/bbl, from $5...
- Sanjeev Bahl
HELLENiQ ENERGY - A good quarter, but softer margins expected in Q3
HELLENiQ ENERGY’s Q224 results showed a continuation of Q124 trends, with refining margins trending down but increased year-on-year oil prices and operational improvements driving sales and earnings growth. Q2 sales of €3,274m were up 9.9% y-o-y, adjusted EBITDA of €232m was up 42% y o y and adjusted net income of €73m was up 192% y-o-y. The Q224 HELLENiQ benchmark margin declined to $5.5/bbl, from $8.8/bbl in Q124, but was above the $4.4/bbl achieved in Q223. The company noted that the Q324 est...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
HelleniQ Energy | Longer refining path, greener destination
Strong 2024 & catalysts ahead; Buy – The robust results over the past two years along with the increase in the free float following the successful private placement of 11% of the shares in December 2023 have brought HelleniQ Energy in the spotlight in recent months, as manifested in the substantial increase in trading volumes in 2024. As refining margins still hover above mid-cycle levels ytd (c$15/bbl), we anticipate 2024 to be another year of robust profitability, estimating FY’24e group EBITD...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
HelleniQ Energy | Longer refining path, greener destination
Strong 2024 & catalysts ahead; Buy – The robust results over the past two years along with the increase in the free float following the successful private placement of 11% of the shares in December 2023 have brought HelleniQ Energy in the spotlight in recent months, as manifested in the substantial increase in trading volumes in 2024. As refining margins still hover above mid-cycle levels ytd (c$15/bbl), we anticipate 2024 to be another year of robust profitability, estimating FY’24e group EBITD...
- Sanjeev Bahl
HELLENiQ ENERGY - Testing the note
HELLENiQ ENERGY is a leading southern European refiner. Management is in the middle of a transformation programme that has seen the corporate structure streamlined. The group is now embarking on decarbonising the business and building up its renewable energy business, which will lead to it being better positioned for the future.
- Sanjeev Bahl
HELLENiQ ENERGY - Solid Q1, with a strong operational performance
HELLENiQ ENERGY delivered solid Q124 results, with group sales of €3,278m up 5.3% y-o-y, IFRS EBITDA of €350m up 25.4% y-o-y and adjusted EBITDA (mainly stripping out inventory effects) of €338m down 16% compared with Q123. The decrease in adjusted EBITDA was primarily due to the y-o-y decline in refining margins. Net income was up 16% y-o-y to €179m, while adjusted net income fell 35% y o y to €164m, for the same reason. HELLENIQ’s refining business had a good quarter, with volumes increasing 8...
- Sanjeev Bahl
HELLENiQ ENERGY - Dividend shows confidence in future
ELPE reported its final results on 29 February. Adjusted net income of €0.6bn was lower than our forecast of €0.64bn. A positive surprise was that the board is recommending a final dividend of €0.60 per share, which was above our expectation of €0.30 per share. We believe this reflects management’s confidence in the current shape of the business. The balance sheet has been strengthened year-on-year, with net debt reduced from €1.94bn (at end-FY22) to €1.63bn. Our forecasts are under review.
- Sanjeev Bahl
HELLENiQ ENERGY - Shareholders reduce holding
Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF) and Paneuropean Oil & Industrial Holdings (POIH) have announced that they have sold 33.6m shares in HELLENiQ ENERGY, representing 11% of the existing ordinary shares. These were sold via an international private placement at a price of €7.00 per share. Although this is a third-party transaction, this will benefit the liquidity of HELLENiQ ENERGY’s shares.
- Sanjeev Bahl
HELLENiQ ENERGY - Shaping up for the future
HELLENiQ ENERGY is a leading southern European refiner. Management is in the middle of a transformation programme that has seen the corporate structure streamlined. The group is now embarking on decarbonising the business and building up its renewable energy business, which will lead to it being better positioned for the future.
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK REFINERIES (HelleniQ Energy - Motor Oil) | Re(de)fining growth
Profitability holding up, valuations remain muted – Greek refineries have displayed noteworthy operational resilience through 2023, thanks to persistently strong refining margins (down just €0.8bn in 2024, when refining margins normalize to more sustainable levels. With the two stocks trading at c5x 2024e EV/EBITDA, at the low end of mid-cycle levels, we believe the current valuation does not capture the rising RES tilt in the profit mix (15-25% for HelleniQ and MOH respectively by 2025e). As su...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK REFINERIES (HelleniQ Energy - Motor Oil) | Re(de)fining growth
Profitability holding up, valuations remain muted – Greek refineries have displayed noteworthy operational resilience through 2023, thanks to persistently strong refining margins (down just €0.8bn in 2024, when refining margins normalize to more sustainable levels. With the two stocks trading at c5x 2024e EV/EBITDA, at the low end of mid-cycle levels, we believe the current valuation does not capture the rising RES tilt in the profit mix (15-25% for HelleniQ and MOH respectively by 2025e). As su...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2023 outlook | Clear and rewarding destination...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
MOH MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CCH COCA-COLA HBC AG
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
ADMIE IPTO HOLDING S.A.
QUEST QUESTBACK GROUP AS
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2023 outlook | Clear and rewarding destination...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
MOH MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CCH COCA-COLA HBC AG
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
ADMIE IPTO HOLDING S.A.
QUEST QUESTBACK GROUP AS
- Sanjeev Bahl
HELLENiQ Energy - Another strong set of results
HELLENiQ Energy reported Q322 adjusted EBITDA of €504m, c four times higher than Q321 (€125m) and c 25% ahead of consensus (c €404m; seven analysts). This was mostly driven by a strong performance in Refining, Supply & Trading, due to strong benchmark refining margins and exports (46% of total refining sales). In addition, HELLENiQ reported improved profitability of international subsidiaries, as well as a significantly greater contribution from RES (Renewable Energy Sources). Furthermore, impro...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Refineries | Fundamentals still healthy; regulatory intervention...
HelleniQ Energy Rating: Buy Target Price: €8.6 Motor Oil Rating: Buy Target Price: €22.5 Stock prices out of sync with fundamentals leaving positive risk-reward skew – Greek refineries are headed for a record year, with Q3 adj. EBITDA poised to triple yoy on our updated estimates following >300% growth in H1. From a price perspective, Greek Refineries have outperformed the ASE ytd (ELPE +19%, MOH +36%). Nonetheless, given the spike in 2022 profitability, there has been a massive de-rating in ...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Refineries | Fundamentals still healthy; regulatory intervention...
HelleniQ Energy Rating: Buy Target Price: €8.6 Motor Oil Rating: Buy Target Price: €22.5 Stock prices out of sync with fundamentals leaving positive risk-reward skew – Greek refineries are headed for a record year, with Q3 adj. EBITDA poised to triple yoy on our updated estimates following >300% growth in H1. From a price perspective, Greek Refineries have outperformed the ASE ytd (ELPE +19%, MOH +36%). Nonetheless, given the spike in 2022 profitability, there has been a massive de-rating in ...
- Sanjeev Bahl
Hellenic Petroleum - Record Q2 results
Hellenic Petroleum reported Q222 adjusted EBITDA of €535m, almost seven times higher than a year earlier (€79m) and c 50% ahead of consensus (c €350m; six analysts). This was driven by a strong performance across all divisions. Refining saw record-high EBITDA with strong refining margins and export performance, due to market disruption and energy security concerns, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with strong demand from improved economic activity. This was despite a scheduled maint...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Energy/Industrials | Positioning ahead of the fall
Power market in flux; prefer Mytilineos and refineries – Greek industrial/energy-exposed companies have had an eventful 2022 driven by sub-sector dynamics, general macro prospects and idiosyncratic factors. In power generation/supply, the sector remains in flux given the recent regulatory intervention, and, although generation and supply dynamics appear to broadly offset each other, there are several moving parts, not only regarding gas/carbon prices but also regulatory aspects that will determi...
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