reports
- Sanjeev Bahl
HELLENiQ ENERGY - Dividend shows confidence in future
ELPE reported its final results on 29 February. Adjusted net income of €0.6bn was lower than our forecast of €0.64bn. A positive surprise was that the board is recommending a final dividend of €0.60 per share, which was above our expectation of €0.30 per share. We believe this reflects management’s confidence in the current shape of the business. The balance sheet has been strengthened year-on-year, with net debt reduced from €1.94bn (at end-FY22) to €1.63bn. Our forecasts are under review.
- Sanjeev Bahl
HELLENiQ ENERGY - Shareholders reduce holding
Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF) and Paneuropean Oil & Industrial Holdings (POIH) have announced that they have sold 33.6m shares in HELLENiQ ENERGY, representing 11% of the existing ordinary shares. These were sold via an international private placement at a price of €7.00 per share. Although this is a third-party transaction, this will benefit the liquidity of HELLENiQ ENERGY’s shares.
- Sanjeev Bahl
HELLENiQ ENERGY - Shaping up for the future
HELLENiQ ENERGY is a leading southern European refiner. Management is in the middle of a transformation programme that has seen the corporate structure streamlined. The group is now embarking on decarbonising the business and building up its renewable energy business, which will lead to it being better positioned for the future.
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK REFINERIES (HelleniQ Energy - Motor Oil) | Re(de)fining growth
Profitability holding up, valuations remain muted – Greek refineries have displayed noteworthy operational resilience through 2023, thanks to persistently strong refining margins (down just €0.8bn in 2024, when refining margins normalize to more sustainable levels. With the two stocks trading at c5x 2024e EV/EBITDA, at the low end of mid-cycle levels, we believe the current valuation does not capture the rising RES tilt in the profit mix (15-25% for HelleniQ and MOH respectively by 2025e). As su...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
GREEK REFINERIES (HelleniQ Energy - Motor Oil) | Re(de)fining growth
Profitability holding up, valuations remain muted – Greek refineries have displayed noteworthy operational resilience through 2023, thanks to persistently strong refining margins (down just €0.8bn in 2024, when refining margins normalize to more sustainable levels. With the two stocks trading at c5x 2024e EV/EBITDA, at the low end of mid-cycle levels, we believe the current valuation does not capture the rising RES tilt in the profit mix (15-25% for HelleniQ and MOH respectively by 2025e). As su...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2023 outlook | Clear and rewarding destination...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
MOH MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CCH COCA-COLA HBC AG
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
ADMIE IPTO HOLDING S.A.
QUEST QUESTBACK GROUP AS
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2023 outlook | Clear and rewarding destination...
2022: The comeback – Greek equities staged an impressive comeback in 2022, outpacing most international markets with a 7% total return vs a 2-digit drop suffered by other European indices (and the S&P in EUR terms). Underpinning the ASE was certainly the better macroeconomic backdrop, with the Greek economy expanding by >5% in 2022 compared with c3% for the EU. Light positioning, healthy corporate profitability and more attractive yield gaps than in other regions were additional supporting facto...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
MOH MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CCH COCA-COLA HBC AG
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
ADMIE IPTO HOLDING S.A.
QUEST QUESTBACK GROUP AS
- Sanjeev Bahl
HELLENiQ Energy - Another strong set of results
HELLENiQ Energy reported Q322 adjusted EBITDA of €504m, c four times higher than Q321 (€125m) and c 25% ahead of consensus (c €404m; seven analysts). This was mostly driven by a strong performance in Refining, Supply & Trading, due to strong benchmark refining margins and exports (46% of total refining sales). In addition, HELLENiQ reported improved profitability of international subsidiaries, as well as a significantly greater contribution from RES (Renewable Energy Sources). Furthermore, impro...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Refineries | Fundamentals still healthy; regulatory intervention...
HelleniQ Energy Rating: Buy Target Price: €8.6 Motor Oil Rating: Buy Target Price: €22.5 Stock prices out of sync with fundamentals leaving positive risk-reward skew – Greek refineries are headed for a record year, with Q3 adj. EBITDA poised to triple yoy on our updated estimates following >300% growth in H1. From a price perspective, Greek Refineries have outperformed the ASE ytd (ELPE +19%, MOH +36%). Nonetheless, given the spike in 2022 profitability, there has been a massive de-rating in ...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Refineries | Fundamentals still healthy; regulatory intervention...
HelleniQ Energy Rating: Buy Target Price: €8.6 Motor Oil Rating: Buy Target Price: €22.5 Stock prices out of sync with fundamentals leaving positive risk-reward skew – Greek refineries are headed for a record year, with Q3 adj. EBITDA poised to triple yoy on our updated estimates following >300% growth in H1. From a price perspective, Greek Refineries have outperformed the ASE ytd (ELPE +19%, MOH +36%). Nonetheless, given the spike in 2022 profitability, there has been a massive de-rating in ...
- Sanjeev Bahl
Hellenic Petroleum - Record Q2 results
Hellenic Petroleum reported Q222 adjusted EBITDA of €535m, almost seven times higher than a year earlier (€79m) and c 50% ahead of consensus (c €350m; six analysts). This was driven by a strong performance across all divisions. Refining saw record-high EBITDA with strong refining margins and export performance, due to market disruption and energy security concerns, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, along with strong demand from improved economic activity. This was despite a scheduled maint...
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Energy/Industrials | Positioning ahead of the fall
Power market in flux; prefer Mytilineos and refineries – Greek industrial/energy-exposed companies have had an eventful 2022 driven by sub-sector dynamics, general macro prospects and idiosyncratic factors. In power generation/supply, the sector remains in flux given the recent regulatory intervention, and, although generation and supply dynamics appear to broadly offset each other, there are several moving parts, not only regarding gas/carbon prices but also regulatory aspects that will determi...
- Sanjeev Bahl
Hellenic Petroleum - Strong Q1 results
Hellenic Petroleum reported Q1 adjusted EBITDA of €99m, a 54% increase year-on-year and c 20% ahead of consensus (€82m; based on four analysts). This was driven by strong benchmark refining margins and Greek market recovery (fuel demand was up 16% y-o-y). It was partially offset by higher energy and CO2 costs and an approximate two-month planned outage at the Elefsina refinery. As a result of the outage, net production was 2,798k metric tons (MT), down 16% y-o-y; however, this was partially offs...
- Sanjeev Bahl
Hellenic Petroleum - Low dependency on Russian crude
Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, is making progress in its Vision 2025 strategy by building a 0.3GW renewable energy portfolio as of Q122. The company reported Q421 adjusted EBITDA of €138m, up 80% from Q420 (€77m), supported by a recovery in the refining sector. We expect Hellenic to continue to benefit from favourable refining margins and higher oil demand in Q122 and note that margins increased as an immediate reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, as natural g...
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Panagiotis Kladis
- CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy - 2022 Outlook | Playing Tug of War
2021: “life in the fast lane" – 2021 was quite an eventful year, with swings in risk perception as initial enthusiasm about vaccine progress was followed by concerns about inflation, a pivot in central bank policy (Fed) and the impact from the Omicron variant. As a result, after a 12% return until mid-May 2021, Greek stocks were flat in the remainder of the year, affected by the general de-risking mood and some idiosyncratic headwinds (liquidity drain from capital raisings and issuance activity ...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
PLAT THRACE PLASTICS HOLDING AND COMMERCIAL SOCIETE ANONYME
PLAIS PLAISIO COMPUTERS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
MOH MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CCH COCA-COLA HBC AG
QUEST QUEST HOLDINGS SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
ADMIE IPTO HOLDING S.A.
ENTER ENTERSOFT
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Panagiotis Kladis
- CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy - 2022 Outlook | Playing Tug of War
2021: “life in the fast lane" – 2021 was quite an eventful year, with swings in risk perception as initial enthusiasm about vaccine progress was followed by concerns about inflation, a pivot in central bank policy (Fed) and the impact from the Omicron variant. As a result, after a 12% return until mid-May 2021, Greek stocks were flat in the remainder of the year, affected by the general de-risking mood and some idiosyncratic headwinds (liquidity drain from capital raisings and issuance activity ...
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
PLAT THRACE PLASTICS HOLDING AND COMMERCIAL SOCIETE ANONYME
PLAIS PLAISIO COMPUTERS S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
MOH MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) CORINTH REFINERIES S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
ETE NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A.
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CCH COCA-COLA HBC AG
QUEST QUEST HOLDINGS SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS FINANCIAL HOLDINGS S.A.
ADMIE IPTO HOLDING S.A.
ENTER ENTERSOFT
Hellenic Petroleum | Moving past the low-margin era
Recovering fundamentals … – Following a volatile 2020, operating trends improved towards the end of 2021, with Brent prices rising as a result of declining inventories and crack spreads recovering on the back of improving demand. The bounce-back of product cracks is now evident across the refined product range, with gasoline having recovered to pre-pandemic levels, diesel cracks picking up momentum in Q4 and jet fuel cracks coming back to near ”normal” levels. On the margin front, recovering de...
For HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA, the environment deterioration entails a dow...
HELLENIC PETROLEUM SA (GR), a company active in the Integrated Oil & Gas industry, now shows a lower overall rating. The independent financial analyst theScreener just confirmed the fundamental rating of 4 stars out of 4, as well as the stock market behaviour of the title as moderately risky. However, environmental deterioration penalises the general evaluation, which is downgraded to Neutral. As of the analysis date December 28, 2021, the closing price was EUR 6.22 and its expected value was es...
- Sanjeev Bahl
Hellenic Petroleum - Recovery in oil demand supports operations
Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, reported Q321 EBITDA of €125m, up 90% from Q320 (€66m), with improved performance across all segments. We expect it to continue to benefit from favourable refining margins and higher demand for transport fuels in the coming months due to increased economic activity. However, this should be partially offset by higher operating costs due to sharply rising energy prices.
- Sanjeev Bahl
Hellenic Petroleum - Recovery in oil demand supports operations
Hellenic Petroleum, a leading oil refiner in Greece, reported Q321 EBITDA of €125m, up 90% from Q320 (€66m), with improved performance across all segments. We expect it to continue to benefit from favourable refining margins and higher demand for transport fuels in the coming months due to increased economic activity. However, this should be partially offset by higher operating costs due to sharply rising energy prices.
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