reports
- Russell Waller
Altice France bonds (Equal Weight) Altice France equity (Neutral, TP: ...
The consortium bid is for Altice France ex XpFibre (XP), Altice Technical Services (ATS), French Overseas Territories (FOT), Intelcia, and UltraEdge (UE). The consortium valued these assets at €4bn. Disclosure is limited, but we’ve done some more digging, and have found some accounts filed in France, that help us value these assets more accurately, we think.
- Russell Waller
Digi (Equal Weight) Orange (Buy, TP: €18.9, +27%) Telefonica (Reduce, ...
Press reports are suggesting that a Tef-Zegona deal in Spain is progressing. We wrote about that HERE. A deal will be tricky for a variety of reasons, but if Digi is a willing remedy taker and if Telefonica/ Zegona are willing to give very substantial remedies (which is a big if), then the deal might receive regulatory approval we think.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice France Bonds (Equal Weight) Altice France Equity (Neutral, TP: ...
The valuation of fibre assets is important for all Telco investors, but especially those looking at Altice France and Altice International. In this report we look at recent fibre deals and see if we can draw any conclusions Over a month has now passed since the consortium bid for SFR (HERE); whilst face-to-face negotiations do not appear to be happening (as per Q3 calls), it would appear that negotiations via the press are in full swing – HERE and HERE – and back channel discussions are ongoing ...
- Russell Waller
Iliad (Equal Weight) Q3 25: Weaker French trends – but Q4 outlook bett...
Iliad has had a slightly weaker quarter overall for trends – French SR trends have slipped to +0.0% y/y from +1.4% y/y in Q2 25 (adjusting for the deconsolidation of OpCore), and French EBITDAaL growth is -6.9% y/y from +10.7% y/y in Q2 25.
- Russell Waller
Altice France Bonds (Equal Weight) Altice France Equity (Neutral, TP: ...
The valuation of fibre assets is important for all Telco investors, but especially those looking at Altice France and Altice International. In this report we look at recent fibre deals and see if we can draw any conclusions from those deals about future valuations.
- Russell Waller
Iliad (Equal Weight) Q2 25: Solid results overall despite worsening F...
Iliad has had a solid quarter overall, but French SR trends are clearly being impacted by the weakness in mobile pricing. There is a school of thought that pricing is weak because SFR is trying to hurry up the M&A process by being aggressive on price, HERE. If true, this implies that M&A will fix pricing one way or the other; either through market repair if a deal is done, or by SFR changing tack if a deal cannot be agreed
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Russell Waller
NOS (Sell, TP: €3.11, -18%) Digi (Underweight) Altice International (E...
One of the key questions in European Telecoms at the moment is how successful will Digi be in Portugal, Spain and Belgium; and to a lesser extent, how successful can the challengers be in general: Salt, Iliad Italy, and so on. In this report, we take a top-down look at how spectrum drives success in European mobile, and what that means for future outcomes.
- Russell Waller
Iliad Q1 25: Solid results, but focus on M&A in Italy and France
Summary: Iliad has had a solid quarter overall, but French SR trends are clearly being impacted by the weakness in mobile pricing, and although Italy is performing OK, we do not believe Iliad when they say they don’t need M&A in Italy (as they did on this Q1 call), as we value Italy at a negative NPV including the cost of spectrum renewal. SFR is the only French telco yet to report; in terms of a read-across: The IFER tax (that knocked c7pp off EBITDA growth for Iliad this quarter) will not impa...
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +35%) Altice France (SFR); High Yield (Overweigh...
Last night Bouygues announced a surprise change to tariffs and updated some of its guidance. The new tariffs revolve around discounts for multiple SIMs, and follow on from Iliad’s family plan announcement on 1 October. We give our take on the new plans and the impact to the market in this short piece.
- Jonathan Chaplin
2Q24 Broadband Trends: Are fiber builds accelerating?
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we explore whether fiber builds are accelerating and how it will impact Cable’s subscriber growth. We also reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Altice Pre-3Q24 Model Update
This report covers changes to our model to incorporate recent management commentary at investor conferences. We have increased broadband losses estimate. We also lowered revenue and EBITDA slightly. The company needs to stabilize EBITDA and reduce leverage. Progress on the first remains sluggish and the second won’t be easy. We remain on the sidelines.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?
When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Iliad (Equal Weight) Q2 24: Strong performance, but slower MSR growth...
Iliad has posted yet another quarter of good results; key SR trends are all slightly better, as is EBITDAaL inc and ex BTS. For those looking for a read across to SFR results later today, French MSR growth is a touch slower, as are both French fixed and mobile net adds, which could mean SFR has better KPIs but weaker SR trends in our view (albeit the back book changes from SFR could be a key offset).
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Most Preferred) Altice International (Most Preferred) ...
Sotheby’s has announced that it has sold a minority stake to ADQ, an Abu Dhabi-based investment and holding company for US$1bn. Under the terms of the agreement, “ADQ will acquire newly issued shares of Sotheby’s to reduce leverage and support the company’s growth and innovation plans” – details are thin, but in this short piece we look at how the proceeds might be used and how the price compares to our valaution.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.