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Blair Levin
  • Blair Levin

Could the Trump/Carr Gambits Against CMSCA (and DIS) Backfire?

Recently, we published a note in which we laid out why we thought the FCC Chair’s investigation of CMSCA’s treatment of its network affiliates, like his prior investigation of DIS, was unlikely to lead to a judicially supported resolution; rather, the investigation was designed to provide Carr leverage in any FCC transaction involving CMSCA. We also just published a note discussing how the FCC and DOJ are likely to provide greater consolidation among broadcasters and cable channels, putting econ...

Jonathan Moreland
  • Jonathan Moreland

InsiderInsights Weekly Report: August 9, 2025

InsiderInsights Ratings of Companies with Open-Market Form 4 Purchases; Sales Filed at the SEC on the date above. We separate the real investment intelligence from the noise. Saving you time, and improving your research process

Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

CHTR Quick Hit: Charter Buys Back $0.5BN of Shares in July

Advance/Newhouse filed their latest Charter ownership disclosure today. The buyback amount was slightly lower than expected but given that we are only one month into the quarter, we are keeping our estimates for 3Q25 unchanged.

Charter Communications Inc: 1 director

A director at Charter Communications Inc sold 162,694 shares at 378.500USD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...

Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

Autumn for Broadband 2Q25

In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds remained nearly flat compared to a year ago (when adjusted for ACP impact) but were within the pre-pandemic norm. Industry subscriber trends have mostly stabilized over the past 3 quarters, but y/y growth remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Jonathan Moreland
  • Jonathan Moreland

InsiderInsights Weekly Report: August 2, 2025

InsiderInsights Ratings of Companies with Open-Market Form 4 Purchases; Sales Filed at the SEC on the date above. We separate the real investment intelligence from the noise. Saving you time, and improving your research process

Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

Comcast Post-2Q25 Model Update

In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results (here) and thoughts following the earnings call. The most significant changes are slightly lower broadband losses and higher FCF in 2025. No change to thesis. Price target is $37 (+12%).

Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

Charter Results Review & Model Update

This note belatedly covers 2Q results and model update. We also provide thoughts on EBITDA growth for the year along with other industry / Charter-specific themes emerging from the results. The major changes to the model are higher broadband losses and lower EBITDA in 2025. FCF is higher. We are close to consensus on EBITDA and slightly above on FCF. Our near-term price target is $450 (+60%).

Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

CMCSA: Thoughts following the 2Q25 call

In this note we provide our thoughts on connectivity revenue and EBITDA, the changes in pricing strategy, broadband ARPU growth and wireless net adds in back half of the year, fiber overbuilds, savings from tax reforms and usage of the proceeds. Finally, we touch on what to do with the stock.

Vikash Harlalka
  • Vikash Harlalka

CMCSA 2Q25 Quick Take Strong results; Broadband losses lower; EBITDA b...

The key focus going into today’s results were the magnitude of broadband losses and whether C&P EBITDA would grow. Comcast reported lower-than-expected broadband losses and C&P EBITDA grew slightly.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

New Cable MVNO – implications for Cable and Mobile operators

Charter and Comcast announced that they have signed an MVNO with T-Mobile that will target new business customers (here). In this quick note we provide thoughts on implications for Verizon, T-Mobile, Charter, Comcast, and the industry more broadly.

Blair Levin
  • Blair Levin

Media Consolidation: Will FOX (Like CMSCA and DIS) Be in a Trump Trans...

As the Skydance/Paramount deal has demonstrated, the Trump FCC will address media transactions through a political lens. In this note, we discuss the implications for the sector of FOX potentially finding itself in the same position as CSMCA and DIS when it comes to the upcoming media consolidation, as well as other implications of the Colbert Affair and the federal defunding of PBS.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

There is more Cable and Fiber M&A coming

This report provides a detailed update to our fiber forecast, with implications for the Fiber and Cable operators. The analysis suggests a strong incentive for Mobile and Cable operators to continue to consolidate assets. The analysis leverages the latest release of FCC data coupled with new features and data sets that have been built into Broadband Insights.

Blair Levin
  • Blair Levin

Summer Policy Wall of Worry (Part I)

Summer. In this note, we quickly review where we are on policy issues of interest to investors to help understand what to worry about this summer and what they can safely ignore until the fall.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

CHTR Quick Hit: 2Q25 Buybacks Hit $1.7BN

Advance / Newhouse filed their latest Charter ownership disclosure earlier today. The buyback amount of $1.7BN for the quarter was almost double the Consensus estimate of $0.9BN. It is a touch below our estimate of $1.8BN, but we were miles ahead of Consensus. Buyback estimates for the quarter and the year should be revised higher.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

Updating Price Targets for One Big Beautiful Bill Act

We have updated the price targets for our coverage as a result of the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Prior to the bill becoming law, we had already added the value of tax reform to our price targets on a probability-weighted basis. We have now increased the probability from 75% to 100%.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

CMCSA quick hit: Comcast continues to make the right pricing moves

After launching 5-year price guarantee plans in April, Comcast has now announced some tweaks to plans that are discounted for one year, and to rack rates. These announcements are less meaningful than the 5-year plans, though they continue to inch gradually in the right direction. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.

Blair Levin
  • Blair Levin

Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options

Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...

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