reports
- Russell Waller
- Jonathan Chaplin
Broadband market growth slower in 1Q24
Broadband industry growth slowed in 4Q23. We wondered, exiting the quarter, whether growth would level off or slow further in 1Q24. Based on the data we have collected so far, it appears that growth has slowed further, and possibly quite materially. We suspect slower growth will impact all operators, although for fiber, it should be partly offset by footprint expansion.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice International Q4 23: Good numbers, all disposal options seem ...
Altice International reported a solid set of results today. The war in Israel has impacted the Israeli numbers, but broadly as expected. Portugal continues to perform very nicely, and overall the guidance suggests that ATCI, like NOS (read HERE), see minimal impact from Digi in 2024. The guidance looks sensible (conservative), but German construction revenue could be a big delta to numbers, and the impact here remains uncertain.
- Russell Waller
Billionaires compared Is it right that Xavier Niel businesses have t...
The European Telco landscape is dominated by three high profile billionaires. Patrick Drahi, John Malone, and Xavier Niel. They all have multiple debt silos, and large empires, but the bonds trade at very different spreads. In this note, we look at why that might be the case, and in particular, if the Niel businesses deserve to trade at tighter spreads. We think they do, which means that Xavier Niel should be able to continue to raise funds cheaply (albeit the Iliad spreads widened after the Tel...
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice France Does Teads hold the key to delevering?
A break-up of Altice International, is, we are told, option A for delevering at Altice France. According to press reports however, there is a gap between the offers made for Altice Portugal and the amount that Patrick Drahi wants (€7bn of proceeds wanted vs €5bn-€6bn offered); because Altice International debt will have to be repaid in the event of a sale of Portugal, €5bn of proceeds might not be enough to persuade Drahi to sell, as the amount of cash that could be up-streamed might be too smal...
- Russell Waller
Altice France Does Teads hold the key to delevering?
A break-up of Altice International, is, we are told, option A for delevering at Altice France. According to press reports however, there is a gap between the offers made for Altice Portugal and the amount that Patrick Drahi wants (€7bn of proceeds wanted vs €5bn-€6bn offered); because Altice International debt will have to be repaid in the event of a sale of Portugal, €5bn of proceeds might not be enough to persuade Drahi to sell, as the amount of cash that could be up-streamed might be too smal...
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Altice How much is Sotheby's worth?
Patrick Drahi’s net worth is an important topic for all three Altice silo bondholders. We first wrote about that HERE. We update those thoughts in this report, based on the recent financial results at Sotheby’s. We evaluate performance since Sotheby’s was taken private and give our thoughts on valuation as well.
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Vodafone (Buy, TP: 140p, +111%) Iliad (HY coverage, but not rated) I...
On Tuesday of last week we received notification of a remedy proposal for Orange-Masmovil in Spain (HERE), which we thought could encourage other 4-3 deals in Europe. Less than a week later, Iliad has proposed a merger (really a takeover) with Vodafone in Italy. In this note, we run through our thoughts on the proposed deal.
French M&A: Is it possible? Proprietary survey suggests GUPPI ratio ...
On Iliad’s Q3 call, Iliad said that it had attempted M&A “seven times” before, but that it was no longer possible due to “the size of the companies merging and the complexities from an anti-trust perspective”. In this report, we update the diversion and GUPPI ratios from our recent proprietary survey, to see if Iliad is right.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Iliad Q3 23: Good results; read across for SFR/Altice is not good; F...
Iliad continues to perform very nicely in KPI and SR terms in France and results are better sequentially in Italy. Group EBITDA trends are better too inc and ex the BTS changes, but its hard to know what underlying trends are country by country
- Russell Waller
Altice International Portugal valuation update
Ahead of the Portugal deep-dive call on Friday 20th October, 11am, 4am UK time (register HERE), we update our Altice International SOP, looking at comps for previous NetCo deals (updating our FastFiber valuation as part of the process), cross-checking our ServCo estimates vs our Digi top-down forecasts and comp-ing ServCo to other ServCo valuations as well. The attached will be the slide deck for the call.
- Russell Waller
Altice France and Altice International How much cash can be up-stream...
News moves pretty fast with Altice. In the last week or so, Les Echos has reported a possible €3bn stake sale at Altice France; there have been reports there is a live Portugal sale process, and now it would appear that a break-up of Altice International is on the cards. We update our thoughts on these reports in this short piece
- Russell Waller
What is Altice International worth in a break-up scenario
News moves pretty fast with Altice. In the last week or so, Les Echos has reported a possible €3bn stake sale at Altice France; there have been reports there is a live Portugal sale process, and it would now appear that a break-up of Altice International is on the cards.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Altice: How a BT takeover could help to solve debt issues Could Drahi...
Conventional wisdom would say that to delever one needs to sell rather than buy assets. However, in this deep-dive note we explore the left-field idea that launching a full takeover of BT could actually help Drahi to increase his liquidity as one option to help support the deleveraging of Altice France by over 1x.
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