reports
- Russell Waller
Altice France bonds (Equal Weight) Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: ...
The consortium bid is for Altice France ex XpFibre (XP), Altice Technical Services (ATS), French Overseas Territories (FOT), Intelcia, and UltraEdge (UE). The consortium valued these assets at €4bn. Disclosure is limited, but we’ve done some more digging, and have found some accounts filed in France, that help us value these assets more accurately, we think.
- Russell Waller
Digi (Equal Weight) Orange (Buy, TP: €18.9, +27%) Telefonica (Reduce, ...
Press reports are suggesting that a Tef-Zegona deal in Spain is progressing. We wrote about that HERE. A deal will be tricky for a variety of reasons, but if Digi is a willing remedy taker and if Telefonica/ Zegona are willing to give very substantial remedies (which is a big if), then the deal might receive regulatory approval we think.
- James Ratzer
European Telecoms for 2026 Industry action required for further outpe...
Over the past 3 years, the EU telecoms sector has had a great run – up >50%, despite modest underlying revenue/ EBITDA growth. This has almost entirely come from a deserved upwards re-rating in the multiple as the risk profile across the sector diminishes – which has been a key theme of ours in the past few years given improved regulation. So, we feel this has now largely played out.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +26%) Safaricom buyout: More FCF accretive than ...
Vodafone and Vodacom have announced today that they will be taking control of Safaricom. Given the structure of the deal with Kenyan Government involving pre-paying dividends, we think the deal could offer better than expected accretion to Vodafone’s reported FCF for limited capital outflow.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice France Bonds (Equal Weight) Altice France Equity (Neutral, TP: ...
The valuation of fibre assets is important for all Telco investors, but especially those looking at Altice France and Altice International. In this report we look at recent fibre deals and see if we can draw any conclusions Over a month has now passed since the consortium bid for SFR (HERE); whilst face-to-face negotiations do not appear to be happening (as per Q3 calls), it would appear that negotiations via the press are in full swing – HERE and HERE – and back channel discussions are ongoing ...
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +30%) H1 26 - Multiple re-rating in play
Vodafone has reported a decent set of H1 results and guidance has been moved to the upper-end of the guidance range (albeit us and consensus were already there). We think there is still a story for the multiple to be re-rated further – and even though there is new dividend guidance today, we also think there is potential for incremental cash return to come at the FY results.
- Russell Waller
Altice France Bonds (Equal Weight) Altice France Equity (Neutral, TP: ...
The valuation of fibre assets is important for all Telco investors, but especially those looking at Altice France and Altice International. In this report we look at recent fibre deals and see if we can draw any conclusions from those deals about future valuations.
- Russell Waller
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Why you should be reading the Tariff Tracker – a leading SR indicator
We publish monthly front book pricing data in our Tariff Tracker product. In this report we show some new analysis looking at how front book tariffs are a good leading indicator for service revenue trends in mobile and fixed, including new work looking at discounted and undiscounted prices.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, £1.20, +40%) Q1 26: Clearer evidence of value over volu...
Vodafone’s Q1 results do show some signs of improving revenue growth in Germany with a more disciplined approach to pricing. We think Vodafone still looks very attractively priced at the moment, but we believe a longer-term outlook from management would help to underpin more confidence in the investment case.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU Telecoms: Half-time 2025 Review Sector has outperformed: More sele...
The European Telecoms continues to outperform: up 17% YTD vs. the market up 10%. While this is great to see, adding to the 12pp outperformance in 2024 and supporting our investment thesis of improving regulation, it does mean the equity upside story from here is becoming more selective.
- Russell Waller
- James Ratzer
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- James Ratzer
Vodafone to Virgin spectrum sale: More details revealed
As part of the Vodafone-Three merger (VOD3UK), the merging companies committed to sell a portfolio of spectrum to VMO2. The details of that spectrum portfolio have now been formally disclosed by Ofcom, which has published a notification listing the frequencies that are due to be transferred (LINK). In this note, we run through the final decisions and implications for potential UK revenue share.
- Russell Waller
NOS (Sell, TP: €3.11, -18%) Digi (Underweight) Altice International (E...
One of the key questions in European Telecoms at the moment is how successful will Digi be in Portugal, Spain and Belgium; and to a lesser extent, how successful can the challengers be in general: Salt, Iliad Italy, and so on. In this report, we take a top-down look at how spectrum drives success in European mobile, and what that means for future outcomes.
- James Ratzer
The company started seeing signs of recovery as subscriber losses begu...
As we expected, the UK merger completed this morning, so we wanted to take this opportunity to highlight the note we put out on Saturday, in which we published our new model (including the UK merger, and assuming Vodafone buys out the Hutchinson minority in 3 years’ time). The terms of the deal are as initially announced. We believe the value creation is +9p per share, included within our 120p price target. We still see >50% upside from current levels.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 120p, +56%) Was 135p Target price/ model update: T...
We don't usually aim to publish price target updates over the weekend, so please do forgive us, but with today being May 31st and Vodafone's desire to close the UK merger during H1 and at a month-end, we would like to think that the UK deal closing could be very imminent - and maybe even today.
- James Ratzer
Vodafone (Buy, 135p, +82%) FY 2025: Trying to move the debate on from ...
The broad theme of Vodafone’s results remains the same as in past periods: Germany has been disappointing and has been the main focus of the market, but other parts of the business have been able to offset it, with increasing weight now on Vodacom for FY26.
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